Stepping Up the Tempo Toward the Finish

These days yet another British colleague, who in the days of war in Croatia and Bosnia and Herzegovina had spent several years as a correspondent on the territories of Yugoslavia, is staying in Podgorica. He explained that he is in Montenegro for the first time: "While I stayed in Belgrade as a correspondent, I never managed to convince my chiefs to send me to Podgorica, because they simply were not interested in that. We were all interested only in the war. Now they sent me here from London to explain what is happening, and what I see is virtual chaos, which I think might very well decide the future of the entire Yugoslavia. By the way, my editor told me to mention in the text I’m writing, and only incidentally, that these days elections are being held in Serbia"

In the center of Kolasin, across from the Commemorative Residence in which presidential candidates’ rallies are being held these days, there are many cafes. On the window of one cafe it is written — Cafe Bar "Slobo". Beneath the name of the cafe, the proprietor of "Slobo" hung a poster of the presidential candidate Momir Bulatovic with the slogan "Truth". Only a few steps away from Slobo and Momir, the window of a neighboring cafe carries the poster of presidential candidate Milo Djukanovic with several slogans — "He’s the kind of man we need" and "True to ourselves, we never stand alone". Only ten months ago, Momo and Milo were pictured together on posters of a once united Democratic Party of Socialists of Montenegro. These days it is no longer the case, while visitors to neighboring cafes where their elections posters hang are equally divided, giving each other unfriendly glances.

This scene in Kolasin could be taken as a unique paradigm for the Montenegrin political scene ten days before the elections are to be held in this Republic. Those who sit at Slobo’s and Momir’s watering hole are convinced that Milo Djukanovic is "a thief and a separatist", and that his DPS cohorts will work on destroying Yugoslavia and Montenegro. What they say to each other in cafes, they later shout loudly at Momir Bulatovic’s election rallies. Those sitting only a few steps away claim (and later also shout out loudly) that Momir is a "liar" and not a lover of truth, that he is merely "Slobo’s snitch", "a yes-man for the conjugal couple from Dedinje", "a knight in rusted armor", and "a unitarian" who merely wishes to "sell" Montenegro so as to be able to stay in power.

Which one of these once close friends will become President of Montenegro on October 5 will be decided by over 450 thousand voters who, as election day approaches, are pledging their support for Milo and for Momir with growing fervor and fanaticism. According to many assessments, these will be the most interesting, and certainly the most significant elections in the history of the new (admittedly young, but election-rich) Yugoslavia. This was not only the impression of the delegation of journalists from VREME, which stayed in Montenegro last week, but also of many domestic and foreign journalists and observers who swarmed to Podgorica several weeks ago. Many of these developments are taking place in Montenegro for the first time since the creation of FRY. For the first time there is a rift in the leading party, which in itself signifies a rift in the ruling establishment. Also, as the British journal, The Economist, observed recently, "Momir Bulatovic, loyal to Milosevic, could become the first leader in one of the six former Yugoslav Republics who stands to lose his job". The Economist also prognosticates that such an event would, for the first time, cause much unpleasantness for Slobodan Milosevic, emphasizing that because of this, "there is fear of martial law, should his adversary win" in Montenegro.

The Premier of Montenegro, Milo Djukanovic, is solely responsible for all this excitement that is taking place in Montenegro. Since he stated in an interview with VREME (in February of this year) that "Slobodan Milosevic is a spent politician", Djukanovic definitely took the political road from which no adversary of Milosevic’s ever returned to speak about it. Everyone who has tried to fight him up until now, has ended up politically dead, so that Djukanovic’s opinion that Yugoslavia cannot be what a conjugal couple from Belgrade’s Dedinje decides, at first looked to most people like driving a truck full of nitroglycerine over a road full of potholes. Since that truck took off several months ago, Djukanovic still continues to drive it and to stick to his growing reputation as the top, and the only true opposition man in Yugoslavia, despite the fact that he resolutely denies it when he says that he continues to be "part of the FRY political establishment", and that he merely intends to consolidate his position in the October 5 elections.

From among those who up to now chose to confront Milosevic and his uncontested authority, Milo Djukanovic is the first to come from the very center of the political system. He fits perfectly the thesis that Milosevic could only be overthrown in the event that an "insider" emerges who will stand up to him, someone who is familiar with the system and with all the buttons that need to be pushed, with all the mechanisms of getting and keeping power, and who, on top of all that, continues to have his feet deeply planted in the system. Since the beginning of the new, curtailed Yugoslavia, which took the direction pointed out by Milosevic’s index finger, such insider confrontations were unheard of. For instance, Milosevic’s most serious rival, the former Federal Premier Milan Panic, never occupied any position of real power. He was equally removed from the army, the police, and from the good will of the electronic media. The former Mayor of Belgrade, Nebojsa Covic, lost the potential of becoming Milosevic’s serious rival sooner that he had acquired it, as soon as he exited the "gravitational pull" of the ruling party.

However, Milo Djukanovic is not only keeping within the gravitational pull of his DPS, but continues to firmly hold onto the principal positions of power in Montenegro. Control over the Montenegrin police makes him fairly secure, and all of Milosevic’s attempts to liquidate him, along with all others who stand in his way, have proven unsuccessful.

Dragan Sos, Vice-President of the People’s Party of Montenegro, also agrees to a certain extent with the claim that Milo Djukanovic is the strongest and the most serious opposition man in Yugoslavia. He points out that historically the greatest harm to the Catholic Church came from Martin Luther who set out to institute his reforms. Sos states that, as a rule, upstarts within a regime always contribute most to its overthrow.

