Threat of Sanctions - Need for Dialogue

Whatever anyone might think about the value and efficiency of international sanctions, the fact is that they are a measure rarely resorted to — only in extreme circumstances, where diplomatic skills are no longer of any use.  The government of a country deserving such treatment needs to have behaved with extreme force and aggression by world standards, in a world where, in any case, aggression is certainly not lacking.  However, Slobodan Milosevic is the only head of state who has managed to expose his country to sanctions already for the second time.  Isn’t that an indication of some special talent?

It could be that the position of the Serbian people is especially complex in the sense of historical and territorial conflicts with other peoples, neighbors and minorities, but why is it that every one of these conflicts is firstly approached with weapons.  As I do not think this necessary, and as I know that there was never any type of world conspiracy, I can only conclude that it is precisely the Serbs who are stuck with the most trigger-happy hired gun of the latter half of this century.  Attempts to explain to him something about rights and laws, attempts on which the world was resting high hopes, are only now finally proving futile.

OK, but isn’t it evident that these world powers are applying double standards, many good Serbians ask themselves.  If I understood right, those who ask this, admit all sins of the existing regime, but think that it is not fair that others are excused for similar behavior.  Well, that’s true.  The application of international law contains certain exceptions and extenuating circumstances where big, powerful countries are concerned.  But that is small consolation for us.  Instead of blaming others who are going unpunished, it would be better for us to try to improve ourselves and to stay clear of bad company.

Another question posed locally for the international community is this: how is it that we are the only ones denied the right to fight against terrorism?  This deserves closer consideration, because it concerns the gist of the matter.  Admittedly, it is true that there is a paradox in condemning Albanian terrorism and at the same time shrugging off Serb police intervention, but there is a logic in this paradox.  What is more, in this case this is the only normal and completely expected attitude, which can easily be understood if the film were played back into the past.

The anti-terrorist expedition resulted in many civilian victims, and appeared less as a police action than as a military campaign for occupying enemy territory.  It is as if a realization appeared that the Liberation Army of Kosovo (OVK) mainly operates from the area of Drenice, that the local population is either directly or indirectly connected with it, and that therefore everyone is guilty: male and female, old and young alike.  Because of this, it appears that the brutality of the operation was not accidental but typical, which inevitably caused horror in the rest of the world, fear of escalating the war further and, ultimately, resulted in sanctions.

By contrast with classic terrorists, who are always made up of small, illegal groups of religious, ethnic or ideological fanatics, OVK evidently has broad support from the local population, which makes it more of a rebel army, but its methods are clearly terrorist.  These methods, such as murder from ambush, will not be held up or defended under any circumstances by anyone in the world.  What is at issue is a principle that is too important for the security of the entire world, and for which no exceptions can be made.  That is why this terrorism is condemned without reservation even by those who are well aware of the beastly nature of the regime in Serbia.

But still, the ministers of foreign affairs of the most powerful countries did not take too much time to think who had to be punished.  It is known that Milosevic knows how to organize a war better and more quickly than anyone, it is known that in Kosovo and around it, possibilities exist for easy expansion, and it is also known how Albanian terrorism arose.  Namely, it was preceded by many years of putting up with a martial law regime.  Even at the beginning, Milosevic demonstrated that he would shoot and kill at every sign of active resistance, including peaceful demonstrations.  Then for years he admirably handled the Albanians' strategy of non-aggression and the general boycott of Serbia, considering that the problem of Kosovo had been solved.  Because of all these years of denying reality and refusing to think about the state and the citizens whose president he is, the world cannot but condemn him now for not only the uncontrolled and brutal police ransoming, but also for the very phenomenon of terrorism.  Namely, he did absolutely nothing, he did not even make the smallest gesture for at least a segment of Kosovo’s Albanians to think, if only for a moment, that Serbia could actually be their state.  On the contrary, they have been expected for years to realize that it would be better for them to move elsewhere.  The state, especially a “legal state”, is only a tool for threatening and humiliating them.

Therefore, new sanctions are being implemented because the world understands that terrorism was preceded by state aggression, and that new, even greater aggression is the only answer Serbia has to offer.  Hence the demand for immediately opening dialogue and for seeking political solutions.  The world believes that terrorism can be curbed and isolated only if people get a chance to choose other methods beside aggression.  However, this also means giving up on the final objective, full independence, to which, among Kosovo’s Albanians, it is believed that complete unanimity exists.  Serbs are again virtually unanimous about not making any concession on Kosovo.

The situation appears hopeless, a little like the conflict between the Jews and Palestinians, but maybe it is not quite so.  The operations of OVK and its position among Albanians really does appear similar to what Arafat’s PLO once used to be among Palestinians, where it was most often treated as a terrorist organization.  But some terrorist or semi-terrorist organizations can develop, under favorable conditions, into successful guerrilla armies.  As far as OVK is concerned, the opening up of the Serbian-Albanian dialogue represents a far greater threat for it than any police actions.

This dialogue must contribute to fencing off and isolating the influence of Milosevic, who weighs as much as an entire terrorist organization.  By now it should be quite apparent that we are dealing with an incorrigible repeat offender, a recidivist, and I am really interested in how he will get out of this one — namely, how he will be dealt with.  Will Felipe Gonzales or some other authorized arbiter demand that he himself negotiate and sign Kosovo’s autonomy?  And then to once again loosen sanctions, waiting for another occasion to repeat the whole process.

It is not very difficult to write pages upon pages of the gloomiest predictions regarding Kosovo.  Perhaps that is why I am attracted by other, better options, and I believe that there is at least one important condition for this.  Namely, there is a very high degree of international concern and feeling for Kosovo’s great, hidden destructive potential, which is why it is approached with nearly the same delicacy as the issue of nuclear proliferation.  This should be enough to force open a dialogue, which the Government of Serbia immediately offered, and Rugova accepted in principle.

This could now move even faster than anyone expected.  It seems that the threat of sanctions left an impression on Belgrade, and there must also exist a way of influencing the Albanians.  It is certainly in Rugova’s interest to remain the uncontested leader and to halt the growth in OVK’s popularity, for which there is little time remaining.  And when the biggest political resistance brakes down, defining the autonomous functions of Kosovo will be merely logistical.  Such solutions, in any case, have many prior examples behind them.

But can anyone here even imagine life without such an ax above our heads?