Here We Go Again

The Socialists used the power of their majority in the Serbian parliament and threw DS MPs out of a session to demonstrate their understanding of reaching a consensus on the rules of the game. They adopted a law increasing the number of electoral districts which the opposition tried to prevent by obstructing parliament. Serbian President Slobodan Milosevic asked parliament to look into whether the law had been broken, and the voting machine immediately responded that it had adhered to the law. His presidential mandate ended without making clear whether the law was declared valid by a regular president or whether the problem was swept under the carpet by acting president Dragan Tomic who said the whole thing is clean.

A simulation drawn up by the VREME documentation center shows that the increase in the number of electoral districts will secure an SPS victory with a majority of 131 seats in parliament (following calculations drawn up for the 1993 elections). The DSS would be left out of parliament, and the SPO, SRS and DS would hold onto approximately the same number of seats they now have.

Under those circumstances, the dissatisfied will try to upset things. They had no response to the arrogance of the majority and saw no way to win fair election conditions, so 10 opposition parties said they will boycott the elections. They called the SPO to join their boycott, but officials from the party responded saying that they have always felt they should not stand in elections until the rules are agreed at a round table. The usual mood of mistrust was created.

There were statements that an anti-election campaign would be launched, an anti-election strategy drawn up, and two commissions formed. This is a reliable sign that nothing will happen.

Some of the opposition suggested that municipalities where the opposition holds the majority should not turn in electoral rolls. This is a very risky step since it includes a violation of the election law in a way that could get people sent to jail. Secondly, the regime is just waiting for something like that to happen so it can impose its management in the municipalities held by the Zajedno coalition.

So can the announced boycott scare the regime?

The abstinence rate in Serbia (not including Kosovo’s ethnic Albanians) is between 25% and 30% of the electorate; the overall turnout of the parties that are threatening the boycott stands at 15%-20% of the electorate, which means no more than 1.5 million voters. Since the SPS-JUL-ND coalition, the SRS, Vojvodina coalition and some other parties said they will stand in the elections (which means 2.7 million voters will certainly turn out), the boycott has become an empty threat. Boycott strategists think they can get new elections quickly, but the weakness of that idea is that the regime can wait for those elections with a new Serbian president who could be unchangeable.

Most likely, the regime will go ahead with the elections despite the boycott, in an effort to marginalia the parties that relied on the people staging last winter's three-month protest. Due Milosevic’s transfer to the federal level, the presidential elections have to be held within two months, which also leaves little room for the boycott. Some new party could come out of the vacuum, just as Seselj appeared suddenly in 1992.

It’s not quite clear how pro-democracy voters will react to a call by the people who took power on their wave of popular unrest and then childishly quarreled. Some polls show that opposition party ratings are growing, which is a suspicious sign considering the breakup of the Zajedno coalition which will be punished.

Boycott advocates are counting on international support, invoking the fact that the ruling party gave up on fulfilling the recommendations in the Gonzales report. The question now is whether Zajedno, which broke up before winning its protest demands, will be viewed as a credible and reliable partner.

The boycott could be more damaging than good. The authorities could take over two regime groups again, and the eternal contenders who spent the past seven years in futile attempts could join the Serbian Liberal Party which has boycotted all the elections so far. A crisis could ensue in which Serbia would be divided into the irresponsible regime and the disorganized population.

The elections won’t serve to pacify political tensions. The regime, with its uncrowned ruling couple and corrupt associates, will seem unchangeable because it has no alternative. That’s where the new challenge lies. The situation in which social and state problems aren’t solved by political means is very risky and tends to erupt. On the other hand, the population will no longer stand to be obstructed by incompetent opposition leaders and, amid the escalating crisis, will find someone who is prepared to reasonably and responsibly accept state affairs.