Real Power

Since November 17 and the failed attempt at election fraud when the most serious political crisis in Serbia began, there has been enough snow to read tracks reliably. Milosevic has the need to check out everything and everyone that caused bloodshed in Belgrade and many beatings of the people who have been asking for respect of their will for weeks. He’s had enough time to look into everything and the Serbian president could soon say what he saw. Something like that is expected of him, primarily in Vienna where the OSCE will discuss the Serbian local elections again on January 16. OSCE diplomats said there’s nothing to add to the Gonzales report and that the ball is in Milosevic’s corner and he has to say clearly whether he accepts the report or not.

Something similar is being said by many SPS officials who are waiting to be told definitely whether they won the November 17 local elections in Belgrade and Nis or not. The people close to Milosevic conveyed one message of a "legally indisputable" certain victory already but that was before the Gonzales commission wrote its report. In the meantime, SPS members have been calling for the constitution of local councils in places which they won for sure. Press reports said Belgrade Mayor Nebojsa Covic is wavering but the fact that no one is talking of constituting the Belgrade city assembly any longer shows that something’s going on and that Milosevic could change his mind although he said clearly before and just after the elections that "Belgrade must not fall".

What Milosevic could have noticed easily so far, waiting for his associates’ tracks to show up, is that his loyal membership is confused by the new situation in which the accumulated effect of the opposition demonstrations are visible daily along with the effects of his hesitating in finding a way out of the mess. Just prior to the counter-rally on December 24, party leaders explained that the rally was the end of the whole local election story. Branislav Ivkovic, the SPS Belgrade board chief, (the man who said he didn’t know who was organizing the counter-rally) personally called a meeting of the people who organized the counter-rally participants in local SPS organizations and told them what to do. Someone asked him if the whole thing wasn’t risky since the opposition was already on the streets and Ivkovic said the whole thing would be over after the counter-rally. He added that the Zajedno coalition would be forced to get off the streets. He also promised maximum security measures to prevent anything unexpected from happening.

"The counter-rally had a catastrophic effect," said one middle-rank SPS official who attended the meeting with Ivkovic. "Belgrade came up short because people knew what could happen on the streets. Every district in Serbia had to provide 100 buses full of people and most of them did. Municipal organizations in Belgrade were asked to bring in up to 10,000 people each, up to twice the number of votes we won at the latest elections. We all later touched up reports and claimed we’d brought in several thousand people instead of 500 or less. I don’t know what Ivkovic wrote in his final report but I think everyone close to Milosevic tells him only what he’d like to hear. I’m not sure the people who keep him informed are telling him that an increasing number of our members are scared or unhappy with what JUL is doing. And the membership is demanding that the situation with JUL be cleared up as soon as possible so that we know whether the ruling party is us, the Socialists, or the JUL chiefs like Zoran Todorovic who seems to be directing events following the local elections."

Since November 17, Serbian Parliament Speaker Dragan Tomic, SPS General Secretary Gorica Gajevic, federal deputy Prime Minister Nikola Sainovic and whoever else has to has appeared in the media. Nebojsa Covic has been the most persistent in keeping silent. He first accepted the opposition victory in Belgrade (despite orders from his party chiefs not to comment on anything) and then kept quiet after the court ruling on who won leaving the impression of a Socialist who’s ashamed. Rumors are growing daily about Covic’s determination to resign in protest over the election dirty dealings in which he said "only the students are clean". What Milosevic’s assessment of Covic’s tracks will be in the end will be seen in the next SPS reshuffle. What we know for sure is that Covic had a long meeting with Milosevic on January 6. When his Belgrade city hall associates called to wish him all the best in the new year he mentioned "the truth which we’ll also need". That evening Covic spoke for 20 minutes at an SPS main board meeting and mentioned the truth again after someone asked him to distance himself from rumors of his alleged resignation.

The overall belief is that Milosevic’s next step should be serious changes in the government. That was first indicated by Politika daily’s economics commentator who said something like that was being rumored in well-informed circles and then asked a question to indicate the direction of the changes - can directors of state and private companies be ministers? That question indicates Serbian Prime Minister Mirko Marjanovic could soon resign "due to reasons of health" and take several ministers and prominent SPS personnel with him.

What Milosevic had to have seen in the past two months is that the number of his allies is growing smaller daily both at home and abroad. One the left, the only completely loyal organization is JUL which is creating problems in his ruling SPS. His New Democracy (ND) coalition partner refused an invitation to join the organizing of the counter-rally saying that’s not the way to solve problems. Some more prominent ND officials were seen celebrating the new year on the streets, "outside system institutions".

Of the people who were seen as natural allies of the regime, Milosevic can count on the police in future as well. In that regard, the judiciary is also prone to manipulations. The army, which many people hastily listed among allies of the students and opposition, is visibly trying to distance itself from everything and indirectly telling the regime that it can’t count on the military to do its dirty work. The church, which backed him while he was riding the wave of nationalism, definitely abandoned Milosevic a few days ago. Similar things have been happening with many intellectuals who sided with Milosevic once.

Things are cooking in the media as well although they are still claimed to be one of Milosevic’s most important levers of power. The Serbian state TV (RTS) and Politika are still following the old road but the pro-regime Vecernje Novosti daily has been showing signs of returning to the basic principles of journalism. That could be a directive or a simple copying of the paper’s Frankfurt edition which reported well on the street protests in Serbia.

The Montenegrin state leadership is also backing away from Milosevic. After an interview to Radio Budva by Montenegrin parliament Speaker Svetozar Marovic it became obvious that President Momir Bulatovic, Prime Minister Milo Djukanovic and Marovic are no longer afraid of openly criticizing the unreasonable behavior of the Belgrade authorities even in the domestic media. So far, their criticism has been in the foreign media.

That loss of fear is perhaps the most important loss and crack in the regime’s side since November 17. London daily The Independent noticed that recently, claiming that fear has disappeared from the streets of Belgrade and that Milosevic probably can’t believe his eyes - people are making fun of him and his rule every day. That fact was pointed out recently by Srbobran Brankovic of the Institute for Political Studies in Belgrade. He said that mood was spreading rapidly in the rest of Serbia: "After the elections Milosevic openly sided with his local thugs. Now we have a situation that was unimaginable recently in Nis, Pirot, Leskovac where every mention of his name draws 10 minutes of booing and whistling. Booing Milosevic isn’t just happening in far away Belgrade any longer. Now every farmer who comes to his local center can see everything the RTS doesn’t report," Brankovic said.

One of the reasons being mentioned why Milosevic is hesitating to take a decision on the elections is his wish to see the attitude of his domestic and foreign partners. The Russians are the only ones he could list among allies although the entire world called him "the irreplaceable factor of peace and stability" in this part of the world up to November 17. Since that stage is emptying fast and the number of people willing to continue paying the price of the unreasonable political decision to disregard the will of the electorate, the RTS could soon think up a new slogan to raise morale. Without the Montenegrins.