Family Ties

If all of this wasn't so horrible, it would only be stupid and disgusting. That is, if at the moment we are above all fascinated by the stupidity, we should definitely not lose sight of the other qualities of the thriller which we are acting and living in. The election committees in Belgrade and Nis, as the latest news goes, have recognized the victory of the opposition in those cities, which is an awfully stupid ending, since it turns out that the whole show was absurd and that the enormous drama was unnecessary and false. But, what if what we have here turns out to be a mock ending, as we have had before? Hasn't it become normal for a certain court to instantly dispute it? Two days ago news was issued that Milosevic was prepared to recognize all but Belgrade, and is now surrendering Belgrade, yet it is not known what is to become of the other unrecognized cities. Prior to that it was announced on a number of occasions that all recommendations of the OSCE were to be recognized, while further back, through the mediations of the Italian Minister of Foreign Affairs, the opposition was advised in a well-intentioned manner to abandon all claims. The local "institutions of the system" have for the past two months been amusing themselves with mutual annulments, calling up new and newer elections, re-counting the old ballots and partially recognizing the primary results. As far as they are concerned, this is a never-ending game and there is no reason to call it off now. I see no reason why SPS and JUL would not lodge appeals at the court over the decision of the Election Committee in Belgrade since they have already ascertained that the opposition is made up of members of the fifth column, foreign hirelings and traitors who are waging a special war. I also don't see why the courts would stop esteeming the arguments of the government, as long as they feel that it exists.

However, even if he wanted to, Milosevic is no longer in a position to simply sound the end of this game by recognizing the election results, nor could the opposition peacefully celebrate such a thing as a victory. Since, in the meantime, one man has paid with his life, one is seriously wounded and many have been beaten up. In the meantime, a larger number of victims were demanded and planned, threats were made of a state of emergency and police curfew, walks throughout the city have been forbidden and a new total isolation from the rest of the world was announced. In that time, Milosevic has laid at stake literally all that he could and had, and that stake can no longer be pulled out.

The "movement for November 17" apart from the opposition, students and hundreds of thousands of citizens of Serbia, has been joined by Montenegro, the Church and the entire international community as well, while the army has proclaimed its neutrality. Therefore, if Milosevic could defend his stand in connection to that date, its final outcome would mean that Serbia would be left without Montenegro, without the University, without foreign embassies, diplomacy and foreign policies, without the Church and its members, without the larger cities and, naturally, without the opposition. Such an ideal of a rural and unconscious claustrophobia can definitely not be deemed as acceptable by a larger part of the socialists either. Milosevic himself is possibly wavering, yet that actually constitutes Mira Markovic's greatest dream. It seems as though her comprehension of peace can be deduced to eliminating all her adversaries and moving away from all that she does not like. The Church is, of course, backward; the opposition is an unnecessary bourgeois burden: the Montenegrins have disappointed her by their attitude towards the West; the students have been hopelessly manipulated; cities are the instigators of the petty-bourgeoisie and counter-revolution and Europe is enslaved. This madam would feel best in the company of the former Paul Potta, or the late Enver Hodza from the days of his friendship with Mao's China.

During the two-month-long demonstrations throughout Serbia all eyes were turned towards that conflict between the opposition and the regime. Yet all this time inside the regime an obvious enormous drama was and still is unfolding with Mira Markovic in its midst. The fact that Milosevic is irrationally waiting and falling into larger misfortunes can no longer be explained in any way other than by the paralyzing effect of his wife's blind fanaticism. Milosevic personally knew how to go to the very end never asking how much it would cost, yet he also knew how to withdraw when he would realize that the end was truly near. Mrs. Markovic either thinks that she has found herself on the brink of her great dream and that she just needs to endure a bit longer, or she feels that all is collapsing, that the last walls of the fortress of justice and equality are falling, that dark forces are closing in unstoppably from all sides, and believes that it is her duty to wage that hopeless battle with all means to self-destruction.

The current crisis in Serbia, which is still threatening to turn into bloodshed and terror, is by large, a family drama. Milosevic, who had always known how to maintain power with confidence, is no longer capable of conceiving any maneuver and seems to have utterly lost heart. He probably clearly sees that this madam is leading him to destruction, but all of his energy had stemmed from her, and she cannot be stopped. Their people in the meantime, so it seems, are waging a true war from which the public is mostly excluded, and they are the only ones who are acquainted with the rules. There might be some sense in dividing them into two camps, the more moderate and the more rational ones and the hard-liners and less flexible ones, yet that division closely corresponds to the differences in profits, privileges and political mortgages. Those who have a lot to lose and those who know that they have been too keen find it easier to radicalize their stand in order to defend the regime. Some of them are loyal to Mira Markovic, yet most of them would definitely feel more secure if Milosevic was to start taking action. Both sides take the demonstrations as an argument for relenting, in other words, for a decisive refusal and employment of force. In this battle the largest casualties so far were probably sustained by the courts and election committees. Their contradictory decisions are not simply proof that in these "institutions of the system" better and worse people exist, those who are honest and brave and those others. It seems more probable that they received different, contradictory instructions and submitted to different authorities. The judiciary, therefore, was the main arena of this political conflict in which the stand of Mrs. Markovic initially clearly won all the way to the Supreme Court yet now it seems as though the relation of power is shifting, so that all of a sudden new facts are easily uncovered and different decisions are made.

Therefore, it seems that JUL and Mrs. Markovic are losing the battle, but since Milosevic cannot shake off her influence and finally pass judgment, he and his regime are losing that battle as well. Which means that, with all admiration for the persistence of the protest movement, Mira Markovic's enormous involuntary credit should not be overlooked by anyone in the future triumph. It is important not to forget that in order to prevent ourselves from being overly filled with enthusiasm and overestimating the freedom-loving and democratic potentials of Serbia and the power of the opposition.

If she had not taken such an active part in compromising and destroying the regime, it wouldn't have been possible to shake it so easily from the outside. Neither the Church, nor the Academy would have condemned it; the Montenegrin government wouldn't have been so emboldened; Tijanic would have still been a minister; Nebojsa Covic and Mile Ilic would still be members; the courts would peacefully claim that they are just and fair; world powers wouldn't be threatening, setting demands in principle, and would not be worrying about democracy and human rights, but would instead be protecting the local guarantor of peace and stability.

But in case this degenerated regime is demolishing primarily out of internal and even family reasons, that does not mean that this country hasn't deserved anything better. And what exactly it is that Serbia deserves and what it can accomplish is to be seen shortly. This liberation movement has opened up enormous, probably unreal hopes. The opposition is now faced with a difficult task to make as much as is realistically possible out of it, to decisively and carefully head for a government take-over, to forgo any vindictiveness and to transfer the freedom won on the streets and squares into the institutions.

Also it should be taken into account that people such as Draskovic and Djindjic, whose political maturity and responsibility has not been convincingly proven, still have to conquer their mutual rivalry and wariness, while the regime in its agony shall not spare them. If until now, during the two-month-long demonstrations they still haven't learned to resist all pitfalls and traps, if they are not capable of constructing a strong and stable hierarchy of interests and priorities, if they fail to bind their parties tightly and form a stable and serious political front together with the Civil Alliance, maybe even Mira Markovic won't be able to help them.