What's This Forfeit Doing?

The opposition wing of the Serbian political scene resembles the burned down building of the Yugoslav Drama Theater (JDP). The stage has burned down, the performances are carried out in smaller halls with what remained of the stage set. Mostly one-actor plays and cabarets. The only difference is that, in the case of the JDP, there is some light in sight and that the stage should be rebuilt by St. Vid's Day. The Serbian opposition, which usually used to organize gatherings on that day, is still playing on the stage where all signposts have been torn down, and they are still pondering about how to arrange the new set. Draskovic intends to join in with the government, Djindjic is contemplating about forming a shadow government, Vesna Pesic expects the formation of a strong democratic block, the others are mainly searching for some space for themselves. As opposed to the JDP, the Serbian opposition also needs new actors, but this audition has been open for years, with no success whatsoever.

Our guest Ph.D. Vladimir Cvetkovic, professor of the Belgrade School of Political Sciences and editor-in-chief of the magazine The New Serbian Political Thought, agrees that in 1998, a new play will be set on the domestic political scene. Before giving a prediction of what might happen, Cvetkovic insists on analzying the current situation: "It's sad, if not even tragic, that Serbian parliamentarism has come down to relations and agreements between the two marital couples. Last year, parliamentary and presidential elections were the product of agreements between them, and also this newest alliance of the left coalition and the until-recently-leader of the democratic opposition. This means that the SPO will strive, at all costs, to maintain the current status quo in the political environment of Serbia. But this will be very hard, because of the fact that the Serbian parliament is not the force which maintains the real political balance. It is probably possible to keep and patch this state of political forces for some time, but sooner or later a new crisis is inevitable, which does not necessarily mean that its denouement will be democratic", says Cvetkovic.

According to his words, Vuk Draskovic has definitely compromised himself as an opposition leader through his hinted cooperation with the Socialists, which is essentially good, because the story about the leader capable of uniting the entire opposition became superfluous long ago. In announcements of a possible new arrangements of the political stage, Vladimir Cvetkovic estimates more fuss in the center, among the parties that once belonged to what was unofficially called the liberal-democratic block. Cvetkovic asserts that the position around the center is the most endangered, because it is backed up with the least social infrastructure. "This layer of population is just being created and the thesis about the middle class that is being created here doesn't hold, because it has never existed in the real sense of the term." In his opinion, the one with the greatest chance to dig itself into the center is Djindjic's Democratic Party, under the condition that it keeps and fortifies its existing infrastructure. In the nearest future, Cvetkovic does not exclude also better collaboration of the parties who emerged after separating from the DS.

The leadership of the Democratic Party (DS), for whom many expect new initiatives for a new partnership of one part of the Serbian opposition, will first have to, it seems, clarify to its members how it envisions its future operations outside the institutions. That nothing goes smoothly was confirmed with the recent turbulent nine hours' session of the City Board of this party, during which Djindjic experienced a real downpour of criticism from the municipality boards, especially those from Vojvodina. After this session, in an interview for the press, Djindjic stated the immediate goals of his party: 70,000 new members by June this year, or 120,000 members by the end of 1998. "If DS becomes a nest of officials and some members, I don't need such a party," said Djindjic. Several days later, the leader of DS said that Serbia will have two governments this year: the official one and the 'expert' shadow government, which will be formed by the democratic opposition at the end of February.

"We shall invite all parties. Along with GSS, there will be DSS, the Democratic Alternative, the Social-Democrats, the Democratic Center and the parties from the coalition 'Vojvodina'. The ties will not be as within the coalition 'Zajedno'; instead, it will be an association of experts," recently explained Zoran Djindjic. Reacting to this idea, DSS has pointed out that they are not entirely sure this idea of another government is right, and expressed reserves towards the actual effects of its operations. The vice-president of the DC Bora Kuzmanovic noticed at the press conference this week that DC expects the beginning of negotiations of the opposition parties about possible cooperation and union, and not about the formation of a shadow government.

One of the most persistent supporters of the necessity of playing the new political game on the Serbian political stage is Mile Isakov, president of the Assembly of the Reformist Democratic Party of Vojvodina. As the principal coordinator of the gathering of the parties gathered within the Alliance of the Democratic Parties, Isakov announced at the end of last year that at the beginning of this year he would try once more to bring to the same table Draskovic, Djindjic and Vesna Pesic, because of common interest. In his interview for VREME, Isakov predicts that this will be the year of stormy change and almost "general overhaul" of one part of the political stage occupied by the democratic opposition. According to his opinion, the shocks will happen within the big parties, first of all SPO and DS. It is quite understandable, points out Isakov, if we know that in Serbia things haven't changed a bit over the last 7-8 years.

Announcing what is to come, Ph.D. Dusan Janjic, vice president of the Social-Democratic Party, predicts two parallel processes: on the one hand, there will be the inevitable gathering of the parties in larger political units and a creation of new political alliances, while on the other, simultaneously there will be the development of new, and continuing of existing, fragmentation of the existing political parties. Referring to the results of some research, Janjic (who is also working in the Institute of Social Sciences) stresses that in this moment, even more than a million SPS's voters and around 850,000 opposition voters are quite hesitant about choosing their political options. This hesitation is a real chance for the Social Democratic Party and some other political parties. Dusan Janjic insists on the valid data according to which all social-democratic options in Serbia (although under different names) even at their best can get only around 850,000 votes. Janjic considers this as an important potential political force if all of the until now dispersed votes concentrate around one political alliance. First of all, Janjic has in mind the Democratic Center and the entire block of the parties from Vojvodina. This moderate political block, together with the so-called liberal-democratic block, could potentially win a majority in some future elections. Room for cooperation exists, which doesn't mean that it will exist in the future too, because coalition potentials and the future plans of some closely related parties are not, as it seems, similar. For Social-Democrats, whose president is Janjic, he says that they have enough ideas and strength to initiate the integration process.

The personal projection of our guest says that SPS will dominate the political stage in the future too, but that this party will undergo fierce internal turbulence and rechecking, especially about the collaboration in the left wing, which is too costly for the Socialists. In spite of the trend of broadening their influence to one part of the urban youth and some segments of the more educated population, the Radicals too will soon be faced with serious internal rechecking, Janjic expects. First of all, they will have to reconsider a change of the party image, renouncing extremism and being less rigorous towards other nations and peoples. Within the so-called liberal-democratic block, Janjic sees that only two parties have a chance - Draskovic's SPO, if the already started tearing apart of the party does not damage it too badly, and Djindjic's DS, if their leader succeeds to regenerate the party's network and to strengthen it's infrastructure.

Meeting and parting, in-party disputes, leaders who believe that when they turn one blind eye, the eyes of Serbia automatically become blind, and the continuous audition for new actors who will maybe know how to put a stop to this chaos, became the integral part of the Serbian political picture. This year we could get two governments for the first time, and new political and strategic alliances may appear, of the kind we have never had before or could have ever even envisioned. But whatever comes, and no matter how badly elections turn or how wrong estimates may be, one thing is completely certain - no one will ever close his political enterprise and announce bankruptcy.