Fading Serbia

Where the new Government of Serbia is concerned, I do not wish to split hairs.  A combination has been made which will escape disaster only through a miracle.  O.K., you will say, what did we have up to now?  Were we in paradise?  Well, that question is so good that I will leave it for the end.

First of all we must agree that the new government is a legitimate child, perhaps not a planned one, but it can hardly be said that it was born accidentally.  The relationship between Milosevic and Seselj has lasted for a long time and has undergone many delicate stages, but has never been broken off.  Their coalition government did come unannounced, but no one has a right to be completely surprised.

Negotiations with Draskovic must have been extremely difficult, complicated and tiring, so that Milosevic finally concluded that he is simply not in tune with reality.  I believe that Milosevic felt a sense of relief when he got back to Seselj with whom he instantly struck up an agreement.  Everything in this triangle, which had intrigued our public for months, happened according to some higher, heavenly principle and justice.  Draskovic fell out and lost what he deserved.  Seselj waited for his opportunity and took power, also in a way he deserved.  And Milosevic himself will certainly get what he deserves, even though I fear it will be less than what he really deserves.

It is probably true that Draskovic was too proud and convinced that his worth is such that no price is too high.  He haggled badly, undermining his opponent, at the same time, not even acknowledging that negotiation over price was at all at issue.  It seems to me that he simply never learned some basic political techniques.  He is not a difficult negotiator, but an impossible one who wants to do business while giving lectures.  Someone is probably expected to slip some reward discretely into his pocket, and if he is not satisfied with it, he will merely raise the moral tone of his discourse.  Had they entered the government, neither he nor his party would have been in a position to really take Serbia forward.  They no longer had the revolutionary motive which had inspired them for so long, nor did they have enough ability or strength, while at present, Serbia is in dire need of all that.  SPO would merely represent a small hurdle on a big downward slope, which is not without any significance.  But, if we are impatient to go uphill, than it might be best for someone to push the gas pedal, and then come what may.  An added problem with Draskovic is that he did not give up on a big role by accepting to play a small one.  He wanted to remain “leader and teacher”, while haggling over the number of mandates and various other gains.

Seselj deserved power because he stood at the right place and Serbia came to him.  He knew where to stand.  Everyone else picked a place to their liking, while he watched where Milosevic was going and stood waiting where he was bound to come.  Milosevic simply could no longer go around him, could not ignore him nor continue without him.  According to all indications, he looks like a true ringleader of a far gone, crazed, petrified and desperate crowd, which is what he found he was waiting for.

I do not want to say that a real transfer of power has been accomplished in Serbia, nor that Milosevic is ready for something like that, but the new government is certainly a big, irreversible step in that direction, a bigger one than Milosevic thinks.  Even premier Marjanovic and everyone else in the regime realizes that it is they who came to Seselj to ask for help.  Could they have continued without him, they would have done just as they had up to now, which means that the Radicals are entering the Government with a certain psychological advantage, while Seselj is in any case capable of imposing himself on Marjanovic and other similar slothful, spent officials of the older generation.

It is not outside the realm of possibility that Milosevic from the very beginning negotiated with Draskovic on false pretenses, without any intention of actually making a coalition with him, but with the idea of finally taking his revenge against and ousting this man who still reminds him of the disgusting winter protests.  On the other hand, Seselj probably appears useful to him in more way than one.  Who is more capable than him of striking fear into Albanians?  He can also try with Montenegro, if Momir Bulatovic should need help, and that he will.  Seselj can also come in useful in negotiations with Americans, and generally in dealings with the outside world - as a scarecrow, of course.  Finally, should it be necessary to make concessions, is it not best for that biggest of Serbs to brake the bad news to Serbians?

In this, Milosevic is depending equally on the Duke’s nature as well as on his loyalty, which was proven more than once.  As far as his nature is concerned, he is correct in this.  Seselj has chosen his extreme right position with his whole personality, and in this he looks like so many other extremists.  In principle, he is a man of war, and at the very least a lover of martial law, of martial courts, of prohibitions, arrests and every type of aggression.  He will always present this as a way of establishing law and order, in which his is merely attracted by the very act of establishing order, and not by order itself.

People of this sort most often ware some kind of uniform, and if they find themselves in politics, they always stick out with pronounced brutality and unsightliness, which they have a hard time hiding and containing.  Besides that, their strategic thought is always unusual and unrealistic.  Seselj, who manages perfectly well in the political arena, is at the same time a supporter of a silly theory of Serbia’s future which is based on the victory of “patriotic forces” in Russia.  Therefore, in the best situation, Serbia would be a distant colony of imperial Russia that is lost in Europe, which luckily will never happen.

But such as he is, Seselj appears to Milosevic as the perfect person for taking over all of his unfinished business, be it to forge ahead or to rescue, to destroy or to organize, whichever way it comes.  Well, I think that things won't go quite as planned.  Regarding Kosovo, for instance, Seselj could first of all behave the way he did regarding the war in Bosnia.  In words and before cameras, aggressive and extreme, but in reality very cautious, very careful to not take personal responsibility for such a horrible situation.
On the other hand, he will grab power tirelessly because, as Milosevic’s best student, he knows that national tragedies serve only that purpose.  May no one be surprised if Seselj turns out completely indifferent to the fate of Kosovo, just the way Milosevic did with regard to Krajina.  Perhaps in the new Government he will ask to be in charge of Kosovo personally, realizing that in this way power can be gained most quickly, with the problem being hopeless in any case, and he offering to make it more so.

If he is unable to contain his nature, Seselj certainly knows well where and when he can let loose.  Probably it will turn out that there is nothing much to be done in Kosovo, because far greater powers are far too close and are following carefully what is happening.  Seselj is one of those knights who does not avoid the opportunity of making threats with his raised fists, from a safe distance.  But then he will turn to Serbia and Belgrade, and only then really try to demonstrate real authority and power.

However, as you must have noticed, we had little luck in this regard up to now.  Does this mean that there is no special reason for getting excited about Seselj’s taking front stage?  The answer depends on the height from which you look upon your surroundings and your own life.  Real, great differences can hardly exist on either side, while there will certainly be many small ones, ones everyone sees from up close.  For instance, by contrast with Milosevic, Seselj and his long-winded Radicals will never get off the TV.
If he assesses the development of the situation correctly and does not rush, Seselj will continue to grow and will one day go after Milosevic himself.  This relatively popular prediction will materialize, or not, but it is certainly based on a correct assessment of the state of democratic institutions, political manners and practices in Serbia, which is on the wane.  Power has been too naked for too long here.  Who uses it against whom is of little consequence, but it would be far more important for someone to come up with another method.