War Against Bosnia

At the time of writing (April 10, late afternoon), the situation in B&H is as follows: the asylum in Domanovici, the biggest in Herzegovina, has been left without food, drugs and staff for days; General Sead Fetahagic of the Second Army District (Sarajevo) politely conveyed the SDS' ultimatum that the city will be shelled if the people caught shooting from the "Holiday Inn" are not released; Hanka Paldum, a folk singer, implored in front of YUTEL TV cameras that shooting at her Serbian neighbours stop; on Friday in Mostar civilians are being shot at and there are a few wounded children (a 13 and a 4 year old); the Zenica steel mill is operating at its minimum maintenance level; the Mostar aluminum plant is facing a catastrophe: if the technological process is not discontinued properly, which demands several weeks, there is a danger of explosion that would destroy the Neretva valley and half of the Adriatic coast.

The fate of B&H can be understood only by means of a many faceted approach: political, military, anthropological, religious and economic.

The Republic of Bosnia and Herzegovina, which ceased to be "socialist" from Thursday (too late, maybe), has no place on the political map of the Balkans drawn in Belgrade and Zagreb. Mr. Tudjman has been mentioning "the Croatian flag on Mt. Romania" for quite a while, Mr. Paraga dreams of "a frontier on the Drina river and in Zemun (a Belgrade suburb)", Mr. Karadzic has been slowly building his state as an integral part of the future state of "all the Serbs of the world", to eventually proclaim it last week; the B&H citizens were not asked for their opinion; the outcome of the first multiparty (i.e. multinational) elections divided them into Serbs, Croats, Moslems and "others". The fact that the division doesn't follow the history and real life of B&H doesn't bother anyone - except the people.

With the advent of national madness in the "decadent" Yugoslavia, Bosnia and Herzegovina became a superfluous republic. Mr. Izetbegovic's SDA has thus been reduced to a religion flavored party - like it or not. This has opened up the possibility of further political abuse: by carefully evading the recognition of Moslems as a nation, Serbian ideologists began to jabber about "Islamic fundamentalism" as a logical part of the international conspiracy against the Serbs.

From a practical and political stand-point, the question is what kind of agreement Milosevic and Tudjman reached in Karadjordjevo, claim our correspondents from Sarajevo. If they agreed to split B&H between themselves, then someone has been cheated: the Croatian population of Bosnia and especially Herzegovina is obviously siding with Izetbegovic, by recognizing his government and its new Territorial Defense structure. Up to now, the Croats from Western Herzegovina have carefully selected military targets around Mostar, although they've hit a Serbian village as well. In the Livno, Kupres and Tomislavgrad regions, however, Croats are fighting fiercely to establish a physical connection between Western Herzegovina and the Croatian enclaves in central Bosnia (Bugojno, Travnik).

The Serbian side, however, is directly destroying the very tissue of the Republic of B&H, in accordance with Milosevic's strategy previously implemented in Croatia. Dr. Karadzic has claimed for days that outside the Serbian Republic of B&H "he recognizes no authority", leaving no hope for the survival of the present legally elected government.

After the incidents from April 5-9 and the 30 dead citizens of Sarajevo, of all nationalities, both sexes and all ages, Mr. Karadzic will dare not show his face in the city streets. He is now playing double or quits (for he knows that Sarajevo is lost to the SDS forever), vindictively shelling the Hum TV transmitter, the "Oslobodjenje" building and everything that moves. This was to be expected: Karadzic has for days been accusing TV Sarajevo of "war-mongering", even though the following message has been displayed for hours on the screens: "Peoples of B&H, unite against the war. Stop shooting!". In an attempt not to offend anyone, Sarajevo TV has censored reliable information, avoiding naming the aggressor located in the neighboring hills, although everybody knew that these were SDS men; they are now beginning to feel the consequences.

Nobody has learned a single lesson from the war in Croatia, Karadzic least of all, although he had before him the example of Milan Babic. He has repeated every single mistake Babic made, only this time in a much more dangerous setting: where Babic had only Croats against him, Karadzic has Croats and Moslems; where Babic was dealing with a rather divided population, Karadzic is trying to estrange a much more compact population; where the Army openly backed Babic, Karadzic still has had no adequate support and his hope that Croatia will be repeated throughout B&H was unfulfilled.

