The Sights and Sounds

The sights from Banjaluka have reminded us, with good reason, of some previous ones from Belgrade and Podgorica. A rally and a counter-rally, sticks, eggs, chanting, street-chase, demolition of expensive cars...It appears that these will not be in short supply here in the future either and that it shall be easy for us to maintain a high-ranking amongst the world's producers of similar television attractions. However, a rather sizeable pile of weapons which NATO soldiers had collected from the followers of Momcilo Krajisnik could also be seen in Banjaluka. A similar pile was missing in Belgrade at the time of Milosevic's counter-rally, and in Podgorica, during the visit of Zoran Lilic to Momir Bulatovic. Or, perhaps it was not, but there was no one who would search and disarm the people. The international guardians of order certainly have the right to suspect that there was an intention at instigating unrest and forcefully toppling President of Republika Srpska Biljana Plavsic, even though the weapons alone do no longer represent a serious evidence. In these areas, it is not unusual to use a hand-grenade to crack nuts, and I believe that there are night-clubs where a belt and a shot-gun are the last items that strip-tease dancers strip themselves of.

I am not sure who exactly did the planning and what were their intentions. However, it is certain that everything was ready in Banjaluka so that the strength of the two sides could be measured up which could not pass without mutual losses and victims. A direct conflict between the forces from Pale and those from Banjaluka was prevented by NATO soldiers. They first held back a part of the visiting troops on the outskirts of the town, and then got out and saved Krajisnik himself and his company from the besieged Hotel Bosnia.

This event forces some conclusions both upon direct and distant observers. Those who are in a position to make decisions concerning the role and the nature of employment of NATO soldiers in Bosnia could now start to think whether their mandate includes the task of maintaining peace amongst the Serbs. If it is in their interest to support Biljana Plavsic, are they really obliged to also take care of Krajisnik who regards the international forces as enemies and occupiers? It seems that Karlos Westendorp, General Jacques Klein or some of his superiors were guided by the feeling of order, law and justice, so that they prevented "the execution of the people's will" against the Pale leadership in Banjaluka.

It is also possible that the Americans, who are in charge of the implementation of the Dayton agreement, might have thought that Krajisnik himself will show them more respect if not gratitude after the Banjaluka episode. The Americans tend to turn enemies into their clients, since this, by rule, is cheaper than a direct conflict. But, such reasoning cannot work with these people here. Right after leaving Banjaluka, Krajisnik reiterated his accusations against Biljana Plavsic and foreign forces ("a foreigner's hand"). He thus demonstrated that he will play the game to the very end, just as Milan Babic and Milan Martic, former leaders of Croatian Serbs, did in what used to be Krajina in Croatia.

How does one get to become such a person? Just take a look: by coming to Banjaluka to topple the traitor, the Pale leaders calculated that they were not risking much and that, should something go wrong, those very same NATO occupiers would have to get involved and give them protection. So, these hot patriots are no longer answerable even for themselves, they declared themselves unreliable, whilst it is they who keep pushing the people they represent into a position of complete and utter dependence on the will and mercy of the foreigners.

Biljana Plavsic has certainly not become a liberal democrat overnight, but she has grasped the realities created after the Dayton agreement and strives to protect the Serb interests within the given framework. Her treason can be reduced to her decision to rather accept international aid than to bring the Serb defeat to the end. She well knows that should NATO withdraw at this moment, in other words, should these occupiers now decide to go, the Serb entity would stand no chance of survival. The war would most certainly be renewed, Serbia would not get involved, and Bosnian Serbs are now militarily much weaker. All would end in the same way as it did with Krajina.

If there are people around who are still uncertain why and how Krajina had fallen, they should look around and see what the Serbian leaders and eminent individuals are now saying and doing. Not only do they include Krajisnik, but also Slobodan Milosevic and Vojislav Seselj (the leader of the Serbian Radical Party) and Vojislav Kostunica (the leader of the Democratic Party of Serbia) as well as that group of obscure and eccentric intellectuals from Belgrade who represent the senators of Republika Srpska. All of them know what Biljana Plavsic knows as well. They know that in Europe only Albania is poorer than Republika Srpska, and that the Pale regime certainly does not share the same life-style, and it is not lost on them that this regime needs NATO troops in Bosnia more than anyone else does. During his recent visit to Belgrade, Special U.S. Envoy Robert Gelbard has emphatically lauded the quality of arms and the level of training of the army of the Bosnian Federation.

Just as it was with the Krajina case, only few people wanted to hear and understand this warning. In all this, one could have more understanding for Krajisnik and the people around him since their personal interests are obviously capable of blocking the comprehension of a general tragedy. But, what is it that drives the fans from Belgrade, the participants and the sympathisers of the unfortunate campaign on Banjaluka? It seems that the readiness of Biljana Plavsic to cooperate with the West is for the majority of them so unacceptable, unbearable and shameful that they would reject their own survival if it comes at that price.

Naturally, they are shouldering that risk in the name of some other Serbs, since they themselves live on the safe side of River Drina, which allows them to act cold-bloodedly and courageously. NATO, however, will not pull out so soon, nor will it allow the resumption of the war in Bosnia. Plavsic, on the other hand, may eventually receive some aid. This means that the Serbs there will not only live, but that they will live better, whilst the patriots of Krajisnik's type can only hope that they will manage to salvage at least the eastern part of Republika Srpska from this horrible fate.

I believed that the Serbs will lack the will for asking themselves the essential questions for some time to come, such as the issue of the relationship towards the West. However, it turns out that the latest division actually cuts to the core of this question. The primary reason is that Milosevic is now playing the role of a lawyer who can only prolong the trial that he has already lost and continue to exhaust his client, so that he has obviously sent clear signals to the West that he is in no hurry over Bosnia, or in general.

America and the West were, it appears to me, inclined to give him time and to tolerate the situation on condition that it does not deteriorate. However, the worst thing for the maintenance of the regime, such as Milosevic's, is if the situation does not change.

Republika Srpska could not endlessly sabotage the implementation of the Dayton agreement, nor could Serbia and Montenegro agree to remain forgotten in the international semi-quarantine, since this is much more difficult to explain to the people than real sections. Thus, the rebellions in Banjaluka and Podgorica took place, caused by similar reasons.

Milo Djukanovic and Biljana Plavsic have discovered that the costs of Milosevic's conflict with the West are high, and that it no longer yields any satisfaction or political compensation. Djukanovic is in a somewhat more auspicious situation and already looks like a certain winner, whilst the President of Republika Srpska has managed to repell one dangerous attack. In all likelihood, she will remain unchallenged in that part of the Serb entity, which means that the unity of Republika Srpska will be preserved only if the other side gives in or loses.

If the local television there could show a picture of Momcilo Krajisnik leaving Hotel Bosnia, perhaps a half of the job would already have been accomplished. It appears that he was not able to get several seconds of air time which would suffice for him to preserve his dignity. On the way from the hotel to the car, he tried to smile and wave at his alleged followers, but the crowd hurled things at him and shouted "thieves, thieves", and the security swiftly pushed him into the car that sped away.

This is how everything should end one day. Various objects should fly from the angry, robbed and deceived crowd in the direction of expensive cars in which the people who were telling them about their dignity, pride and invincibility are hiding and escaping. And, whoever makes the escape, good for him.