Scenario of War

There are only a few minor details missing for the relations between Serbia and Montenegro to become identical to the relations between Serbia and Slovenia in 1991.

In his effort to adapt Yugoslavia to his taste, Slobodan Milosevic tried to discipline Slovenia in a number of ways; from the constitution, through a media campaign against Slovenian officials and a boycott of Slovenian goods.

He’s insisting on changes to the constitution now, the media campaign is merciless and he’s started a boycott of Montenegrin goods and companies. His special troops have gone south and the media specialists who are moaning have seen their job made easier by the current Montenegrin President, Momir Bulatovic. He brought in a Serbian state TV team to go after Prime Minister Milo Djukanovic. There isn’t a single state institution in the republic he hasn’t gotten into an argument with or whose officials he hasn’t accused of crimes. His stories and the stories told by his close associates are being reported in different versions which Tanjug then unites into a concentrated version for broadcasts.

Certainly SPS official Dusan Matkovic didn’t decide on his own to use more expensive transport routes to bring ore to his Sartid steelworks and leave the port of Bar without a job. He signed a contract with the steelworks in Zenica to block the iron plant in Niksic. Serbia is importing iron from the RS although it isn’t produced there and paying just one percent customs duties. This is said to be a lucrative deal with iron being imported into Serbia, exported to the RS and then brought back into Serbia. The contingents are 10 to 100 times what the import permits say and the Niksic ironworks is piling up its stocks. The Niksic plant has come under fire from the Supreme Defense Council which banned the import of cheap iron from Albania.

On the other side, the Obod Cetinje household appliance factory can’t get import permits for tin which isn’t produced in Yugoslavia. Federal customs chief Mihalj Kertes blocked the port of Zelenika in an effort to cut the transit of cigarettes through Montenegro while Bulatovic and his allies (including the federal defense minister) have made sure the FRY navy patrols the entrance into Boka Kotorska bay.

Montenegrin goods have a harder time getting across the border with Serbia than any other border. That includes fuel which is cheaper in Montenegro even though Serbia is having a hard time meeting demand. A few days ago, even trucks carrying fruit were turned back.

Momir Bulatovic on the inside and Milosevic on the outside are trying to bring Montenegro to its knees and suit it to the FRY president’s taste.

Finally, there are threats and a mood is being created as if something could happen at any moment. Optimists say everything will be resolved at the presidential elections which Djukanovic is expected to win.