Dead But Still Breathing

The news is good, that is to say, its bad for rotten people, conspirators, thugs and desperados, even though it can hardly be said that in those regions, in Montenegro, Republika Srpska and East Slavonija, things resemble the coming of the Kingdom of Heaven.

The remains of Vukovar have finally been handed back to Croatia, which should give Belgrade a sense of relief. That place of crime, shame and defeat will no longer be quite in full view, and what Zagreb intends to do with it will no longer be of concern to Slobodan Milosevic, nor to me. Republika Srpska got a government to which Slobodan Milosevic will no longer be indispensable, while in Podgorica, Milo Djukanovic successfully weathered the first storm, probably the biggest one that the local lovers of "truth" could stage.

Everything slipped away somehow, went on its own and against Milosevic. Everything he promised to guard and keep, he lost. It all somehow came together and poured in at once, at the beginning of this year, like some enormous wave threat, even though the danger could be only illusory. While in the capital of the great lost state, the newly elected President Milutinovic is calmly negotiating with party factions and fingering out future ministers, as if everything with his state and his election is completely kosher.

Supposedly, certain thinkers have thought up a certain rule according to which the type of authority observed here in Serbia and its supreme head can last for a long time and survive all kinds of misfortunes, and only lose power once they lose a war or commit election fraud. This nice, logical theory is not operative here, which is a pity, given that all the preconditions are present. I think that the problem lies precisely in logic, which has been proven inapplicable here, at least not in any easily understood relation between cause and effect.

Wouldn’t you agree that we were witness, more than once, to Milosevic jumping out of a window, and were certain that gravitation would take its effect, but it always turned out that a safety net, hidden to our view, would miraculously scoop him up. Having executed several times a feigned salto mortale, he persuaded the public that he is not susceptible to the laws of nature, nor to any other kinds of laws, so that no one is trying any longer to draw logical conclusions, let alone to demand any settling of accounts, or paying of bills. Serbia has become a country in which it is unusually difficult to think. People are uncertain whether their eyes are playing tricks on them, whether their memory serves them correctly, and whether they are at all capable of distinguishing between cause and effect. There is no firm ground to stand on on any one of these points: everything is arguable, arbitrary and subject to personal interpretation, which adds a hallucinogenic element to an otherwise moot reality. Some might say that this is merely Balkan jiggery-pokery, or that this illustrates the surprising imagination and tendency of our people for phantasmagoria. I have nothing against such interpretation, except that I see all too well too many masters of backstage illusion and artificial fog disseminators, and I’m careful to proclaim the confusion and exasperation of their victims for national virtues. While counting their chickens, swindlers here have the habit of flattering the people and of being impressed by its modesty, religiosity and disdain for worldly riches. And just to make sure, were the people to refuse to be swindled, then a truncheon is always at the ready.

Consequently, the secret of Milosevic’s endurance lies in the describe, not too original combination of fraud and force. This helped him survive defeat in war, sanctions, hyperinflation and swindling of his people, refugee immigration and election rigging. Of course, all that weakened him, but he always knew how to weaken his opponents even more, so that the political stage in Serbia is now only peopled by petty, weak, discredited or disreputable politicians who, as if that was not enough, are in conflict, and compared to whom Milo Djukanovic resembles a veritable colossus of statesmanship.

And still, Milosevic’s survival skills will get their ultimate test this year. Even though he was forced to lend his support to the new "Banjaluka" Government in Republika Srpska, he will not be too happy if international help comes there, if life there begins, if it turns out that there is no anti-Serb conspiracy, and if some of the most sensitive witnesses appear before the Hague Tribunal. He will be even less pleased by developments in Montenegro, which also has no intention of continuing to put up with international isolation. Momir Bulatovic proved unqualified for the job of an insurrectionist, he ruined the election chances of his party, and I would not be surprised if even before the elections he were to ask permission of Milosevic to leave Podgorica.

On the other hand, Djukanovic’s defense is offense, and he is announcing support for the democratic opposition in Serbia. As he was congratulated not only by the diplomatic corps, but by every opposition party from Serbia, including General Perisic, Milosevic is once again finding himself left out. Just as with the attempt at election fraud which initiated the protests in Serbia, Milosevic is losing every day with his refusal to acknowledge Djukanovic. And if he acknowledges him, he will have to strain to prove that he is not a spent politician, and that he can still spar with younger challengers. And that would really be worth watching.