Shadow of Kosovo

Last weekend in Macedonia two political earthquakes were being expected with great attention.  On the first day of spring, Vasil Tupurkovski, the last representative of Macedonia in the Presidency of former SFRY, a politician who in recent years decided on self-imposed exile from politics, founded his own party (the Democratic Alternative).  The other political earthquake was expected the day after, on Sunday, when Mayor Gostivara Rufi Osmani was supposed to begin serving his prison sentence lasting seven years.  Osmani was sentenced for causing unrest last summer in Gostivar when, in a clash between police and the local population, because of the taking down of an Albanian flag from the center of town, four people got killed.  At first, the court sentenced Osmani to 12 years, with the sentence later being reduced to seven.  Several days before Osmani was supposed to finally go to prison, in Gostivar and other cities of western Macedonia where the Democratic Party of Albanians is in power, disturbances were expected.  The Vice-President of this Party, Ilijas Halimi, stated for Dnevnik of Skopije that he is not ruling out “spontaneous protests” which could grow “into something which could not be controlled”.  In the meantime, Osmani got sick and did not go to jail, so that the appointed “spontaneous protests” fell through.

NO DEALS:  On the same weekend that protests of a political nature were being announced in Macedonia, President Kiro Gligorov appeared in Ohrid where he participated in an international conference for cooperation in the Balkans.  In addressing the participants of this conference, Gligorov stated that Skopije will not make any deals with Belgrade against Albanians.  The President of Macedonia actually reacted to some opinions expressed in this gathering according to which Belgrade and Skopije might, despite tensions and strained personal relations, be “drawn into a Slavic alliance against Albanians” at a moment when “Albanian-Slavic tensions are becoming acute”.

Those who interpret every move by the present Macedonian government exclusively as proof of Washington’s orders to Skopije claim that in Ohrid, Gligorov had only elaborated that which Straub Talbot, US Deputy State Secretary, stated several days earlier in Skopije.  Talbot held a lecture in the Macedonian Academy of Sciences (MANU) in which he called Macedonia “an oasis of peace” and stability in the Balkans.  According to the opinion of many, this once favorite construct of official Macedonian politics has begun to fade and to cause derision among the very citizens of this state.

Among those who attended Talbot’s lecture in MANU was the leader of DPA, Arben Dzaferi, a man whom many consider the most influential and most cardinal among Albanian politicians in Macedonia (his party has seven seats in the Macedonian parliament, as well as power won in recent local elections in virtually every city of western Macedonia).  Otherwise, this professor of philosophy from Tetovo (a University of Belgrade graduate belonging to the generation of '68) made sure to create the only “incident” during Talbot’s visit in Skopije.  After the lecture by the US Deputy State Secretary, Dzaferi at first tried to pose a question in Albanian, but there were no translators in the MANU auditorium at the moment.  After a short disturbance and protests from the audience, Dzaferi (who otherwise speaks English quite well) finally told Talbot in Macedonian that things are not quite so rosy in Macedonia as they seem to appear to Americans.  He illustrated this opinion by pointing to MANU in which, as he said, there is not a single Albanian.
“Albanians in Macedonia are ghettoized and marginalized”, claimed Arben Dzaferi the next day in his interview for VREME.  “That is why I orchestrated this minor scandal in MANU, in which there really is not a single Albanian.  When you go through cities in Macedonia, it is apparent that there are many Albanians in the streets.  But we cannot be found in the institutions of this state.  I cannot deny this reality in order to agree with a foreign politician who spent several hours here and says - this is how I see things.  Albanians make up a third of the population of Macedonia, while in public life they only receive 1/30 representation,” states Arben Dzaferi.

Ph.D. Djordji Marjanovic, Professor at the Law Faculty of the University of Skopije, thinks that Dzaferi and other political representatives of Albanians in Macedonia are completely misrepresenting the representation of their fellow Albanians in state institutions.  Speaking for VREME, this prominent Professor from Skopije, who is occasionally politically engaged, states that they behave in the old communist fashion, demanding the return of old nationalist keys and quotas.  Ph.D. Marjanovic claims that among Albanians themselves, there was earlier a conviction that state jobs are only held by “fools” because they do not pay well.

