Who’s in the Running

Recently, during a conference held by the new Federal Government, the President of SRY, Zoran Lilic, issued an official statement to all journalists who were present confirming the coming to term of his mandate in June of this year, following which he "will be assuming other duties whose nature is yet to be determined". The fact that Lilic’s mandate is up and that he cannot run for the same office again is clearly indicated in the Constitution. However, his public announcement is so significant that it makes front page news.

The mandate, incidentally, of the President of Serbia, Slobodan Milosevic is also up this year. In his case the Constitution is also more than clear on his not being entitled to run a third time for the same office. However, in contrast to Lilic, Milosevic has not publicly admitted that he has read that part of the Constitution which deals with the mandate of the President of Serbia. That is why in the absence of that admission the public can only guess at what his next move will be. Some claim that it has been agreed that he will replace Lilic as President of SRY. On the other hand, others have "reliable information" that the "real experts" will soon find in the Constitution that which others "cannot find and cannot understand", and will thus permit Milosevic to go for third helpings.

Last week’s statement by the President of Montenegro, Miomir Bulatovic, that his party has supported and will support Milosevic’s candidacy for President of SRY — assuming SPS also stands behind that candidacy — can be taken as the most significant sign up to now of what it is the President of Serbia has up his sleeve this time around. That he has something was evident even at the time when Federal Premier Radoje Kontic announced the makeup of his new cabinet. Milosevic’s personal "bodyguard", Zoran Sokolovic, and "lawyer", Vladan Kutlesic, were included there, while his "personal diplomat", Milan Milutinovic, retained his seat in Parliament.

This threesome, according to certain opinions, would have the task of helping Milosevic transfer at least part of the authority he has as president of Serbia to the federal level, and to the position of the new President of SRY. However, the Federal Constitution makes no allowance for such authority since Zoran Lilic’s job description is quite clear on the strictly administrative nature of his duties. Montenegro (with or without Milo Djukanovic) apparently does not wish to enter into the re-drawing of the Federal Constitution. However, as Milosevic himself does not wish to be in Lilic’s all-too-narrow shoes, something must be done to ensure that the President of Serbia can continue to behave in his new position just as he did in the old one, i.e. with unchallenged authority. Keeping in mind two factors, Milosevic’s habits and the limits of the Constitution, Vuk Draskovic’s advisor, Dr. Milan Bozic, explained recently how the whole system might eventually function. According to him, Milosevic will adopt Caesar’s approach to his new position, according to which "Where I am is where Rome is, even if I’m not in Rome." The same, with minute differences, is also what many Socialists mean when they say "Sloba is where authority is." "As doorman in the Federal Parliament he would still manage to have more authority than Kontic and Lilic together," a member of the Socialist faction explains poignantly, and one fears accurately.

Should Slobodan Milosevic relocate to the Federal Parliament by the end of June, the presidential elections in Serbia could be held as early as September. We should know soon who else will be in the running as it is expected that all those who harbor such intentions, and are lately "feeling out the situation" with due caution, will make their final decisions in the coming weeks. The upcoming presidential elections could convincingly refute the thesis that "Serbian elections without Milosevic are like Hamlet without Hamlet." The list of potential candidates suggests very interesting and uncertain plots, outcomes, disloyalties, and a set of uncouth characters who threaten to only hit below the belt. The biggest unknown appears in the form of the Socialists who refrain from naming their candidates (assuming Milosevic does not decide at the last moment to remain in the existing cabinet). The Second Minister of SPS, Slavica Djukic Dejanovic, claimed in a recent interview that her party has many good presidential candidates. However, these remain unknown to the general public as under the shadow of Milosevic nothing could take root. When it takes root, it would methodically be pruned and cared for in a timely fashion. Thus the Socialists are a party without a strong "second man in command," but with countless mediocre characters who are virtual unknowns on the list of significant politicians. In their party caucus discussions the President of FRY, Zoran Lilic, is mentioned as a man who "diplomatically fulfills a difficult role" without ever "showing disrespect for his boss." As for just deserts, it would be difficult to choose a more deserving man than the Parliamentary President of Serbia, Dragan Tomic. Admittedly, those in the know point out Milosevic’s awareness of Tomic’s low rating among voters, and for that reason press mention of this "candidate" is more self-promotion than anything else.

The biggest question for the Socialists and for all those who harbor thoughts of joining the pre-election campaign remains Milorad Vucelic. The news that after a long time Vucelic met with Slobo, and that he has been called back to the fold after the blunder at the "Pale juncture" is interpreted differently. In the camps of several potential presidential candidates there is general surprise at confidential polls of public opinion in which it appears, as it is claimed, that the nationalist issue is still not dead; that is to say, Milosevic (or his candidate in the role of a "trusted Serb") or Dr. Vojislav Seselj might try to dictate the pre-election developments.

On the opposition side, one thing is virtually certain — the candidacy of the leader of the Radicals, Vojislav Seselj. The Homeland Committee of SRS will probably declare its position on this by the beginning of April, after which Seselj will officially join the list of candidates. As far as the ratings go, the leader of the Radicals stands fairly high in most public opinion polls — both the real ones, as well as those fabricated in "29. Novembra" Street. On Seselj’s side, beyond a very skillful use of the media (when he is allowed access), there is potential for a greater union of the Socialists and JUL. According to some questionnaires, segments of SPS, in the event of a union between SPS and JUL, promise to join the Radicals camp as a sign of protest. An unconvincing SPS candidate and an insufficiently thought-out selection within the coalition Zajedno could guarantee Seselj a position in the second round.