The People’s Party is one of the six opposition parties which recently signed, along with DPS, an Agreement on the Minimal Requirements for Building a Democratic Infrastructure in Montenegro. All signatories assessed this agreement as "historical" because it represents the first consensus to be reached between the opposition parties and the ruling party (or at least its ruling faction) on certain democratic principles which are of crucial significance for the future of Montenegro. Some Serbian members of the opposition stated that in this way the Montenegrin opposition sold out to Djukanovic, and that at the moment the rift occurred between two interests groups in DPS, it was necessary to strike a death blow and to assume power. The part of DPS which supports Momir Bulatovic called this Agreement mere "political haggling".

One of the criticisms of this Agreement, coming from Bulatovic’s camp, refers to the fact that its signatories include parties which represent Montenegrin Albanians and Muslims. That is why Bulatovic’s camp initiated the argument (in typical Seselj style) that Djukanovic intends to preside over Albanians and Muslims. Recently, at an election rally in Pljevlje, in a very ethnically sensitive area, Djukanovic accused Bulatovic of "starting dangerous fires" throughout Montenegro with his divisions of the population into Montenegrins and the rest, and even of flirting with the ideology of territorial blood ties. "I do not look down upon a single Muslim and Albanian vote, nor a vote by any citizen of Montenegro. Every single vote is individually more important to me than all the support of Belgrade", stated Djukanovic in Pljevlje. Just for having spoken these words, several thousand citizens of Pljevlje present at the rally honored him with perhaps the longest applause he received that evening.

Given what’s at stake, the election camps of both presidential candidates are playing hardball in their pre-election campaigns, and are not hesitating to hit below the belt. Ten days before the elections, Podgorica has become the biggest factory of half-truths and outright lies which are being fabricated with no small amount of skill, before being fed to the public. It appears that both sides are "saving their best for last", and that they have a host of surprises lying in store, even though every day they pull something new out of their sleeves, only to throw it at the believing public. Both sides are accusing each other so intensely, that besides their public campaigns, they are also waging private campaigns. In the Premier’s camp it is possible to hear, off and on, that the President of the Republic enjoys the support of the Serbian secret police, that suitcases of cash keep arriving in Podgorica as donations for Bulatovic’s campaign, and that urgent openings of bank accounts for aid to the "impoverished party" are only a front for money laundering. Both sides simultaneously keep accusing each other that their campaigns reek of cigarettes and gasoline, although the sources of the stench are supposedly different.

By contrast with private campaigns, which are more or less similar, the public pre-election campaigns of Bulatovic and Djukanovic have very few things in common. Djukanovic’s TV commercials and public appearances in rallies throughout Montenegro are virtually faultless, and can be said to represent the best examples of political marketing ever undertaken in these territories.

At every campaign stop, numerous audiences (Djukanovic’s camp claims that his rallies have twice the attendance that they had last year, when Djukanovic and Bulatovic were on the same campaign team) are shown video footage of Emir Kusturica, Goran Bregovic, Pedja Mijatovic, together with average citizens and satisfied pensioners who are happy that their pensions are being paid out on time, along with footage of youths who would prefer having mobile telephones to being mobilized by the army.

Bulatovic’s campaign is far simpler and less expensive, and visually differs just as much as the gentlemanly actor Voja Brajovic differs from the obese TV journalist, Emilo Labudovic (with the trademark disheveled look that includes an unbuttoned shirt and a loosened tie) who led Bulatovic’s TV promotion in Podgorica. The atmosphere of Bulatovic’s campaign is irresistibly reminiscent of the "meetings of truth" of bygone days: before the politicians take the stage, in the absence of the artists who are helping in the campaign promotion, there is the unavoidable loudspeaker music which predominates in patriotic songs.

Momir Bulatovic’s campaign team claims that their entire campaign is based on two fundamental issues — on the fight against crime, and on the fight against those who want to break up Yugoslavia. Regardless of the authenticity of such issues and of the way this campaign is conducted, it appears that it is not entirely ineffectual. The people who attend Bulatovic’s rallies, just like the man in Moraca Hall in Podgorica, are more prone to putting down Milo Djukanovic with invective such as "Milo’s a thief" or "Milo’s a criminal", then they are to supporting Momir Bulatovic. The President of Montenegro and all of his assistants trample daily on issues of "thievery" and the criminally rich, and are sorely worried about the fate of Yugoslavia which Djukanovic wants to break up. Despite what someone might think about all this, Djukanovic’s side must constantly contend with such imposed issues in their pre-election campaign, but also with the fact that many people are easily swayed by such stories.

In Podgorica itself, the majority of local analysts claim that Djukanovic is presently leading and should eventually win the elections. Djukanovic himself, in his campaign rallies, is stating with no small amount of self-confidence that the October 5 elections are a mere formality, and that everything will be concluded already in the first round. Djukanovic’s self-confidence is often transformed into a euphoria of victory among some of his allies. Some of them, in their insider discussions are already hurrying with decisions on who gets what position (especially ambassadorial positions). A serious criticism that could be leveled at Djukanovic’s campaign concerns the considerable entourage that attends his every rally and on which he appears to have little influence. The considerable number of expensive automobiles and jeeps which zoom through the towns of Montenegro are sometimes counterproductive and give off too much of the style of Clinton. That seems to bother some people. During Djukanovic’s promotion in Pljevlje, a middle-aged woman pulled at the sleeve of a VREME journalists, telling him excitedly: "you should write that he is the Clinton of Montenegro". In front of the unfinished hall in Pljevlje, where the rally was held, there were many who grumbled as they watched the considerable entourage which followed the presidential candidate, shouting the slogan "He’s the kind of man we need".

In a Montenegro fiercely divided between "the man we need" and "truth", between Milo and Momo, after October 5 nothing will be the way it was before. That is at least what has been expected ever since Milo Djukanovic decided to step from under Milosevic’s protection. All before him fell, after taking such a crucial step. He is the first one who has a real chance for surviving and continuing on.