The Miracle-maker

he season of gauging the will of the people is coming to the country that is officially called "these areas". If they are capable of taking their job in a relaxed manner, the OSCE monitors are in for a lot of fun. However, if some in their ranks happen to be diligent and responsible, they will risk a nervous break-down caused by a feeling of helplessness when dealing with the confusion that is bound to be greater this time than it ever was.

Overall, that will look like trying to measure something with an unidentifiable beginning or ending; nor is it clear whether that something should be measured lengthwise or widthwise; what is to be added and what subtracted, to what and from what. At the same time, it is impossible to establish whether the measuring instruments are working or not, whilst the object itself defies measuring in general.

Three electoral procedures will take place on three different territories, in Serbia, Montenegro and Republika Srspka. The area is both larger and smaller than the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, since Kosovo does not count, or rather, it counts manifold. In some places elections will take place according to schedule, in other places voting will take place ahead of time, and it is still disputable what kind of elections are to be held for the Serbian Parliament. The time of their holding coincides accidentally or inevitably, for some deeper reasons, which are also difficult to fathom.

In principle, the elections in the three units are not related. Yet, the fate of Slobodan Milosevic, which will be the major electoral theme everywhere, even though none of the votes concerns him directly, links all of them. Naturally, it has yet to be seen who will cast votes, who the candidates will be, and what kind of elections will be held in these places. At the moment, for example, it is impossible to tell whether local, parliamentary and presidential elections will be simultaneously held in Republika Srpska, or only a combination of these. At the same time, one ought not rule out the possibility that a part of Republika Srpska might boycott the elections, or that it's western part of Brcko might vote only for the parliament and it's eastern part for the new President.

When it comes to Montenegro, it is uncertain whether Momir Bulatovic will be a presidential candidate, and, if he is, which party he will represent. More precisely, it is uncertain whether Milosevic will be able to impose him forcefully as a candidate of the DPS which has already fielded the candidacy of Milo Djukanovic. This is legally impossible. However, the Federal Constitutional Court has a different opinion on the issue, even though it is not entitled to hold any opinions about it. It is one of those challenges that Milosevic the Magician could always take special pleasure in: to achieve a legally impossible feat. To show everyone that the law cannot touch him. He can jump or fly over it, squeeze himself under it, find a loophole; he makes himself invisible, uncatchable; he plays games and pretends that he is quite marginal, even subdued by the letter of the law. And then he suddenly slips away and sneers at it.

The situation is somewhat more complex in Republika Srpska. However, even there, Milosevic enjoys the sympathies of those who do not feel at ease about legality. It is clear that President Biljana Plavsic had the right to dissolve the parliament and call the elections. But, Pale did not like the idea. Then both sides stepped outside the sphere of legality. Everybody started grabbing something. The President got hold of some media, whilst Krajisnik and comrades pressed the Constitutional Court which passed a decision against the law.

It is uncertain how elections can solve this case. Why would people who are proved to be prone to violence and lawlessness have any interest in the will of the people? Why would they agree to an honest and free expression of that will? Why would they risk everything they have achieved through painstaking work over the last several years? They have hold of a machine for the production of the will of the people, which is the last thing they can afford to give up. If NATO soldiers were to seize or block this machine, then the Pale side would be left with the possibilities of either boycotting the elections or conceding defeat in advance.

In any case, it is least likely that truly honest elections will be held in the entire territory of Republika Srpska in October. It is almost certain that this entity will split in two parts, in the spot where it is most narrow. It goes without saying that none of the former great leaders of unification entertains the idea of stepping down, giving in, or making a sacrifice for the sake of some higher interest. It is simply incredibly how little these people who trod through blood and crimes care about the reasons and goals they use as their own justification. It use to appear that these things were driven by blind fanaticism. Now it looks like mere self-interest is enough.

It seems that Mrs Plavsic's ratings are improving, at least in the western part of Republika Srpska. At the same time, this is not dependent on Milosevic. This means that his role on the other side of River Drina is becoming less important, which the Americans will certainly not fail to note. Thus, a situation where Milosevic may cease to be the guarantor for Dayton and a factor of stability is in the making. I cannot tell who exactly will benefit from this and who will not, since I have not noticed the world to be gentle thus far either with him or with Serbia. But, this coming autumn he will certainly lose something in Republika Srpska and emerge weaker, whether one were to take a look from within or from outside. He will suffer even greater losses in Montenegro, but least in Serbia itself.

At the same time, his imagined national-territorial whole, which was his war aim, is irrevocably falling apart. Such a deed can hardly outlive its creator. The corrosion is advancing at a fast pace, and the question remains whether it will stop before everything has turned into dust. At the same time, the destiny of the Serbian opposition ought to be listed as another symptom of that disintegration. Not only did the successful coalition break up, but the parties also divided themselves over the issues of participation in the elections.

From the perspective of the OSCE, the sight is not worth a look. Even less a careful analysis. First and foremost, one ought to note that the Albanians are not taking part in the elections. This in itself is sufficiently abnormal, but one might say that everybody has already gotten used to it. Then, one ought to consider who has accepted the elections and what kind of elections in Republika Srpska; whose candidate is Momir Bulatovic; what is happening with the Constitutional Courts, judges and electoral commissions; how to root out the phenomenon called television...Lastly, some special group of experts would have to take a closer look at the parties in Serbia. Whatever the OSCE might think about this, the goal of these and that of any future elections is a change of power in Serbia, and not to have this possibility ruled out in advance ever again. Thus, Vuk Draskovic torpedoed the idea of the elections boycott, whilst, at the same time, Djindjic, Kostunica and others ruined the electoral chances of SPO and of Draskovic himself in advance. There is no doubt that everybody will be a looser, and that the opposition supporters will either take part in the elections or stay at home with an equal lack of enthusiasm.

It is particularly unusual in all this, that all these elections might eventually turn out to be historical as they could significantly change the current balance of power, even some inter-state relations, even though no one is clear as to what is really happening, what choice is really offered, as well as whether one should be making a choice at all. In Montenegro, the choice has never been more important than now, even though at first sight it looks as if it is one and the same thing, whether Djukanovic or Bulatovic turns out to be a winner. Anyone could say that it does not make sense to seek significant differences between Plavsic and Krajsinik, even though, on the other hand, the differences between the two are greater than ever. In Serbia, the dilemma is between the participation in or the boycott of the elections. At the same time, those who created the dilemma are the opposition parties which are former coalition partners. Until recently it did not make any difference, and now it is so distinct. What is one to do? Many people in Serbia have left their homes, but not to vote. They will continue to do so as long as Canada and Australia are out there.