The Bosnian Gate

Several hours before the polling places were closed on Sunday, September 14 in Brcko, local television which covers the so called free territory of the city of Brcko and addresses mostly its citizens (Moslems) who once lived in this town (and now live as refugees in the surrounding villages belonging to the Federation), has suddenly started changing its "program scheme". Hard working reporters of this station who had live broadcasts of the elections in Brod continuously for a day and a half, which was considered "the most risky polling place in the entire BH" (Brod belongs to RS and several thousands of Moslems were to vote there), has suddenly switched from reporting from the spot, to the studio.

The new "scheme" consisted of reading repeatedly, in a very dramatic voice and every fifteen minutes, the names of those who did not come yet to vote. The names were read on the request from the local community, but the act looked somewhat like the roll call and almost the appeal to scorn all those who did not fulfill their citizens obligation. These citizens were warned that the destiny of Brcko and the question of whether thousands of refugees would return to their city depends on their votes.

"The electoral battle" for Brcko (along with that for Mostar and Drvar) was one of the fiercest led over the last weekend. In the case of Brcko the only known fact was that the total number of the electorate was 40,990, but the people from the OEBS kept the national structure of the voters as the top most secret. The Serbian side believed that there were more Serbs than Moslems and Croats in the polling lists, but at the same time they feared the votes that the other side will gather in envelopes from abroad, along with somewhat better response of those who left this city at the beginning of the war and have an enormous wish to return. The Bosnian side saw its chance to win in Brcko in the extraordinary response and discipline of the electorate, and in the statistics from 1991 which confirmed the Moslem majority in this city before the war. Several days before the elections, the news arrived that in Belgrade the leaders from Pale were promised in front of Milosevic and Vestendorp that another 3000 Serbs will be allowed to vote in Brcko. On the day of the elections, however, Momcilo Krajisnik has claimed that the Serbs in Brcko have been cheated again and that no 3000 Serbs will vote because those from the international community were lying in the face again. The officials from OEBS claimed that nothing was promised to Krajisnik and that the Pale leaders have simply made up "the Belgrade agreement".

The results from Brcko will be known only at the end of this week, when the official results of the elections will be published. On Monday evening, in the downtown area of the city, the SDS organized an appropriate celebration to thank the Serbian people for the great response in the elections. The owner of a gas station has given in that name an ox which barbecued all night. In the crowded city square people relaxed from the election tension enjoying barbecued ox by the fire, beer and folk music (the star of the night was a guest from Belgrade, the folk singer Biljana Jeftic), persuading each other that Brcko will remain theirs, Serbian. A day before that, the American diplomat Robert Gelbard visited Brcko, and the voters who came from the Moslem side to vote in Brcko, claimed that the international community will make Brcko a multi-ethnic environment and regulate the relations so as to be exemplary for the entire Bosnia. Taking into consideration the number of SFOR's helicopters and armored cars buzzing around while he gave the speech, everything sounded pretty persuasive even to those who haven't seen their former homes for five years. On the Serbian side, it was however counted that SDS won 9242 votes (around 52%), that the radicals won 3695 votes, and the socialists a hundred less. The general belief is that this should be sufficient to keep at least minor Serbian majority in the future Parliament of Brcko with 55 seats. Therefore, the local SDS believes that the barbecued ox was not wasted, although the possibility of being cheated again by the international community is not excluded. They are also convinced that due to the importance of this city for the "Serbian cause" the socialists will enter in to coalition with SDS and radicals. An American journalist who has visited Brcko lately told them, supposedly even before the counting of the votes started, about the future structure of the seats in the Parliament of Brcko: Serbs 48%, Moslems 41%, Croats 11%. The American explained that this proportion has been agreed upon in order to return the multi-ethnic character of the city, and still the Serbs could keep the current majority they have. Even before the counting of the votes began, a British reporter wrote, however, that "the Serbs are sure to lose", that many will move from Brcko and that there is danger of the collapse of the Serbian corridor and new Bosnian quakes.

On Saturday, when the results will be officially announced, many journalists will rush to Drvar and Srebrenica, places where the first ethnic brakes are expected. It is quite possible that Drvar, where the Serbs had 97.3% majority in the population structure, will again get the Serbian mayor, although it is now inhabited mostly by the Croat refugees. Something similar may happen in Srebrenica. Before the elections, it could be heard unofficially that 3500 more Moslems enrolled for the elections than Serbs in this small remote town (where many have died during the war and due to which many will "hit" the Hague). Before the war, Moslems were the majority population of Srebrenica (72.9%), and there are none there now.

If some estimates about the "ethnic breaks" come true, it will be really interesting to see the first sessions of the new municipal Parliaments in Drvar or Srebrenica, that is the Serbian or the Moslem mayor who, with the help of SFOR, rule the cities where their countryman do not live. At least in the beginning, these will be the most complex and expensive local governments known in the world.