A Weak Serbia For An Integral Bosnia

Neither political circles in Sarajevo nor the public in Bosnia have come forward with a common stand on current developments in Serbia. The media have shown a fair amount of ignorance about what is going on with the exception of the Sarajevo daily Oslobodjenje and its pro-opposition Belgrade correspondent, who has been reporting in detail about the events in the Serbian capital.

State-media reporters have so far declined to comment on the protests in Serbia. Their delight with the fact that Serbia has once again been pushed into instability was more than apparent, but it seems that none of them are prepared to take sides in the regime versus opposition conflict. The prevalent opinion among Bosnian officials and reporters in the early stages of the protests against the election fraud in Serbia was that some leaders of the Zajedno coalition could pose an incomparably bigger threat to Bosnia-Herzegovina and its population than Slobodan Milosevic himself. None of them have forgotten that Zoran Djindjic had supported Radovan Karadzic in his conflict with the Serbian president. Much less are they prepared to forget Vuk Draskovic's outbursts of nationalism, as they put it, before the war broke out.

Both Draskovic and Djindjic had the opportunity to clarify their positions in interviews for Sarajevo's Television 99. It seems that Draskovic has succeeded in boosting his reputation from bad to worse by advocating a Serb-Moslem federation on 85 percent of Bosnia's territory, which would then be firmly integrated with the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia. During the interview, the television staff received hundreds of phone calls by individuals who swore at Draskovic and his hosts in a less than civilized manner. Zoran Djindjic, on the other hand, had two interviews but picked his words very carefully on both occasions. It is most interesting that he stressed his strong support for the Bosnian Serb Republic and his reputation of a "hardline nationalist", but explained that his nationalism went only to lengths not threatening the interests of other nations. He underscored he would keep supporting the RS only if it acted in a democratic manner and respected human and other rights of its population.

An association of intellectuals called Circle 99 organized a round table debate on the events in Belgrade. Although Zarko Papic, a Belgrade intellectual employed by an international organization in Sarajevo for several months now, did his best to underline and explain to his hosts the significance of the struggle for democracy in Serbia, the Sarajevo side was notably reserved about his viewpoints. One of the participants, film director Mirza Idrizovic, called the Zajedno coalition the worst group of nationalists he had ever seen and said they would go as far to "paint themselves black to gain power".

One of the few who voiced their support for the Serbian opposition was another film director, Vladimir Gojer (also vice-chairman of the SDP). He said it was important that not only Milosevic must be forced to step down, but so should the present authorities in Bosnia and Croatia. The dilemma of how to declare one's self on developments in Belgrade is probably best reflected by the Circle 99 conclusion that support should be given to the Belgrade protest, but not the people leading it.

The first and so far only reaction by the Bosnian authorities came after the violent clashes in Belgrade. Vice-president of the Bosnian council of ministers Haris Silajdzic condemned police action, but warned that Bosnia would support the Serbian opposition only if it was prepared to recognize and respect the integrity and sovereignty of Bosnia-Herzegovina. In his opinion, the Zajedno coalition has not done so yet. Bosnian president Alija Izetbegovic said in an interview a few months ago that a weak Serbia and a democratic Croatia were the best options for Bosnia's survival. That strategy is in complete disaccord with the present position of the Bosnian government, who are officially in favour of a democratic Serbia. A democratic state can by no means be weak, so it is possible that Izetbegovic changed his opinion. However, one must not rule out the possibility it is still his belief that only totalitarian regimes can be strong.

Radenko Udovicic

Croatia

Democracy is dangerous !

Milosevic spells disaster for Serbia, Serbia is our enemy, so their disaster spells advantage for us, say Croatian politicians

Latest events in Serbia are being followed with unbelievable restraint in Croatia. Most media are acting as if all this is happening somewhere in Latin America. What is more, news from Belgrade are broadcast as "elsewhere in the world today", after the hostage crisis in Peru and some other events Croatian television considers more important. As none of the ranking HDZ officials have come forward yet to comment on what is going on next door, all assessments have so far come from state-employed newsmen. Most shocking was a recent prime time news comment by Obrad Kosovac, who said without any hesitation that an undemocratic Serbia was most convenient for Croatia as it is, and that a democratic Serbia would actually pose a serious threat to

Croatia !

A similar but somewhat more subtle comment was made two weeks ago by Carl Gustav Stroehm, who said Djindjic and Draskovic were more dangerous for Croatia than Milosevic himself, because he thought they were Serb nationalists still dreaming of a greater Serbia. Stroehm believes that they could start another war for Serbian territorial expansion if they came to power.

The belief that Slobodan Milosevic is the best man for Croatia is based on two things. One is that Croats can easily be persuaded that since Milosevic spells disaster for Serbia, Croatia's enemy, he also spells advantage for Croatia itself. That is what Kosovac was getting at. The other explanation is slightly more profound but more exact too: Milosevic is Croatia's strategic partner in the division of Bosnia, he is "one of us", as Croatian president Franjo Tudjman has said on a number of occasions, so it would be dangerous to replace him with someone else.

The uncertainty factor is there too, for Tudjman's and Milosevic's eventual departure will inevitably spell radical changes in Croatia's internal and foreign policy. The Bosnian issue is more open than ever. Tudjman is just about the only ranking Croatian politician advocating the division of Bosnia, but not one of the opposition leaders is either strong or determined enough to prevent that from happening.

The Belgrade protest marches were in the focus of attention during a rally by Zagreb's citizens against the state takeover of Radio 101. Everyone, including the opposition, was furious about the fact that Milosevic and Tudjman, Belgrade and Zagreb, Serbia and Croatia were given equal treatment in the world those days. "Any sort of comparison, not to mention drawing a parallel between Milosevic and Tudjman, is an insult not only to our president but also to all Croat citizens, for Croatia is a democratic country unlike Serbia", said Zdravko Tomac, vice-president of the Racan-led SDP. Nevertheless, Tomac - one of the most outspoken adversaries of Bosnia's division - supported the struggle for toppling the Serbian regime. "The west knows that the Serbian opposition is not democratic, apart from Vesna Pesic. However, even if it is worse and less democratic than Milosevic's regime itself, the west will insist on recognizing the election results of November 17 and free media as the basic prerequisites for getting a democratization process in Serbia underway. It is in our best interest that neighboring countries are democratic too, so we should support all those in favour of fair elections and free media, no matter what we think of the Serbian opposition", Tomac said. He assessed that only those who want to stall democracy in Croatia had a valid reason to support Milosevic, and that replacing a bad Milosevic with an even worse Draskovic would eventually result in a genuine democrat coming to power. Other Croatian opposition leaders have not made any comments on events in Serbia to this day.

Boris Bratic