A Right Turn

The Serbian Prime Minister designate, Mirko Marjanovic, sent a letter on Tuesday, March 18th to chairman of the Serbian Assembly Dragan Tomic, informing him that the concept for the creation of a government based on national unity has been completed. According to Marjanovic and his letter, the parties represented in parliament said they were ready to take part in the new government. He also expressed his own good will to come forward with the new government's platform and composition. Tomic called an Assembly session for next Tuesday, but Marjanovic's statement and those released by some political parties reveal that the composition of the new government is not a formality. There is a difference between "expressing readiness' to form a government and forming one. It also remains to be seen how the Contact Group session in Bonn on March 25th will affect the constitution of the new government, as it is still uncertain whether fresh sanctions will be imposed against Yugoslavia or not. Mirko Marjanovic had talks with Gorica Gajevic and Milomir Minic of the ruling Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS), Vojislav Mihajlovic of the Serbian Renewal Movement (SPO), Vojislav Seselj of the Serbian Radical Party (SRS), Ljubisa Ristic of the Yugoslav Left Wing Alliance (JUL), Zarko Jokanovic of Nova Demokratija (ND) and Istvan Istvanovic of the Vojvodina Hungarians' Alliance (SVM).

The number one partner: Vojislav Seselj confirmed on Studio B television that the consultations on forming a national unity government had entered a final stage and that the SRS was prepared to join a government including the SPS, the SPO and the JUL. Seselj went on to say that no deals have yet been made, and that talks could continue only if one of the three major prerequisites were met. Seselj's three prerequisites are a national unity government represented by all parties in parliament on a proportional basis, a new Prime Minister or fresh elections. He reiterated he wouldn't lend support to a minority government made of left-wing parties. Seselj also called Vuk Draskovic a wayward and highly unpredictable politician, accusing him of breaking a deal on the new government only 24 hours after signing it.

No deal: When he was asked whether the Serbian Renewal Movement would be part of the new government, Vuk Draskovic said: "Yes, if we strike a deal. But we haven't struck one yet". Some of the things he said indicate the deal went bad and that the ruling socialists opted for a coalition with the radicals. An SPO spokesman, Vojislav Mihajlovic, said the party wasn't happy with the offer. According to him, the SPO expect the Prime Minister designate to come up with a new offer.

Well-informed sources say the SPO was offered a third of all ministerial posts, two ministerial posts without portfolio, two vice-presidential posts and presidency over the Serbian television's board of directors. Government circles say Marjanovic was also prepared to accept a new Serbian national anthem, a double-headed white eagle as the new national emblem and the SPO declaration on national reconciliation.

The fall in Vuk Draskovic's rating and credibility in the talks reflect a turn to the right in his policy. During the negotiations on a platform for the national unity government, Draskovic came up with a draft document on Kosovo envisaging wide autonomy for the ethnic Albanians and assemblies with two chambers in all areas with a mixed ethnic structure. The document, however, also insists on Serbia's integrity and its right to preserve peace and order. Draskovic did not take part in the hasty and insincere attempt of the outgoing Serbian government to hold talks with ethnic Albanian representatives. He said a uniform platform on the Kosovo issue should be adopted and put forward the idea that talks on the matter be initiated by Serbian president Milan Milutinovic.

The line of difference: Draskovic said he saw no reason why former Spanish Prime Minister Felipe Gonzales shouldn't mediate talks between the Serbs and the ethnic Albanians. He was probably guided by the  assumption that Gonzales won't ask the Serbs to give more autonomy to the Albanians than Spain is prepared to give the Basks or the Catalans. Seselj sent his deputy Toma Nikolic to Pristina for talks with ethnic Albanians that never took place, but the SRS demanded that the Serbian government turn down any foreign involvement in the conflict. The demand was in full accord with what Serbian state officials were saying and it was probably the essential line of understanding between Seselj and the authorities. The results of the most recent elections in Serbia opened up the possibility of a right-wing coalition, especially in view of the fact that Milosevic seems to be more powerful than ever. His systematic destruction of all moderate parties which "understand the European language" clearly shows that he doesn't want flexible partners. Even the Belgrade pacifists played into his hands by starting their own little wars after the disintegration of the Zajedno coalition. In the past few months, they let Seselj off the hook and gave Draskovic a hard time for trying to make a deal with the government.

A state reason: Although Nova Demokratija said that both Draskovic and the left coalition were still willing to talk to them, it seems that history is about to repeat itself. Just like in May 1992, the socialists and the radicals are moving closer to each other. Six years ago they did it because national interests were at stake, whereas a state issue is the reason now. Seselj's drift towards the regime is directly connected to the international pressure brought to bear on Serbia and Yugoslavia because of the Kosovo crisis. A coalition between Seselj and the ruling socialists was announced when Russian foreign minister Yevgeny Primakov visited Belgrade. Primakov officially expressed support for resolving the Kosovo crisis through peace talks with full respect for Serbia's territorial integrity, but some sources say he tried to persuade the Serbs to accept Felipe Gonzales as the international mediator. The sources also said that Primakov had previously warned Yugoslav officials that the international community would impose fresh sanctions against Yugoslavia if Milosevic keeps refusing to pull his police troops out of Kosovo.

While the Yugoslav authorities are going on about state integrity and turning town the internationalization of the Kosovo issue, foreign powers are demanding that police troops be pulled out of Kosovo. According to the latest news, tension has not quite been lifted. A policeman was wounded in the town of Pec, while ten masked members of the Kosovo Liberation Army (UCK) assaulted a Serb civilian in Drenica. Ethnic Albanian protesters used stones and firearms at rallies in Klina, Kosovska Mitrovica and Gnjilane, while an ethnic Albanian died in a riot in Pec. In other words, Serbian president Milan Milutinovic will have a hard time dealing with the ultimatum given to Milosevic, more precisely pulling the troops out of Kosovo before the deadline. The Belgrade daily Nasa Borba, the Financial Times and Radio Free Europe say the Yugoslav government has started preparing for possible sanctions by ordering commercial banks to get money on foreign accounts back into the country.

All this is a strong indication that the Yugoslav president, Slobodan Milosevic, is about to defy the Kosovo ultimatum set by the United States and the Contact Group. In that case, Serbia would be hit hard by sanctions while Montenegro would only get the impression that it has been partially spared. Such a course of events should lead to the conclusion that no matter what the outcome of the talks on the new government is, Vojislav Seselj will once again be Milosevic's major internal ally in his new wrestling match with the great powers.

The citizens have choice but watch helplessly and await the results of the regime's clumsy effort to pacify Kosovo, as well as pay the price of the Euro-American diplomatic initiative favoring the ethnic Albanians. The initiative has been qualified by the Belgrade regime as an attempt to break Serbia's unity and force changes in its constitution, but the ultimate price of the regime's probable choice to take an unyielding position will be paid by the population.

The population will only be able to watch the consequences of mixing national radicalism with separatist nationalism and pacifistic interventionism, the last of which some groups want and approve. Basic human rights are hard to protect in countries falling apart or believing they have been attacked, although humanitarian workers and police troops work harder than ever in such circumstances.