From Katanga to Europe

Not only is the economic status of Belgrade in Brussels almost equal to that which could be obtained by some country which popped up out of nowhere, but between the EU and SRY not even full diplomatic relations exist since the head of the Europe Commission's Mission in Belgrade is not the ambassador, but the charge d'affaires.

In keeping with the President of Serbia Slobodan Milosevic's principle "better trade than aid" proclaimed in Dayton, the Yugoslav party is not overly interested in diplomatic relations. It considers the economic issues as incomparably more important, that is, access to the market of European Union members under more favorable conditions. After the suspension of the UN's Security Council's sanctions, Belgrade has tried to resolve the matter several times by simply resuming the old agreement on cooperation between the EU and SRY, with the well known explanation that SRY is the successor of SFRY. However, since Brussels persistently (or, as Belgrade would put it "stubbornly") insists on the attitude that it is about the new situation and the new country, the Yugoslav representatives have withdrawn, at least for the time being. They are pressing the negotiations for obtaining autonomous trade preferentials (ATP). But, as one connoisseur of the circumstances in Brussels says, "the European Union is like a super tanker: it takes a long time to redirect it, so it's a great problem if you're on its way."

What does the granting of the autonomous trade preferentials bring Yugoslavia? Since we are the country which operates more or less arbitrary and at random, there is no answer to this question, people that in SRY professionally deal with the relations with the European Union tell Vreme weekly. PhD Vojislav Stankovic from the Institute for Foreign Trade believes that the introduction of ATPs for the Yugoslav products will bring down the export expenses from 4% to 7.5% on the average. This means, if we take the example of the last year's exports to Germany and Italy ($327 million according to the CES Makon), the savings would be between $12 to $24.5 million.

In November of last year, SRY was one step away from being granted autonomous trade preferentials by the European Union's Council of Ministers, and if it hadn't been for the post-election scandal, local exporters would already be enjoying themselves. At that time, the export preferentials were supposed to be the reward for the agreement signed between SRY and Germany on the return of the Albanians to Kosovo (within the EU, German Minister for Foreign Affairs Klaus Kinkel insisted on the connection between the preferentials and the return of the Albanians from Germany to Kosovo). Everything was prepared, the approval just needed the seal of the Council of Ministers. The theft of the votes switched the course of the EU, and the decision on granting the ATPs has been postponed.

In the meantime, the requests from the Gonzales' report about the return of the election victory in the big cities to the opposition and the freedom of the press have become the new conditions for granting the export preferentials. However, although they mainly haven't been fulfilled up to now, the issue of preferentials has become significant again. It is expected that the EU's Council of Ministers will finally approve the autonomous export relieves for SRY during its session on April 29 in Luxembourg.

Although it is not highly probable that there will be new delays except in case of some drastic move from the part of Yugoslavia, the consensus hasn't been reached yet. Carl Bildt, the high representative of the international community for Bosnia-Herzegovina, is currently opposed to the approval of the ATPs. Shortly before the session of the Council of Ministers on March 24, he had already informed the chiefs of diplomacy of the "fifteen" about it, explaining that he considers the Belgrade-Pale alliance the most serious violation of the Dayton Agreement.

The second and not the least naíve threat for the first step of the European opening towards SRY has been announced from Washington. It is expected that the State Department will "politely but firmly" inform the ambassadors of the countries members of the EU that the approval of the autonomous trade preferentials in the current moment would not please Washington. In the diplomatic circles of the "fifteen" in Belgrade, such a move is interpreted as "aggressive" because the preferentials are considered exclusively the matter of the European Union members. The Americans will say to all this that they "wish for a coordinated policy towards Belgrade".

There's the belief, however, that Washington will not use all of its available means to block the approval of export relieves to Yugoslavia, except in the case of emergency (such as a the military intervention in Montenegro, for example). Formally, the Americans have justification for something like that in the rules of the World Trade Organization, although it would then raise the question why didn't they apply the same possibilities when the EU approved the ATPs to Croatia and Bosnia-Herzegovina.

If the events take the expected course in Luxembourg, then certainly the Montenegrins will loosen up a little bit their attempts to build independent relations with the European Union. It is unlikely that the EU can meet their requests, not only because it builds its bilateral relations with independent states, but also because many of the reproaches refer both to Serbia and Montenegro.

The granting of the export relieves to SRY will mean only the insertion of its name into the existing regulations (no. 70/97) from December 20, 1996, by which the preferentials were approved for all former Yugoslav republics (despite the special contract, Slovenia uses the advantages of those regulations for its export of wine). Each country will have its own quota (allowed quantity to export) for textile and beef, and all other advantages will be used in the manner "first come, first served". However, the European Union requires from the former Yugoslav republics to grant unilateral trade preferentials after the EU approves their access to its market under the more favorable conditions.

The "green light" from Luxembourg on April 29, as it is announced, should be understood only as a test of the real intentions of Belgrade to initiate the process of democratization in the country: the autonomous trade preferentials are granted only until the end of this year and are not to be automatically renewed. They are only the first step towards the normalization of the relations (also even of those of "better trade than aid") between Brussels and Belgrade. There is still a long road ahead towards the contracts on cooperation of the kind the former SFRY had.