Pajama Government

Despite the discrete warning by international community high representative Carlos Westendorp that a government must be formed at last Saturday’s session of the Republika Srpska (RS) parliament, the SDS and Radicals couldn’t have cared less about a government. At first, it seemed that they had managed to delay the election but few people believed that MPs would come back just hours after Speaker Dragan Kalinic decided to adjourn the session. Hans Schumacher, the deputy high representative, wasn’t surprised because he knew everything had been prearranged. The door was opened for Milorad Dodik, the prime minister elect, to address parliament in consultations with MPs.

At first it seemed that the rumors of Dodik, leader of the Independent Social Democrats, being appointed prime minister were there to scare the SDS and Radicals. Before a statement came from RS President Biljana Plavsic’s cabinet, Dodik saw himself forming a government "with the support of the majority in parliament". A day before the session, Mladen Ivanic resigned as prime minister elect. Many people believe that all he did was pull out in time to avoid all the traps set for him. Ivanic refused to be appointed by Westendorp and he didn’t make any deals with federalist parties. He handed back his mandate to Plavsic but just hours later he was on his way to Belgrade at the call of FRY President Slobodan Milosevic. In the end he kept his promise and resigned because his government program did not meet with the approval of the SDS and Radical Party.

There were indications that the SDS and Radicals might soften their stand after a meeting in Zvornik where Momcilo Krajisnik promised to convince his SDS party to agree. Krajisnik quickly changed his mind after going to Pale where Aleksa Buha, the SDS leader, told him that any agreement would mean treason. People who know how hard line the Pale leaders are knew that there could be no compromise if Ivanic went ahead with his promise of "appointing non-partisan figures to head the ministries of internal affairs, information, finance and justice". Those posts are important and everyone knew that Ivanic had spoken too hastily. Just one hour before the parliament session, Ivanic held a press conference in Banja Luka and said Dodik will have a much easier time than he did. But he also seemed to mildly criticize Dodik because he claimed "Dodik will certainly be voted into office by parties from the Moslem-Croat Federation". The SDS and Radicals insisted that the SDS should get nine ministerial posts, the Radicals five and Ivanic refused explaining: "that isn’t a concept which can resolve the crisis in the RS. That concept gives one center of power, Pale, greater legitimacy because it will control 14 ministries". Ivanic as prime minister elect wasn’t under dispute and the SDS and Radicals stressed that in parliament after Dodik was introduced.

The SDS and Radicals’ walkout from a parliament session and the forming of a government without those two parties is a sure sign that the situation in the RS hasn’t improved after last Saturday’s parliament session. Plavsic optimistically trusts the man she brought in because "he is young, capable and does not leave people indifferent" but she did not believe "the SDS and Radicals will readily accept anything that was adopted in their absence" because of the "undemocratic thinking of the SDS which believes power sharing means a fall from power". Plavsic said the hastily elected government came amid fears that Westendorp would appoint a government which would include Moslems. The fact that the government was appointed with Moslem votes did not bother her: "we knew that if we didn’t form a government, Westendorp would. It didn’t matter who would vote for the government".

Dodik wasn’t appointed by Westendorp although the high representative’s threats did help nor does his cabinet include Moslems. Federalist parties did vote for him but he didn’t give them anything in return, at least not in public. And there’s the dilemma, what happens to the government if the Moslems refuse obedience to Dodik. Without them he can only rely on Westendorp to get something through parliament.

The key vote this time was in the hands of federal MP Franjo Majdancic who appeared at the session in the early hours of the morning after the SDS and Radicals walked out. At one moment, when Plavsic, Dodik and the international community came under heavy patriotic fire, Westendorp walked out and didn’t come back. Some saw his walkout as disgust at the SDS and Radical ferocity. Later his departure was linked to "the arrival of a helicopter which brought Majdancic to parliament in his pajamas". That was the vote Dodik needed to become prime minister.

The easiest way for Plavsic to tread on the toes of the SDS and Radicals was to appoint Dodik "the sinner, godless traitor". The limits of good taste were passed when Radical MP Pantelija Damjanovic, owner of the hotel Bosna, rose to compare Dodik to Michael Jackson and add that he liked little boys. Dodik didn’t care much about the insults or the possibility of the SDS and Radicals forming a government of their own. Dodik told VREME: "That possibility shouldn’t be excluded but it’s no good. I both expect and know for sure that we will establish a single police for the entire RS in the shortest possible time". Dodik made a short presentation of his program with stress on taking the country out of the economic dead end. He also feels it is necessary for Banja Luka to become the RS capital and for the RS army to join NATO’s Partnership for Peace program. Dodik’s Defense Minister, retired General Manojlo Milovanovic rejected that program recently, saying it was unacceptable for the RS.

Relations between Plavsic and Dodik have improved, growing from a mutual dislike to almost friendly. Dodik used to accuse Plavsic of extreme nationalism and then stood at her side in the fight against the corrupt leaders in Pale. When Plavsic formed her own party, Dodik criticized her for rallying "boot lickers, who won’t be able to do anything" and named Ostoja Kremenovic in that context. Kremenovic was in the previous government and is one of the deputy prime ministers in Dodik’s. The new government includes other people who had problems with the Pale leaders. Some were arrested and mistreated like Milovan Stankovic (a participant in the takeover of radio and TV transmitters for Plavsic) who is now internal affairs minister.

In the meantime, Plavsic changed her opinion of Dragan Kalinic, who kept his post of parliament speaker. She personally recommended him for the post "because he knows how to conduct sessions well". After the session she criticized him for being one-sided and subordinating party interests to state interests.

On the other hand, Pale have cut the signal of the Serb radio and TV in Banja Luka, definitely splitting the media. Many people believe that the Pale leaders will turn the town into their own enclave stronghold. Krajisnik warned that the situation is leading the RS into chaos and recalls the situation just prior to the war. Aleksa Buha feels that the division of the RS has been made official now. The Radicals said they would continue where they left off before the walkout and appoint a government and Plavsic’s SNS is warning that everyone who doesn’t show respect for the new government will face criminal prosecution.

In the meantime, SFOR troop numbers have been stepped up around government buildings, especially in Pale, to allow a peaceful handover.

Some people are still wondering what Ivanic did wrong and Dodik did right.

It’s hard to say what their participation in forming a government will bring either of them, but the belief is that Ivanic profited more, winning credit for the next elections while Dodik could find that one night in parliament will cost him his political career. It’s clear that the RS has stepped into a difficult and uncertain year with indications that the rift between the east and west of the country could become unbridgeable.