Playing With Fire

"We reached an agreement on January 9 that the National bank of Yugoslavia and the federal government should take decisive action in order to prevent the further devaluation of the dinar, in other words, that the amount of money printed over the holidays be covered with hard currency. Last Friday's session was interrupted and will continue on January 17, and by that time we will see what has been done. Montenegro will certainly do what it must to protect its interests," Montenegrin vice-premier Slavko Drljevic said, commenting on the recent devaluation of the Yugoslav currency. Drljevic says the Montenegrin government was in a panic after the appearance of fresh bills on the streets of all major towns, adding that competent authorities have been sent out to determine the total amount. No one in Montenegro dares estimate the sum yet, although rumour has it that some three billion dinars have been printed. The post office and some unidentified institutions are being blamed for spending 1.5 billion dinars printed over the holidays to cover their debts, and the daily Pobjeda reveals that money-printing started at the beginning of the election campaign, when another 1.5 billion dinars were put into circulation.

Montenegro cannot deal with another devaluation, and the republic will have no choice but to introduce its own currency if Serbia continues to print money, Drljevic said.

"It is very difficult to estimate losses or gains from monetary disruptions. In the long run, everybody is at a loss. Another devaluation would be fatal for Montenegrin and the entire Yugoslav economy. Montenegro has warned that fire is no longer to be played with and that it will do everything in its capacity to protect itself, says Milutin Lalic, the manager of a Montenegrin agency for economic restructure and foreign investment.

How would Montenegro protect itself ?

Lalic mentioned "options which now seem impossible". Money-printing has jeopardized the privatization process. "Privatization in the tertiary sector (trade, tourism, transport, etc..) is suffering heavily from instability and inflatory speculations. There is fear that the 1993 hyperinflation might happen again. Foreign investors are reserved, they want time to reconsider their ventures and a longer grace period. Daily turbulation disrupt the market, and our overpriced capital becomes even more expensive, which discourages demand. In other words, this is not a good time to sell capital, money-printing and privatization just don't go together", Lalic says for Vreme.

In expectation of answers from the Belgrade meeting, the Montenegrin authorities are looking for the people responsible for the inflation in the republic. An eminent banker says the job was done by a network of dealers, having admitted he once had a network himself.

"This is the work of some new kids on the block", says an experienced dealer.

It is therefore no surprise that the value of the German mark rose and then

dropped steeply in Montenegro.

"Constitutional capacity"

Thanks to our efforts to promote Montenegro as a region attracting foreign investment, a significant number of direct contacts between local and foreign firms has been achieved on the basis of relatively small investments. Foreigners are cautious and unwilling to take risks. That is why it is of vital importance for Montenegro to integrate with all relevant international institutions able to guarantee investments and provide credits. If the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia fails to reintegrate with the international community as soon as possible, Montenegro will use its "constitutional capacity" to ask for admittance in the above-named institutions on its own. We will not allow the loss of another year for selfish and ephemeral political interests. (Milutin Lalic)

Montenegro

Three Times "B"

The President of Montenegro and the ruling Democratic Party of the Socialists Momir Bulatovic went alone to Herceg Novi in 1997, while the President of the Government Milo Djukanovic spent the night of the New Year’s Eve in Budva with the President of the Parliament Svetozar Marovic. Is this yet another proof that Slobodan Milosevic has divided the most powerful people in Montenegro? The rumors of this kind were heard also before, but now they seem more credible since they are supported by dissonant statements of the Montenegrin leaders. Namely, in response to the proposition of the opposition that the Montenegrin socialists should join the democratic coalition of the country and in that way bring down the regime of Slobodan Milosevic, the President Momir Bulatovic gave the statement that "the key to the survival and development of the SRY lies in the cooperation and mutual respect of the ruling parties of Serbia and Montenegro, that is, of those parties that gain the support of the majority of the electorate."

At first glance, President Momir Bulatovic has too easily shook off the statements of the President of the Parliament Svetozar Marovic and the Prime Minister Milo Djukanovic.

Bulatovic has, however, announced that the statements made by individuals, if not considered within context, can not put out of force the Resolution of the Montenegrin (read: DPS) Parliament about the events in Serbia, which is such that even Slobodan Milosevic would have signed it. A few hours before Bulatovic’s statement, Marovic has repeated, after his meeting with American congressmen, the most radical statement given to Radio Budva, that is, his threat that Montenegro could step out of the federal parliament. The Prime Minister Djukanovic, answering the question of Vreme, has stated his belief that in Serbia reason will prevail and that in the opposite case, Montenegro will use all the capacities provided by the Constitution. The President of Montenegro has even denied his statements intended only for the foreign public but published also by the local media: in the Blic daily Bulatovic denies the most sensitive parts of his well known interview to the French Figaro: "I did not say that the President Milosevic admitted to me the theft of the votes in Nis and Belgrade and the similar," the President argued.

The threats in the form of heading their own way into the international community and the announcement of printing their own currency have supporters gathered around the new program of the Montenegrin government, which does not correspond to what persistently promotes the couple from Dedinje.

The fact is that from the two statements of Marovic which have circulated in the world press, only the first one was published, from the third-hand sources, in the Pobjeda daily. There was also drama in the Montenegrin state media around the publishing of any kind of attitude of the government that stands out from the parliamentary resolution’s framework. The Montenegrin TV read the whole interview which Predrag Bulatovic gave to the Nedeljni Dnevnik, in which he stressed his devotion to the Socialist Party of Serbia and Milosevic. The mentioned Bulatovic is the chief of the Club of Representatives of the DPS, but also the chairman of the Board of Executives of the Radio and Television of Montenegro. The Pobjeda daily did not publish a single word from that interview, which was a sign of the behavior of the government media depending on the impact from the top. As the opposition to Marovic, Djukanovic and the majority of their associates, the line called "The Three B" - Momir, Predrag and Pavle Bulatovic, the Federal Minister of Defense - was constituted. Furthermore, the news leaked that Pavle was nominated by Momir to be the new president of the federal government. There is a gap between the two lines, which will get deeper or be filled, depending on the events in Serbia.