Elections in May

Montenegrin president Milo Djukanovic decided that Montenegro will once again hold elections, characterized as "historic," on May 31. The division of Montenegro is still facing yet one more test of strength.  On one hand is the option of President Djukanovic who promises victory and a resolution to open Montenegro to the world.  On the other hand is the group nominally lead by Momir Bulatovic who loudly announces a similar intention to win the elections, but also to keep FRY, organize a citizen's state, and to confront crime and separatism.
Momir Bulatovic's message was announced at the founding congress of his new party, the Socialist People's Party of Montenegro.  The audience at the Moraca Sports Center burst into applause and exclamations at the moment when the SPS General Secretary, Gorica Gajevic, presented Slobodan Milosevic's message, stressing his love for Montenegro.  Other than that, it was Momir Bulatovic that irresistibly appeared to be Slobodan Milosevic's real delegate at the congress.  In both Bulatovic's and Gorica Gajevic's appearance, no difference in attitude was noted as to the organization of a powerful FRY, Montenegro's equality in it, relations concerning the Kosovo question, and the collaborators and foreign agents in Montenegro who collaborate with world forces and "bow their heads to all that is ordered."  In every case, the new basis of the Socialist People's Party of Montenegro will be to exert every effort to return Slobodan Milosevic's influence in Montenegro.  The question is what party will help him by entering a Patriotic League coalition headed by Momir Bulatovic?

TWO BLOCS: In Parliamentary elections, Milo Djukanovic's reform bloc will certainly stand in opposition to Bulatovic's Patriotic League.  Although nothing has yet been done concerning the eventual forming of a large Reform Coalition, such a possibility lingers from the last election as one of the most rational solutions for safeguarding Montenegro's stability following the May election.  The ruling DPS characterizes itself as a party whose will depends on the existence of a coalition.  All leaders of the remaining signatory parties to the "Historical Agreement" publicly warned that there was still no offer from the DPS to form a constitutional coalition.  Additionally, they object that DPS does all it can to "suck up" further membership in the reformist block as well as spreading optimism that the party will take more than 50% of the electorate, which at this moment sounds considerably unrealistic.  In the meantime, DPS is evidently doing all it can to strengthen itself in order to ensure a more convenient piece of the coalition "pie".  For now, it looks as if such a calculation most irritates the Liberal Union of Montenegro.  The Liberals consider themselves the third strongest party in Montenegro, rating themselves around 15%.  According to their own judgment, they will be the party without which no one side will be able to form a government.

RULES OF THE GAME: On the other hand, some polls indicate that the Novak Kilibarda's People's Party, which persistently insists upon a coalition, stands weaker than before, which at first glance does not appear too reassuring.  With regard to a possible coalition, the Albanian parties have safeguarded mandates and are prepared for any agreement.  A considerable part of the Muslim electorate is stretched between SDA, DPS, the Liberals, and SDP.  Speakers for coalition-building state that a reform team would be able to add up to 70% of the votes.  There are, however, those who consider that each party should try by themselves, and only after that talk about a coalition.

Two opposition blocks will surely bring out new tensions.  For now, they have achieved full consensus concerning the rules of the game, but it remains to be seen how these rules will change.  All in all, no one is indifferent, because they know that in this case Slobodan Milosevic plays the decisive game in Montenegro.  The question as to who will remain in or be ejected from the game will be answered on May 31.  That fact warns all who are reform-oriented to play a winning, assertive combination in the presidential elections. Traditionally, official Montenegro never made two reasonable decisions in a row, but the ruling party has never fallen from power either. Nevertheless, there's always a first time.