Squeaking Bulldozer

When, at the beginning of the month, it was announced that the former Special Envoy Richard Holbrook would visit Yugoslavia, it was expected that we would witness a significant step in the implementation of the Dayton Agreement. All the more so since Holbrook, whose negotiation tactics have frequently been likened to the excavations of a bulldozer, had gained the reputation during the preparations for Dayton and later as the only many who can force the pigheaded Balkan leaders, Milosevic especially, to tow the line of Pax Americana. Prior to the visit, speculations were many that Holbrook was coming after someone, supposedly Karadzic, but Krajisnik was also mentioned. However, after a four day tour, American functionaries unwillingly admitted that this time Holbrook’s mission went no further than, as they said, "diplomatic squeaking" in a considerably weakened Dayton scenario.

Holbrook’s reputation of a miracle worker proved to be the main source of many misunderstandings which marked his stay in Belgrade from August 8 to 10, and raised expectations far beyond realistic possibilities. That reputation cast a shadow over the fact that Richard Holbrook had not dealt with the Balkan crisis for over a year now (even though he had briefly stayed twice in this region during that time), and the fact that during this visit he was not even the official chief of the American delegation. The chief of the three man delegation was Robert Gellbard, Holbrook’s replacement in the position of Special Envoy, the third man being the Aide to the State Secretary of Finance, Mr. Lipton, while Holbrook himself was second, described in the protocol according to his present position of Special Envoy to Cyprus. Despite that, all media attention, along with much of the political attention was directed at Holbrook, while Gellbard and Lipton hardly shone in the limelight.

This threesome accomplished the easier part of their task first in Split, then in Sarajevo, where they forced Tudjman and Izetbegovic to promise that in the future they will get along better. Later in Sarajevo, they blackmailed Izetbegovic, Zupka and Krajisnik into signing an agreement according to which they will share foreign embassies and consulates (Serbs get Washington, Muslims get New York, while Croats get Tokyo). However, despite every possible pressure, they did not manage to force the three-headed Sarajevo leadership into agreeing over the design of their new monetary unit, which is why Bosnia remains without some twenty million dollars in loans which had already been approved.

The next stage in Holbrook’s visit was Banja Luka, where the three envoys met with Biljana Plavsic. Judging by the very neutral statements after the meeting, and by President Plavsic’s sour faced expression, it appears that support for Plavsic’s fight against the Pale Government and Parliament was considerably cooler than Plavsic expected. Holbrook elaborated somewhat on the absence of a stronger stand by stating that Krajisnik, as a member of Parliament of Bosnia and Herzegovina, "must be respected regardless of who he is". Anyway, everyone knew that the main work regarding Republica Srpska was not to be completed in Pale or in Banja Luka, but rather in Belgrade, which is why expectations were high for the visit with Milosevic.

In fact, diplomatic sources tell VREME that Holbrook’s services were elicited by Robert Gellbard, who was getting tired of Milosevic’s persistent weaseling out of implementing some part of the Dayton Agreement by calling on personal understandings he had had with Holbrook. This time they both appeared before the new President of SRY so as to go over the main points in the Dayton Agreement, not leaving Milosevic much space to maneuver. The main topic of discussion, and the one which caused Momcilo Krajisnik (who met with Holbrook the day before) suddenly to arrive in Belgrade, was the placement of the Special Brigade of the Republica Srpska MUP under SFOR observation. This move, which was prepared a lot earlier, could have far reaching consequences, given that Republica Srpska SB MUP is, at this moment, the strongest, best trained and most motivated part of the Bosnian Serb armed forces. It will be remembered that the force in question consists of six thousand battle-tested commandos under the direct authority of the Pale chiefs, whose responsibility it is to maintain government integrity, to guard Republica Srpska officials wanted publicly or secretly by the Hague, and who, according to some sources, are responsible for a series of "spontaneous" attacks on members of SFOR in August of this year. Stripped of a greater part of its otherwise impressive arsenal (which among other things includes artillery and anti-aircraft weapons), and then subjected to the same restrictions as the Republica Srpska Army, the Special Brigade will no longer represent a serious factor in the Bosnian equation, which in the near future could help SFOR and Plavsic also.

The question of delivering Karadzic was, of course, top on the list of discussion topics, even though it seems that no progress was made on that point. After talks with Milosevic and Krajisnik, Holbrook stated that he had been promised that Karadzic will no longer appear in public, even though that offer was small consolation to both him and Gellbard. The problem is that both Milosevic and Krajisnik promised the same thing to the same man during an earlier visit (July 16, 1997), except that the good doctor from Pale did not deliver on this promise of silence, and had talked to foreign journalists at least two times (to the "Trentish Courier", and the "Zeideutche Zeitung"). In any case, even if he wanted, Karadzic could hardly stay behind the scenes, if only for the fact that others — both friends and enemies — frequently bring him into their discussions. Proving this hypothesis, only a day after Holbrook’s visit, "Vecernje Novosti" published an exclusive interview with Karadzic from his home, made by the German journalist Daihmman, who is a specialist for spreading the truth about Serbs.

Because of Holbrook’s and Gellbrad’s failure in forcing Karadzic’s elimination through diplomatic channels, this could mean that other methods will be applied. "I was brutally clear in connection with what could happen", stated Holbrook for Washington Post, without getting into details, one day after talking to Milosevic. However, according to American military sources, what is being planned is a combined special forces operation (including military units Delta, Seals and Rangers) with the support of the air force and the application of "disproportional counterattacks" against any resistance that Karadzic’s bodyguards might offer. That which should make Karadzic worried is the fact that these units are combat ready, along with the fact that Americans are in a hurry: it has been concluded that local elections in Bosnia, set for September 21, will not go that smoothly if the former President of Republica Srpska witnesses them alive and free.

A separate story is represented by the incidental and nearly destructive effects which Holbrook’s visit had on the Serbian opposition, and especially on that part of it which has decided to boycott the coming parliamentary and presidential elections. The first gaff happened during Holbrook’s radio interview with B92 when the American Special Envoy first sounded surprised ("What boycott?...Which party?...When were they announced?"), only to later state quite angrily that "an elections boycott would be stupid" and that elections will certainly be held. Two days later, at a press conference held in Belgrade’s Hyatt, the better informed Gellbard tried to "patch things up" by mentioning every party’s individual right to decide whether it is going to or not going to participate in elections. The State Department indirectly confirmed the fact that Holbrook’s gaff is not part of official American policy, when two days later it issued a statement in which it emphasized that elections in Serbia under the present conditions will not be democratic and free, just as it "is not for the American Government to advise parties on whether or not to boycott elections".

Another, less spectacular but far more worrying gaff happened later when in an interview with Studio B, answering the question what kind of negotiator Milosevic is, Holbrook stated that the newfangled President of SRY "very skillfully protects the interests of his country". One day later, Holbrook used the more politically correct formulation in answer to the same question when he said, "Milosevic skillfully protects his own interests". But the impression that was left was that the American Special Envoy to Cyprus, consciously or not, sometimes acts in accordance with Minister Radmila Milentijevic’s pledges on the pre-election campaign.

The whole story is perhaps best illustrated by a detail from the press conference in Hyatt, when Holbrook proudly stated that he managed to get "Izetbegovic, Krajisnik and Zubak to come to an official visit to Sarajevo". "Perhaps you meant to say Belgrade?" asked the befuddled journalists. "Yes", answered Holbrook, excusing himself. "I am so tired that I no longer know anything except that I am in some kind of hotel, somewhere in the Balkans".