Undressing "Bikini" Results

Former Spanish Prime Minister Gonzales came to Belgrade to establish the facts about the second round of local elections in Serbia and he submitted a report to the OSCE chairman on December 27 in Geneva. That document recalled that "respect and protection of human rights is the obligation of every state", that "a democratic state is based on the will of the people expressed through legal and fair elections" and that "respect for every individual is the basis of democracy and a legal obligation for the state".

In an accompanying letter, Gonzales informed the OSCE chairman that the political crisis in Serbia was also caused by the dramatic breakup of the former Yugoslavia, war in the neighborhood, grave economic situation, problems that come with the transition process but added that "there are other elements". Those other elements include "structural failures of the election system which allowed forgeries of or changes of the will of the people" and "obstacles facing independent media and serious obstacles in gaining free and equal access to the public media".

Gonzales added that "ways should be sought to examine the court rulings which "significantly) upset the expression of the will of the people as was shown at the local elections of November 17 in connection with certain municipalities. It is up to the Yugoslav authorities to find a way to meet their international obligations, not only in regard to the OSCE but also in regard to the international treaty on civil and political rights (which Yugoslavia ratified)".

Gonzales also feels that "it is more than recommendable" to improve the election system in Yugoslavia as soon as possible and advised reforms aimed at respect of "pluralism of thought in the publicly owned media and freedom of information in other media".

Finally, Gonzales said the OSCE has to put itself at the disposal of "all interested parties in the FRY to facilitate a dialogue with the aim of finding a peaceful and constructive solution to this political crisis" if the political forces in the FRY agree to ask for OSCE assistance.

An average person would say that Gonzales made himself quite clear, that OSCE chairman Flavio Cotti made himself clear in a December 27 telephone conversation with Slobodan Milosevic "who personally invited the OSCE mission to come and establish the facts about the election dispute" and "asked him to send a reply by December 30 at the latest". It seemed that the seasoned international diplomats had made themselves clear until FRY Foreign Minister Milan Milutinovic and the regime media spoke up.

Besides his statement that the election results resemble "a woman in a bikini", Milutinovic will be remembered for saying the OSCE got things confused in the report. He said the report was wrong to state that the opposition had won in nine Belgrade municipalities and "in some towns such as Kragujevac, Uzice and others". He didn’t explain what was wrong with that; he just laughed as if no explanation were necessary.

A day later the New York Times reported that Milutinovic had asked the OSCE not to publish the Gonzales report. The formulation on nine Belgrade municipalities did cause some confusion because the Belgrade city assembly is not mentioned specifically. Later an explanation was issued saying the formulation was wrong and that an annex to the report specified that the Zajedno coalition had won a majority in the city assembly and eight municipalities.

Milutinovic also said the Gonzales report was balanced but preliminary because the OSCE is due to debate it at some future date. Besides that it will be debated in domestic institutions. That formulation could mean the OSCE will debate the report at some point, who knows when, although Danish Foreign Minister Nils Petersen, who took over as OSCE chairman on January 1 said clearly at a December 27 meeting with Cotti and Gonzales that the OSCE council will meet on January 2 or 3 and debate Milosevic’s reply to the report. Petersen probably thought Milosevic really would reply to the report.

Serbian Parliament Speaker Dragan Tomic interpreted the Gonzales report even more freely in an interview for Tanjug. He said three things are very important; "that election laws in Serbia and Yugoslavia are democratic and in accord with the OSCE principles (Gonzales never wrote that), that the SPS-JUL-ND election victory is indisputable (which no one in Serbia disputed in the places they did win) and that "the opposition parties won a majority in local elections in several smaller and larger towns in Serbia".

The extent to which that opposition victory is negligible can be seen in Tomic’s statement that "this is nothing new because in the 1992 local elections the opposition won more municipalities than at the 1996 elections". Of the independent media, i.e. "the media which call themselves independent" Tomic said that "unfortunately they are increasingly independent of the truth".

Even the Gonzales report is not especially important because "the report that was presented to us is actually a recommendation or information for that international organization". And a final jewel from Tomic: "The report refuted the worst false accusation launched against Serbia from abroad recently". He didn’t specify the accusation.

State media reports run along the same lines. On December 27, while protesters were shouting Victory, Victory in Belgrade, the RTS reported that the OSCE had recognized only the leftist coalition victory at the elections. Politika daily published the Gonzales letter under the title: Decision To Be Taken Within Yugoslav System Institutions, a formulation Gonzales never used once. The conclusion drawn in Politika’s comment in its new year’s edition is that Gonzales is completely siding with the Serbian authorities and that even the Clinton administration lent support to that kind of report!

All that leads to the conclusion that Milosevic won’t accept Gonzales’ recommendation to recognize the November 17 election results in all disputed municipalities (but perhaps he will in some), that he doesn’t really care what the international community will think of his interpretation of the report and that he does not want to take note of messages from everywhere that he should respect the will of the electorate.

Foreign reactions all mentioned the immediate acceptance of the Gonzales report.

In an effort to gain time, as usual but this time with the hope that the demonstrations in Serbia will stop and the whole mess go away, the Serbian regime will probably mess around and lie for a while longer. In that time, relations with the world, deteriorated after the election fraud, will get even worse. There is constant speculation of possible new sanctions although the assumption is that Russia would veto that proposal in the UN Security Council.

Official Serbia is loudly blowing the Russian horn, constantly reporting that Moscow sees the elections as an internal affair as if that can change anything in Serbia’s reality, as if the US couldn’t impose unilateral sanctions along with some other influential states. Even if no one imposes sanctions, many analysts believe that the Serbian economy, despite regime optimism, has definitely hit rock bottom and can’t survive without foreign aid and that aid won’t be coming as long as Milosevic’s policies are in place. There won’t be any return to the OSCE or the UN and there won’t be any of the wanted and needed forms of normalization of cooperation with the world.

Given that state of affairs, the situation in Serbia can’t be expected to calm down, let alone get better and provide a better life for the population. The Serbian regime can probably survive a while longer thanks to the special police forces but certainly not for as long as they want. As FRY President Zoran Lilic said in his New Year’s message to the nation: "No one’s power is above the will of the people".