The RAM Plan, which has been diligently implemented for more than a year, consisted of organizing, arming and supplying a parallel power structure amongst the Serbs in B&H, aiming at the unification of the entire "Serbianhood". The assessment SDS made last summer was clear: "Conflicts are inevitable, for this is a historic opportunity to fulfil the century long dream of a common state for all Serbs". It was a splendid idea, but had a single flaw - it wasn't feasible. Thank to Mr. Kertes' (the Socialist Party of Serbia MP), Serbs in B&H have been fully armed, with the consent and support of JNA, and the Serbian and Montenegrin governments. They have been provided with food and fuel supplies, and thus given a chance for creating a black market after the Serbian Government imposed an economic blockade on B&H.

Sniper shots in Sarajevo marked the absolute moral defeat of the SDS and Mr. Karadzic. His vague stories about the "green berets" didn't convince anyone, since further attacks on Sarajevo clearly showed who is shooting and why. Thus Mr. Karadzic has once and for all lost the support of the Sarajevo Serbs. They are on guard in front of their houses, along with their Croatian and Moslem neighbors, mostly unarmed.

Snipers are the biggest threat in Sarajevo and Mostar. The strategy is clear: to create anarchy. Mostar is especially vulnerable for several reasons: the city has become a hostage between two paramilitary formations - from Eastern and Western Herzegovina -and JNA, which is threatening to retaliate by hitting civilian targets every time it loses its temper. Mostar has no choice: a year ago, the Territorial Defense weapons were confiscated and transported to Kalinovik; the police dares not show its face outside the Security Center, and the people are frozen in fear.

As in the previous - Croatian - case, the SDS based its strategy on the (more or less) justified hypothesis that the JNA is eager to kill all those who are not Serbs, for Karadzic's sake. Another similarity between Karadzic and Babic becomes evident here: both have passed through a phase in which they despised the JNA as a "traitor army". Mr. Babic was doing that last spring, and Mr. Karadzic is doing it now. The JNA served Mr. Babic well. Mr. Karadzic will have to wait for a while. The merits for that waiting also go to Alija Izetbegovic: he has continuously tried to make the JNA adopt a straightforward policy - whether it will protect the population from the aggressor or not; whether or not it will disarm the paramilitary formations and defend the constitutional order, even though it i s not a communist one.

Tudjman and Milosevic are tearing B&H to pieces, while the Army stands by and watches, evading any kind of engagement.

Bosnia and Herzegovina are left alone with their own resources. The republic was recognized by many countries, and even by the USA (which by doing so is making a grand entrance into the chaos of the Yugoslav crisis). Practically speaking, it means nothing. The republic is confined to its own resources, while different countries extend their hypocritical sympathy. The Army is slowly giving in to inertia and opening the final chapter of its own downfall: it is gradually leaving Mostar, by bombing its own armament factories in Citluk. B&H is slowly turning into the final act of the JNA drama. The disintegration of industrial plants in Vitez (explosives), Travnik(tanks and guns), Sarajevo (motors and transmission), Konjic and Gorazde (ammunition), Tuzla (chemicals), etc. is just a question of time. The crumbling of JNA in B&H could turn out to be a very ugly and bloody one.

What is Bosnia left with? A dispersed structure of reserve police forces, once the strongest in Yugoslavia; a reorganized Territorial Defense wearing new insignia (the B&H coat of arms), supposed to bring all armed groups under a single command by April 15. It also has at its disposal an unspecified quantity of weaponry, some imported through the port of Ploce and distributed throughout Eastern Bosnia thanks to Alija Delimustafic, some saved from the Army's "exempting" of Territorial Defense armament, following the elections which the communists did not win, some from the stocks of the ex-League of Communists of B&H (around 100,000 rifles).

The B&H Ministry of the Interior at present represents the only organized force in the republic. It is not clear though who is telling the truth: the Interior Ministry or the B&H Serbs Ministry of Interior, for both claim that 90% of Serbian policemen are with them. Some police officials - by pointing at the frightening increase of robberies and crime in such circumstances - are imploring, above all, for the maintenance of the professional and ethical standards of the trade.

A woman from Bistrik, a suburb of Sarajevo says: " What we have built in the course of our entire lives, they have destroyed in a single night". A convict has probably given the best description of the shape of things in Sarajevo and the Republic: "I went home for Bairam. When I managed to return to jail on time and saw how well we Serbs, Moslems and Croats are getting along, I figured out that we were better off in jail that those outside. I even thought of bringing my wife and kids here with me, to jail".

As the last lines of this article are being written, a statement by Alija Izetbegovic is just coming in: "It is highly unlikely that this government will be able to save both Bosnia and Herzegovina, but the people can do it".