Thin Red Line

On the evening news on state television (March 1), the President of FR Yugoslavia, Slobodan Milosevic, expressed his condolences to the families of four policemen killed in Kosovo, while the President of Serbia, Milan Milutinovic, announced that the problems of Kosovo can be resolved exclusively in Serbia, and that “terrorism directed toward their internationalization will bring the greatest harm to those who resort to such weapons”.  In the same TV program, the MUP of Serbia announced that its members, reacting to “more than one synchronized armed terrorist attack” in Drenica, “killed sixteen terrorists and apprehended nine individuals”.  Five more individuals who were found in possession of significant amounts of firearms and explosives were also denied freedom of movement, it is added in the statement.  As the announcement was read, the still footage included in the background a white “Lada Niva” riddled with bullets, and a table full of appropriated hand grenades, missiles for hand held rockets...

TERRORISM: That’s as much as Milosevic and the Police were willing to comment on an armed action whose official casualty tally is twenty dead.  Information not released includes names of killed Albanians, the number of wounded, how many policemen and with what weaponry participated in the conflict, whether the killed were armed, whether they’d been previously listed as dangerous, whether there were civilian casualties, and if so, under what circumstances, and much, much more which the public has a right to know.  There is an impression that what transpired was a conflict between two armies — one regular, the other guerrilla — a conflict between two peoples.  Admittedly, daily press reported the basic unfolding of the conflict; from very skeletal details it is possible to conclude that the MUP of Serbia undertook a war operation of capturing and cleansing enemy territory.

Nearly all Serbian politicians — both in the Government and in the Opposition — unanimously condemned “Albanian terrorism and separatism” in Kosovo, and called on the Police and responsible institutions to hold out to the very end in protecting the constitutional system and the territorial integrity of the country.  It is emphasized by the Federal Minister of Domestic Affairs, Zoran Sokolovic, that terrorism is a global evil which no single state combats by dithering over its weapons.  In this context, claims are being made that it is clear “that which has been supposed for sometime already: the political centers of the Shiptars of Kosmet are clearly in tandem with the organized terrorists of the so-called Liberation Army of Kosovo”.

It is a fact that attacks on the Police and on civilians, including murders, for which the Liberation Army of Kosovo has taken responsibility (UCK in Albanian), are unquestionably acts of armed insurgence which have never been condemned by leaders of Kosovo Albanians, such as the President of the Democratic Union of Kosovo (DSK), Ph.D. Ibrahim Rugova.  However, it is also a fact that the actions and the influence of UCK have been persistently marginalized by Belgrade; it was claimed that terrorism there is still in the budding stage and that it is merely being flaunted by “tabloids” in order to increase circulation, while news items of machine gun fire directed against police stations and of murders were being relegated to the bottom of the dailies’ disasters section.  It is as if everyone waited for frustrations on both sides to reach the boiling point to only then — under duress — begin making radical moves.  Whether now developments will follow the direction of escalation of the conflict or of initiating the negotiating process will depend on many circumstances, of which the topmost is the approach of the relevant international community.

In the event that the whole “Kosovo knot” is relegated exclusively to an uncompromising “battle against terrorism”, there will inevitable be war in that territory.  On the other hand, there is an opinion that Milosevic, after having demonstrated such resolution, is in actual fact ready to sit down, in due time, to the negotiating table with the leaders of Kosovo Albanians.  Confirmation for this can be seen in the meeting between Milutinovic and the Serbian Minister of Education, Jovan Todorovic, after which it was announced that despite recent events, work will continue on implementing the Milosevic-Rugova agreement on education.

Despite the bloodshed, the case of Drenica as “liberated territory” under the control of UCK has still not been resolved.  According to press agency reports, the MUP of Serbia has withdrawn from villages in which fighting took place.  At the same time, UCK aggression had continued throughout the entire territory of Kosovo in the days that followed, while local Serbs began organizing night vigils.  Refugees from Krajina, residing in Glogovci, were evacuated to Pristina, while the UCK called all able-bodied Albanians to arms and announced reprisals.  Also, the pressure of the international community on Milosevic to begin negotiations is literally growing by the hour.

It is certain that the red line separating war from peace is growing thinner, and that there is little time remaining.

Balance of Power

According to information released by Koha ditore, MUP of Serbia has around 13,000 policemen in Kosovo, and can bring within 72 hours an additional 25,000 policemen from the rest of Serbia.  There is good reason to presume that these estimates are somewhat exaggerated.  Apart from this, the police has at its disposal helicopters and armed transport vehicles, and there are claims being made that it closely cooperates with different paramilitary groups similar to those from the wars in the former Yugoslavia.  According to the same sources, the Yugoslav Army in Kosovo has around 6,500 soldiers whose principal function is to protect border crossings.  But it can depend at any given moment on some ten thousand soldiers stationed in Nis, Leskovac and Uzice, as well as on 4,000 reservists — Kosovo locals.