The balance of power

Pavle Celik is a magistrate who advocated the formation of professional police and wanted to put an end to socialist oppression in the former Yugoslavia. He was the first commander of the former federal police special brigades, who had to choose a side when the conflict in the former Yugoslavia broke out and led Slovenian police in clashes against the Yugoslav federal army (former JNA). Celik is certainly one of the most qualified individuals to assess the use of riot police in mass demonstrations. He gained useful experience during a training course in France back in 1969, and applied it upon his return to the former Yugoslavia.

V: From an expert's point of view, what is significant about the ongoing rallies in Belgrade and other Serbian cities ?

C: The most important thing, and I keep repeating this to my students, is that a social balance of power is being established between the regime and the opposition. In such circumstances, the police should best remain neutral. The police ought to keep their cool and remain tolerant and wise, which is possible only if they don't take any sides.

V: To what extent do long rallies like this one affect the mind of the police ?

C: Quite a lot. Boys who came to Belgrade from southern Serbia were probably brainwashed by their commanders that they are up against hordes of foreign mercenaries and fascists, and it must have been a shock for them to see three groups of peaceful protesters - union workers, students and opposition supporters. The only not so peaceful demonstrators are those who support the regime. They also had to adjust to completely new rules and working habits in Belgrade, where everything has to be done by the book, not to mention that the opposition has so far acted wisely in terms of tactics.

It has educated and exhausted the police at the same time, winning a lot of sympathy for treating them with cakes, oranges and flowers. All that is something completely new for the police, a shocking experience in fact.

Such methods would confuse any police force, Slovenian officers included, not to mention those coming from places like Vranje, Prizren and Urosevac. It is only natural that the police is confused and that the regime no longer has unreserved faith in it.

V: How long can the police remain tolerant? When do they lose their nerves ?

C: I don't think Serbian police will lose their nerves. There are too many of them. Although it is a logistical problem, the Serbian regime can always replace tired police with fresh forces. Milosevic had invested in a strong police force for years, giving it wider powers than the army, which is perfectly understandable from his point of view. It seems that he has prepared himself for the events we are witnessing. A 40,000-strong police force would be sufficient to cover the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, that is, Serbia and Montenegro, and the Serb republic in Bosnia. This area has a total population of around 10 million, and we know that there are at least 150,000 police in Yugoslavia only ! Serbia boasts of 150,000 policemen against a population of 9.5 million, or one police officer per 63 inhabitants.

That is by far the biggest police force in Europe - Slovenia, for example, has one officer per 280 inhabitants.

V: Is there a successful method of playing tricks on riot police ?

C: Tactics applied by demonstrators are no secret. The most effective ones are taking positions throughout the city, surrounding important buildings, breaking down the police into small units, provoking them and erecting barricades. In order to break down the force, demonstrator simply gather upon a number of locations simultaneously and thus prevent an efficient intervention, as they can always communicate with wireless devices.

If they happen to be in a single large group, they keep moving and changing their direction, which affects the concentration of the police. I see that the Belgrade protesters have mastered the basics of wearing down the police.

V: Would a police intervention be legitimate now, as the demonstrators are once again being treated roughly after two months of protests ?

C: I'd say that the conduct of the police has so far been legitimate and fair. One of the reasons for such behaviour is probably the awareness among the police that the demands for recognition of opposition victory in the elections are totally justified. As far as an intervention is concerned, I can say with a fair degree of certainty that no state in Europe can make a voluntary decision to use force without consulting relevant continental organizations first, especially if the protesters are acting peacefully as those in Belgrade are. I doubt there is any chance of Tianamen happening in Belgrade.

V: You know well many of your former colleagues, some of whom are still with the force in Serbia. Do you have message for them ?

C: Yes, I've seen many of them on television, but I don't want to mention any names. I saw some of them on television on December 22, when they were received by Yugoslav president Zoran Lilic. One of them was my former secretary, the deputy commander. All of them were present when the special brigade under my command was formed back in 1975 in the president's office.

Many of them look jaded and worried. I would say that the protesters are applying a wise, effective and original method of exhausting the police and putting genuine pressure on them. All I can say to my colleagues is that they should remain patient, impartial and cool. In that case, they will not bring shame upon themselves or their profession.