Help For the "Third Man"

Will the collaboration of Vuk Draskovic and what is left of the Serbian Renewal Movement with the Socialists and JUL additionally strengthen Vojislav Seselj and his Serbian Radical Party? In the long run, this question is perhaps even more interesting than whether Slobodan Milosevic will finally decide to form the government with Draskovic, or whether he will estimate that this is not a good move and schedule another premature election in Serbia. Well informed sources claim that the Socialist Party of Serbia is conducting a public opinion poll these days - and this party does this very professionally - in order to find out if they can win 126 seats (a majority) in the Serbian Assembly in premature elections. If they find out that this is possible, Draskovic's dream of becoming part of the government may easily go to pieces. However, regardless of whether this happens or not, political analysts all agree that, so far, the charismatic leader of the democratic coalition has further damaged his reputation with the electorate due to his cooperation with the ruling left wing.  Ph.D. Ognjen Pribicevic from the Belgrade Institute of Social Sciences thinks that it will be better for the political position of Draskovic himself if he becomes part of the government, than if he fails in this undertaking. The number of his supporters has so decreased, that he doesn’t have much to lose by becoming part of the government. In any case, the question is to whom will those votes go? Maybe to Seselj?

Ph.D. Pribicevic thinks not, i.e., that by SPO's becoming part of the government, Seselj will neither lose nor gain. The two electorates are so different that the leader of the Radicals has not much chance of  moving in on what, until recently, was Draskovic's domain.  The research of the Institute of Social Sciences, and Pribicevic himself show that the electorates of SPO and SRS do not overlap. However, part of SPO's supporters, mostly from the edges of urban areas, voted for the Radicals in the last elections. But the part which, in the last elections, remained with Draskovic consists mostly of citizens of a democratic orientation, remainders of the middle class, employees of a higher status (especially in Belgrade), people carried by Draskovic's charisma. There's not much new space here for Seselj, and Pribicevic believes that these votes will go to the democrats if Draskovic enters the government.

Ph.D. Srbobran Brankovic from the Institute of Political Sciences, however, believes that SPO and SRS have electorates which share mutual points. Among the supporters of Seselj, there is a pro-Seselj hard core, then there is a left wing where support for the Radicals overlaps with support for the Socialists, and a right wing which finds Seselj's anti-communism important from the period when he raised his voice against "the red witch," and, from which it can be said, is an inclination toward Draskovic. In fact, the closeness of this right wing with one part of the disappointed supporters of Draskovic has brought fresh votes to Seselj in the last October's elections. In that sense, it can be said that Seselj will politically profit this time too, because Draskovic has embittered many of his supporters by flirting with the government, and they will be even more embittered if he takes part in the government.

Analyzing the history of the SRS from its beginning until now, it is not difficult to find proof for the claim that this party, although formally always in opposition, in key moments has always helped the government. So it is easy to assume that Milosevic would rather have Seselj in his government than Draskovic - but Milosevic doesn't make decisions of this kind all alone any more. The West, that is the U.S.A. (in fact, "the foreign hand which will not lead us"), who, as it seems, holds the President of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia on an even shorter leash, wouldn't like at all to see Vojislav Seselj and his supporters in the government. Especially not now, when the crisis in Kosovo is seriously escalating. The Serbian Radical Party has, in its declaration from 1991, asked for "suppressing the separatist rebellion in Kosovo by using all available means", and, in order to disable the "leftovers" of this rebellion, among other things, it is asked for the "efficient prevention of the creation of political and territorial autonomy of Kosovo and Metohija of any form", "that martial law is pronounced in Kosovo and Metohija and military administration introduced, which will last at least 10 years", and that "all Albanians who wish so are to be given emigration passports"...