The President of the Democratic Center, Dr. Dragoljub Micunovic, also announced his intentions to run as presidential candidate. As a man of compromise, Dr. Micunovic numbers among those politicians who receive the least number of negative points in all opinion polls. His handicap is that he lacks the support of a strong party or coalition, without which success in the elections is impossible. Knowing this, DC announced several days ago that their faction "will certainly have their own presidential candidate", which does not necessarily imply that candidate will be Dr. Micunovic.

Coalition Zajedno had already reached an understanding that their presidential candidate will be appointed by SPO. According to a fairly widespread opinion, this Coalition has good reason to hope for a positive outcome as long as the conditions of a strong candidate and the support of the middle factions are fulfilled. Beneath the seeming unity within this Coalition, questions persists regarding whether that strong candidate with the ability to win is the SPO leader Vuk Draskovic. For the members of his faction candidature is not open to question. However, other members of the Coalition do not share that view, considering Draskovic’s candidature a poor choice. His merits in the "opposition’s cause" are certainly immeasurable, and he has to a certain extent become a symbol of opposition to the present regime. At the same time, Draskovic is the most controversial politician on the national political scene, which has had to leave its mark. As a rule, he is at the top of the list of politicians who have a firm grip on public opinion and who are viewed by voters in the most positive, as well as negative light.

In the business of pre-election maneuvering, the apparent frontrunners from the business world are Milan Panic and Bogoljub Karic. In the political back rooms of Belgrade it has been heard recently that Panic and Karic have supposedly made a "gentlemen’s agreement" in which both will participate in the pre-elections campaign, following which, at the start of the finish, the one with the lesser chances will pull out. Such an agreement, verbal or otherwise, has never been reached and appears more as the product of the imagination of people who are part of both camps. What Panic and Karic do share so far is the search for a base, the unwillingness to declare a final decision, and confrontations with the preliminary counterattacks by the regime that suggest only a small part of what is yet to come if they do join the presidential campaign.

Announced several days ago at a press conference, Panic’s intention is to declare his candidature in the eventual case that the "entire opposition" might stand up in his support. Observers claim that this means the support of the Coalition Zajedno and Kostunica’s DSS. Beside sufficient campaign funds, Panic also has enough persistence to succeed; he has enough ideas on how to get the country back on its feet, and enough time to think out an effective campaign. His partial advantage is that he comes from a milieu in which only success is acknowledged, and in which a failure is only considered in the light of available options for succeeding. There are rumors in Belgrade that Panic recently met with Milosevic who strong-armed the former Federal Premier, with the result that the latter has only been spurred on and has become more determined to try his luck again.

The anti-Panic currents are considerable. Because of the personal ambitions of the leader of the Coalition, as well as past proven failure at cooperation, Panic will not easily come by the support of the Coalition Zajedno and Kostunica. Beside the Socialists and Seselj’s Radicals, he will have to deal with the entire regime media which are bracing for heavy mud slinging. A part of the anti-Panic campaign, as a preventive measure, had already begun before he even decided to declare candidature.

The position of Bogoljub Karic is seemingly more complex than that of Panic. Karic is a "novice" in this business in which he is voicing political ambitions for the first time. From what is reaching the public these days, it appears that he has abandoned the support of the Coalition Zajedno from the start, choosing to seek a base elsewhere. He is having talks with Nebojsa Covic who these days is supposed to promote a new social democratic faction. Karic is also having talks with Micunovic from DC and all those who are around the middle, and wish to offer him support. Bogoljub Karic also has enough funds for a long and convincing campaign. He has the image of a successful business man who made his first million some time ago. In contrast to Panic, he has his own media and also very good relations with nearly all opposition leaders. At the mention of Karic’s name, even Vojislav Seselj avoids strong words. The attack on BK Television caused a veritable media race among all "protectors of democracy" who wished to show that the owner of this station can count on their support.

Karic’s campaign team is certainly aware of land mines which lay strewn in the path of this businessman, should he decide to join the presidential race. There will be criticism for many who hurried to disassociate themselves from BK Television, just as there will be for Karic’s lengthy association with Milosevic. Some claim that this is merely another one of Milosevic’s stunts, and that Bogoljub Karic continues to be in Milosevic’s "sphere of gravitation". That the owner of BK Television is confronting many business difficulties is not sufficient evidence to such people that the committees in Tolstoj Street are working for very different interests. Information from SPS suggests that there are preparations for a very brutal campaign against Karic happening there. In their echoes and reactions there is mention of his questionably-acquired wealth, that he is a newfangled millionaire who is trying to buy everybody and everything, even the sympathies of the incorruptible Serbian people are mentioned.

The campaign has begun, even though everyone is waiting for Milosevic to officially begin it. Until that time there will be much consenting and denying, political buying and haggling, and it is not outside the realm of possibility that the final list of presidential hopefuls might include names that are not even under consideration at the present. As possible candidates, there is mention of Zoran Djinjdjic, Vojislav Kostunica, Nebojsa Covic, among others.