Plunging Into Olympism

Whenever there’s talk of the ruling party political analysts here lean towards two schools of thought. The first (the minority) say the Socialists are still reeling from last winter’s defeat and add that their current offensive is a pretense. Under that logic even last week’s election of Slobodan Milosevic to the post of FRY president is just more proof that a failed project is getting more window dressing.

The second (the majority) school of thought says that the Socialists have gotten up after being knocked down, have gotten far in their efforts to consolidate and recover, have got their personnel merry go round spinning and have destabilized their political opponents once again. Advocates of that theory don’t see Milosevic’s election as an expression of helplessness by the regime but the start of the transfer of real power to federal level regardless of all constitutional limitations. They believe that Milosevic, who has been ruling as Caesar for a long time, won’t let himself down. But unlike Caesar who said that Rome is not where Rome is but where I am, his slogan is power isn’t where the constitution says it is but where I am.

In regard to the opposition, there is no dilemma. On the verge of the fifth election battle many things recall the first in December 1990. The authorities are on one side controlling virtually all of society and are constantly adapting election rules to suit themselves. On the other side is the fragmented opposition going through its familiar stage of election irrationality including explosions of party leaders’ egos and waste of precious time.

Our experience so far says that that opposition, after months of moaning, always agrees to play the game with marked cards under the rules set by the authorities.

This year the election casino seems to be opening earlier than usual. Milosevic’s transfer to a federal post has practically set the date for presidential elections which have to be held in September. Most probably that is the month when parliamentary elections will be held (September 28 has been mentioned unofficially) which leads to the conclusion that campaigning time will be shorter than ever. That might suit most opposition parties considering the state of their treasuries.

Opposition problems stem from the fact that the short campaigning time could become even shorter and they would end up short again.

Most opposition parties claim they won’t stand in the elections under the conditions the Socialists are offering (29 instead of the current nine electoral districts) and are preparing for a fierce anti-election campaign.

Djindjic’s Democrats said even more: they want to prevent the elections at any cost with mass protests, demonstrations and blockades of ballot stations. The Socialists say they’ve heard that story before. They’re basing their strategy on their conviction that the opposition is incapable of reaching agreement on anything or respecting it later even if they do.

The Socialists believe that the boycott-at-any-cost threats will be broken by at least one of the bigger opposition parties (DS or SPO) who would join Seselj’s Radicals. In that case they would finish a big job: the elections would be recognized as regular and legitimate, the opposition would be completely broken up and campaigning time would be reduced to just 10 days. By then the anti-election campaign would provide significant results: a large number of potential voters would be convinced they should abstain or would be confused by the change in stands and that is always good for the regime.

The Socialists don’t seem to fear threats of mass protests and believe the disappointment of the population with what the Zajedno coalition has done so far is too great for masses of people to turn out for protests.

Only the Radicals have agreed to stand in the elections so far. Some believe that will be enough for the Socialists to say enough parties and independent candidates have turned out. Seselj has agreed to 29 districts believing that recent polls which show his ratings are high are correct. The current situation suits the Radicals: Seselj is making the best use of every appearance on state TV. At the same time, he’s using the fact that the regime has to rely on him to stay in power. The Radicals are being rational as usual.

All the other more important opposition members are sticking to the boycott story. DS deputy leader Slobodan Vuksanovic told BK TV recently that seven years of unfair election conditions and fraud are enough. He said the election boycott would help people get out from under the Socialists and get all the right rules and conditions for the first real elections.

In regard to the elections, the SPO hasn’t gone as far as the DS and won’t blockade polling stations but that party has officially lent support to the boycott. SPO political council chairman Milan Bozic told BK TV that conditions are right for a boycott. He even added that the boycott has started but didn’t exclude the possibility of some kind of campaign starting soon. Bozic explained that the leftist coalition SPS-JUL-ND turned its 45% of votes won in 29 districts at last year’s federal elections into 60% of parliament seats.

DSS spokesman Milorad Jovanovic told VREME that his party won’t compromise on the number of electoral districts. "In recent talks with the Serbian government our leader Vojislav Kostunica told Milorad Vucelic clearly that we won’t stand in the elections if his proposal for 29 districts is adopted. Everything else is negotiable," he said. Jovanovic didn’t exclude the possibility of the Socialists changing the rules of the game at the last moment to meet opposition demands. He added that even 20 days isn’t a short time to campaign since everyone is in a permanent campaign since last winter.

Unlike the DSS, Vesna Pesic’s GSS believes that it’s too late for elections in September. Party spokesman Goran Svilanovic told VREME that it’s clear that election can’t be held on normal terms in September. Even if the Socialists accept opposition demands now and keep the nine district election system in place. "The two months left to the elections is too short a time to make any serious changes. It’s impossible to change the media especially as long as Radmila Milentijevic travels through Serbia shutting down local media. All the elections to date have shown that control of results is not good and that has to change. Don’t forget that the opposition wanted all of Serbia to be one electoral district and that the nine existing districts are the result of a compromise. The only solution is to start everything all over."

the fact that after seven years of multi-party politics in Serbia there is still talk of the need to establish equal election conditions is perhaps the best illustration of the failure of the opposition’s fight to date. This time it seems that the Socialists are concentrating on making use of every advantage while the opposition talks of a boycott but they’re also waiting to see who will be the first to wade into pure olympism and say that the most important thing is to take part not who wins the Serbian elections. Sociologist Vladimir Cvetkovic predicted a new fall into olympism for the opposition and said that fair election rules can be secured only if opposition leaders win Seselj’s support, that is if they offer him more than the SPS and JUL are offering. "That means just election rules can be won in an ethically dubious way; with the support or in an alliance between democrats and the extreme right," Cvetkovic told Nasa Borba recently.