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February 1, 1997
. Vreme News Digest Agency No 278
Stojan Cerovic's Diary

Maturity of the Movement

This last but one scene of the drama in Serbia has possibly turned out to be a bit prolonged, at least as far as the world television crews' taste is concerned, yet none of them dare to leave, anticipating that the delay is only increasing the chances for an exciting finale. I presume that for them it seems as though they are watching an acrobat who is supposed to jump into a shallow pool and is slowly climbing up the endlessly high ladder while the circus band is playing faster and louder by the minute.

But for the citizens of this country the meaning of the scene is different and, perhaps, more important than the finale itself. On one side the protests are still going on, expanding, changing shape or are simply being doggedly repeated, while on the other hand, the illusion of a normal situation is being nurtured equally as persistently. All seems blocked, as though nothing really important has happened for too long and as though the regime and the opposition, the citizens and the students are exhausting themselves needlessly.

However, the rule applied in times of war is in effect here which says that the regular army is losing when it is not winning, while the guerrilla is winning when not losing. The two sides simply do not have the same status so that the mutual blockade does not have the same meaning for them, hiding important dynamics inside itself. Therefore, for example, by standing for seven days at Terazije the students gained a lot more than the police even though their "dialogue" has been concluded with a draw through the mediation of the Church and Patriarch Pavle. As an institution of force and coercion, the police is not achieving anything when standing and is only maintaining the balance or is putting up a senseless blockade. On the contrary as could be seen, the students and the citizens have in all sorts of ways shown that they do not heed such force in the least. For the demonstrators' victory, whose main argument isn't force, it is utterly sufficient to successfully parry the police on its terrain. Therefore, in this war where the main goal is winning over the sympathies of the population, Milosevic has scored yet another predictable defeat. They say that it isn’t very smart for a person who falls into quicksand to struggle much, since he sinks quicker that way. This doesn’t mean that he shall not sink even if he does not move. Only in that sense is Milosevic doing the right thing in not doing anything yet no salvation is arriving from anywhere and there isn’t much of him left on the surface. His regime, with each passing day, is distancing itself and moving in a different direction from the citizens of Serbia. Both are headed in their own directions which is a problem for both sides, yet the citizens will find it easier to organize new government institutions on their own, than the old government shall be able to find new subjects.

The endeavors for a civic consolidation of the country is spreading from the very nature of today’s protests. Demanding the recognition of their electoral will people are on the one hand renouncing the government that had stolen their votes and are, at the same time taking over responsibilities for themselves and the entire community. This is where that discipline and self-control springs from in this rebellion which testifies to the maturity of the movement and to a clear will to rebuild society. There are no aspirations for a heroic defeat and no steps are made towards a conflict with the regime's force which is rather being bypassed and neglected. Milosevic is left to see what he shall do with himself on his own, while the movement is quickly and self-confidently establishing a republican principle of the citizens sovereignty.

That Vuk Draskovic and many others are speaking of reestablishing a monarchy is most certainly creating certain confusion, yet it doesn’t seem especially important to me. If someone feels that the crown is a handy emblem, that is simply a matter of taste. However, I do not believe that there are many people in Serbia today who believe that a king could replace solid democratic institutions and or who could in any way limit the rights of the citizens. I also fail to see how he could help in establishing such institutions. One could say a lot about the symbolic importance, but in somewhat more peaceful times, and definitely not before the country frees itself from the current absolutism.

Even on that symbolic level one should take into account Montenegro’s aversion, if someone here still seriously wishes to keep it in a joint state. That state has already been deeply demolished by Milosevic. Montenegro is turning its back on him due to the same reasons and equally decisively as the citizens of Serbia, with the difference that a completed institutional structure already exists there. That an arrangement is being announced by which Milosevic would become president of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, and Momir Bulatovic the prime minister does not necessarily lead towards a strengthening of the federal government. Such a Milosevic who has been whistled at and discredited to such a degree can no longer strengthen anything, and it seems as though even the loyal Bulatovic is in the minority in Montenegro. I would say that both are actually seeking at least temporary asylum in federal functions, although I concede that they themselves are nurturing greater hopes as far as their future is concerned. In order to make the unavoidable concessions and recognize the results of the local elections Milosevic has, or so it seems, decided to primarily secure himself, move away from the place of the most vehement conflicts and evade discussions about responsibilities. Maybe he still hasn’t made his ultimate decision, yet all chances are that from Serbia he shall flee to Yugoslavia.

However, since that place isn’t far enough I believe he shall not settle down there for long and shall, sooner or later, head somewhere further, yet at this moment that shouldn’t interest us too much. This movement for the transformation of Serbia has its natural rhythm; the citizens are demonstrating their capacities for patience and gradualism, and if Zoran Lilic's seat seems so attractive to Milosevic at the moment, I believe that he shall be able to deal with state protocol for a certain amount of time.

Many new temptations await Serbia, of which, possibly, the problem of relations inside the coalition Zajedno and rivalry over power might be opened up first, yet let that remain their own internal issue for now. Even though they are capable of putting spokes in their own wheels, I believe that no one can ruin the main results of this civic revolution in Serbia any longer. However, it is important to comprehend exactly what had happened, what type of victory is being realized now and what has been defeated.

The easiest way to explain this is by examining Serbia's relations with the outside world, since the nature of internal powers is clearly evident there and since relations towards the world has been one of the most difficult internal problems of this country for a long time. The political degeneration of the regime was apparent by the stands and reactions of the other countries towards him, and for those who did not comprehend that, the only thing left for them to do was to believe in the theory of a global conspiracy. Foolishness is narcissistic and brings the whole world to question, rather than oneself. The deepest communistic-nationalistic accord has been accomplished here precisely over that issue which is how collaboration between Milosevic and Seselj was possible, just as the radicals and JUL can always understand each other more easily amongst themselves, than with the democratic opposition.

For those extremists the most important issue of all was to evade a real confrontation with others and they simply know how to enjoy the feeling of being in the midst of an unfriendly environment. Which is exactly what has been irretrievably defeated and thrown off in Serbia now, because it had been going on for too long, because it was grotesquely over the top and had cost too much, and people very reluctantly agree to commit suicide. People have understood and accepted an open relationship toward others and that is the most important and deepest condition for individual and national maturity. That is also the only way in which to put the internal issues of this country in order in a democratic manner.

Namely, it has become clear that prolonging a confrontation with the rest of the world is very certainly leading toward internal conflicts. The ideal of an community, isolated from the world and internally harmonious, is perfectly impossible, except in the form of a reign of terror. Serbia has dangerously approached that edge, or has even partially lived in such circumstances. Now that it is extricating itself from it what it needs is brave, reasonable and responsible leaders, who shall at least be up to the task which the citizens are achieving on their own at the moment. Draskovic, Djindjic and Vesna Pesic have found themselves in that leading role which, perhaps, surpasses their powers. However, they are in the same boat now and each of them shall be held responsible in the face of this country's history. And no one should harbor illusions of being irreplaceable. The energy which has moved shall not easily allow itself to dissolve, change directions or demolish itself.

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