The Metamorphosis

At the end of the century this country of Serbia is beginning to resemble the garden of Eden. The results of the last elections, for example, clearly demonstrate that the Serbs have repented the ancestral sin. They are now returning to the original state of being that preceded the ability to comprehend a difference between good and evil.

This disposition to return to whence people were expelled when they became people has been detected before, first from petty shamelessness in speech and behavior that grew ever larger. The fig's leaf was rejected as a foreign object, an unnecessary symbol of awareness of one's own nakedness, sinfulness and a need for restraint. Originally it looked as if it was an abrupt national revival, both impatient and nervous, which was directed against others and transformed into aggression by bad politicians.

But there is no doubt now that the Serb's inability to differentiate between good and evil is primarily to their own detriment, while others are mainly accidental victims. It is this orientation towards a heavenly senselessness that won the majority of votes in the elections. Seselj's voters want to reach the end at once, whereas those voting for the left are still somewhat restrained and hesitant. Milosevic and his Family are afraid that they have gone too far. They would like to pause for the moment, but Seselj does not allow them to do so. He is prodding and reminding them that they themselves have organized a competition for the greatest Serb in which all possible considerations and rules have been abolished.

Yes, Seselj's rise is certainly the most significant electoral result. It appears to me that it owes to the Socialists' loss, which means that a part of the electorate has now turned from evil to what's worse than evil. Some people have obviously lost faith in promises that Milosevic can fix anything, they failed to note that "Serbia's on the move", they do not intend to use the Feketic-Subotica highway, nor do they expect to receive foreign loans. Instead, they think that their misfortune can be mitigated in Seselj's way - by throwing out and expelling all minorities, the Albanians, "the enemies"...A hope that they may reap the benefits does not fully explain their motives. Some will be happy with the tiny consolation they will have in seeing the misery of others, to which they will contribute a little.

However, in order to explain Seselj's rise or his coming to power, which many expect and predict, a theory about the Serbs' heavenly blindness when it comes to good and evil is not entirely satisfactory. Such blindness is always temporary. Nor is blindness such a massive phenomenon so as to cause the victory of someone like Seselj in free elections. Having won some thirty per cent of the votes, I believe, Seselj has now come close to his maximum. If he succeeds and comes to power, this will not be achieved in the elections, in a legal way and under normal condition. But this, by no means, implies that he is faced with insurmountable obstacles.

The final phase of his metamorphosis from a clown into a leader may be uncomfortably close, but blind followers no longer suffice. It is important that the resistance by the majority should weaken, that the majority should lose sense and direction. Such a loss of will to resist could be felt in Serbia in the conflicts that ripped the democratic opposition apart, in a lack of readiness to grasp the monstrosity of Seselj's policy in its entirety, in fooling oneself that this is a party just like any other...

Milosevic has obviously been inattentive for much too long. He relied on Seselj's readiness to wage war against the democratic opposition, to threaten the entire world, to always take on the role of a local scarecrow. That game is over now. The scarecrow has now begun to attract irresistibly an ever greater number of Milosevic's supporters. That process cannot be arrested any longer. Only some other kind of energy, a different movement, like the one that flooded the cities in Serbia, could have thwarted Seselj's advance, but it didn't, perhaps because it was already too late.

In any case, Milosevic and the Socialists are no longer able to move anyone to do anything. They can maintain the present situation for some time, through bribes, intrigues and swindles. But, all that is not enough to stop the wave of fascism, because the essence of this movement is in giving in to inertia, in pleasant abandonment of all attempts to repair something. It is accompanied by an intoxicating feeling of belonging to a big brotherhood of those who are similar to oneself, which is in a natural and easily understandable conflict with the idea of dissimilarity. Everything is so smooth and logical all of a sudden, as if it were governed by the laws of nature rather than by those made by man.

The majority of people join such movements with restraint and only after they have come into power. But, that very same majority in Serbia is today so exhausted and devoid of hope, that it seems as if Seselj can see at least a shorter and a faster way towards some end which is inevitable anyhow. The abyss that opened up begins to pull. Instead of fear, all that is left is a light chill, shiver and curiosity.

The initial nationalistic idea is completely forgotten. Actually it has been turned up-side-down. There are not many people in the ranks of Seselj's supporters who expect him to really conquer some territories and deliver something that Milosevic was not able to. By contrast, it seems to me, that many people clinging to him are driven by a secret, unconscious desire that everything is destroyed and ends up in the worst possible way. There are not so many fools in Serbia who believe that he could simply expel a million Albanians from Kosovo. But, they would certainly like him to try to do it, even though they know where that would lead. This has nothing to do with national interests, but with a suicidal nationalism and a desire that the people vanish in flames.

Vuk Draskovic and SPO have achieved their biggest success in these elections. But, they have never been weaker or less important than they are now. They dropped from second to third place. What's even worse for them, is that it's clear they did their best this time and that they cannot do any better. Their old-fashioned message invoking the idea of restoration repelled the supporters. In addition, the time and the defeats will not have a positive effect on Draskovic's messianic and prophetic powers. In any case, SPO no longer takes center stage, nor is it one of the main actors. This biggest success was rewarded with the significant marginalization of SPO, and, to a certain extent, the entire democratic opposition which Draskovic wanted to represent.

No one is now able to say what will happen in the Serbian Parliament and who will be coalition partners. If Milosevic fails to buy a number of opposition MP's that he needs to have a majority, SPO will be offered the opportunity to enter the government. Of all possible coalition combinations, this seems to be the most realistic, but it does not hold out prospects for stability even in the short term. By sharing power and responsibility, SPO would not be able to bring about a quick change, so that this party, which once was revolutionary, would begin to resemble the New Democracy Party (Nova demokratija).

Finally, the chances of those parties that boycotted the elections to survive, or even take over some initiative, are not particularly big, but, on the other hand, might be very good. These parties relied on the miracle that occurred last winter and decided to base their future on the assumption that this could happen again, or that to work on it happening again is the only thing that is sensible to work on. This might sound a bit romantic, which in politics normally means hopeless. But, who knows. Maybe the people can once again find an inspiration somewhere.

However, there are some predictable situations which could help the noble efforts of the parties that felt brave enough to miss these elections. If, for example, the second round of the presidential elections should fail, which would be logical, then everybody would be back in the game again and looking for a joint candidate. In the meantime, it might turn out that it is impossible to form the government, since there is no majority or a coalition in the parliament...All this really looks like a crisis of power, which we may rejoice at only on the condition that, in such a situation, Seselj is forbidden to hold frequent meetings with some high military or police officials.