Burden of Change

1997 began with a lot of hope — and ended with Milan Milutinovic. Is there any reason to expect that the end of this coming year will be any different from its beginning?

Well, we’ll try to come up with something, at least not to jinx the new year, at least not for the holidays. If everything, let us say, was O.K. a year ago, if all that which happened was merely high flying which had to be followed by a landing, at least a crash landing was not imperative. If Serbia looked unusually beautiful at that time, now it looks unusually ugly and devoid of all hope. If Milosevic somehow managed to survive the eggs and the whistles, I have a hard time believing that all that fervor will not survive Milutinovic.

Serbia now has a president and a parliament, it will soon get a government of some sort, but all that there was in the way of charm, intellect and spirit has withdrawn and is not represented in any institution. Can such a government keep power in peace and tranquillity, as if everything is as it should be, while it waits for the better side of Serbia to get used to it, to stop resisting and to lower its expectations? Are we going to be getting live coverage of parliamentary sessions as final proof that there is nothing of consequence happening there?

I am not saying that it is impossible to imagine political life here without Djindjic, Kostunica and Vesna Pesic, but someone must speak in the name of that will and that idea which stood behind Coalition Zajedno and inspired the winter protests. If no one in parliament can do this, then it will become as stuffy as a house without windows. That could continue for a little while, but many MP’s from other parties will occasionally want to say something worth saying, if only to be different and to fill the unpleasant vacuum. In this way the democratic platform will once again come to life, albeit more slowly than otherwise.

However, there are indications that the process could be speeded up if it proves impossible to constitute a government. There is probably wheeling and dealing between the Left and Draskovic on this question, and I think that Seselj is right when he says that this is a lost cause. There is no one ready to offer Draskovic as much as he thinks he is worth. And the parliament will look silly and impossible even if he accepts to be a constructive opposition for a minority leftist government.

The problem is that Milosevic is continuing to adhere to the kinds of policies Seselj espouses, while he is seeking support from Draskovic, with Seselj being expected to be the opposition. Thus, for example, Draskovic would be expected not to oppose the ousting of Milo Djukanovic, to oppose the provocation of unrest, and the possible, great, bloody conflicts in Montenegro and Kosovo. He already demonstrated extreme reservations toward Djukanovic, which are unexpected if we consider the fact that both of them constantly speak about Europe and the world. In much the same way, Slavko Perovic is offering a helping hand to Bulatovic in Montenegro, all the while talking not only about Europe, but also about Montenegrin sovereignty. These two staunch opposition leaders, Draskovic and Perovic, somehow found themselves collaborating at a time when they are needed most by the regime.

In any case, among present political players, nearly everyone has already been something else, while the first change is probably the most difficult, which means that in the new year we will probably see many changed people behind the same old faces. It has already happened that some leaders nearly changed parties, while among the supporters of the Socialists, the Radicals and SPO, there are not too many of those who vote consistently. People change, but everyone here is still around, and no one is giving up, except when someone among the Socialists completely goes out of favor.

However, the latter practice has still not taken root, and there is still a general belief that some changes can be accomplished by voting. It is nearly certain that the parliamentary elections in Serbia will be repeated in 1998, but an outcome of the conflict in Montenegro will most likely precede them. If Milosevic were somehow to manage to stop Djukanovic and to force acceptance of strengthening federal power, then the elections in Serbia would not be of such great significance. That is why Djukanovic’s fate is of utmost importance for the democratic opposition in Serbia, and the chances of him surviving are realistically much greater than the election prospects of the Serbian opposition.

If the new year began with Milutinovic, that does not mean that anything important should be expected of him. The greatest hope lies in Montenegro, and the greatest fear, in Kosovo. Another insufficiently observed change, whose effects must inevitably be felt, is the fact that Americans have decided to settle in Bosnia indefinitely. It is not exactly as if Serbia is suddenly bordering with Texas, but in other matters, it is not that much different. At least, those who are waiting for the Russians to arrive can afford a long, tranquil sleep.