All these conflicts and discussions were only triggered by Talbot’s arrival in Skopje, while the real causes are incomparably deeper and more serious.  Macedonian-Albanian relations have been slipping toward radicalization for months now, while recent events in Kosovo have only once again reopened old dilemmas.  Regardless of whether they support the present government, all parties which attract Albanians in Macedonia have more or less the same attitude - that the Macedonian Constitution is unjust and that it should be changed so that Albanians get, instead of the status of an national minority, the status of a constitutional people, just like Macedonians.

As the principal supporter of changes to the Macedonian Constitution, Arben Dzaferi points out that both in Macedonia and Serbia there are similar processes taking place today.  Both Milosevic and Gligorov, he claims, are trying to make a single nationality state on multiethnic territory, which can be very dangerous and of necessity leads to conflicts.  In this way, he states, colonial relations are established in which one nation is dominant over others which are in an inferior position.  To the question of why Albanians in Kosovo and Macedonia react differently, that is, why do the ones in Serbia boycott all institutions of the system, including participation in elections, while the ones in Macedonia participate in a coalition government, Arben Dzaferi answers: “Albanians in Kosovo desire their own independent state.  They were once a constitutional element of the former Yugoslav state which disintegrated.  International factors give them the right to seek for what they once had, but they also tell them that they must go a step at a time in their political demands, even though they demand independence, and all at once.  We Albanians in Macedonia are more represented in the population makeup than Albanians in FRY.  We are not demanding an independent state and we accept to go one step at a time with our political demands.  And we are not getting anything, just like Albanians in Kosovo.  That is why it sometimes appears to me that Albanians in these territories function like a control group in an experiment.  We are not getting anything, neither the ones who are asking for everything all at once, nor the ones who are going one step at a time,” states Dzaferi.

Among Macedonian politicians, especially those from opposition ranks, there is a growing conviction that Albanians in Macedonia will very quickly give up the strategy of “one step at a time” and will begin forming parallel institutions to the system, similar to the ones in Kosovo.  The majority of Macedonian politicians (except for those in power) recently condemned the solidarity meetings which were organized by DPA and PDP as a sign of solidarity with Kosovo’s fellow Albanians.  For those meetings, particularly the one in Skopije, it was said that they were held “in a format more appropriate for Tirana”.  Some politicians characterized this meeting as blatant meddling into domestic problems of FRY.  In VMRO-DPMNE it is believed that similar meddling is represented by the statement of President Koro Gligorov that in the event of war breaking out in Kosovo, Macedonia will open a humanitarian corridor across which Albanians will be able to flee from the area of war conflicts.  Ph.D. Dimitar Dimitrov, Vice-President of the strongest opposition party, VMRO-DPMNE, states that the story about a corridor is sheer nonsense: “Last year, when conflicts broke out in Albania, a high number of Albanians tried to leave that country at all cost.  Today, Albanians live the best in Macedonia, next best in Kosovo, and certainly worst in Albania.  In the event of the opening up of a corridor, they will certainly not flee to Albania, but will try to stay in Macedonia.”

IF THERE IS WAR: About what would happen in the event of open conflict in Kosovo, the leader of DPA, Arben Dzaferi, voiced his thoughts in his interview with VREME.  He points out that the dissatisfaction of Albanians in Macedonia is becoming more pronounced after events in Drenica.  To the direct question - what if a conflict of greater proportions brakes out in Kosovo - Dzaferi answered even more directly: “We are talking about a hypothetical situation: what if.  If war breaks out in Kosovo, all Serbs will rush there - the ones from Vojvodina, as well as from Bosnia and from Montenegro.  Albanians will do the same.  We from Macedonia before all others.  Albanians from Kosovo are our fellow countrymen, we lived together for 80 years, and now with the breakup of Yugoslavia a border has been erected between us as a kind of new phenomenon.  Our mentality is identical and that is why it is logical to expect us to stick together in the event of war.  Personally I see three stages in our joining in in that possible conflict.  The first is political and comes down to our support of our brethren in Kosovo through protests, meetings, expressions of solidarity, but also through diplomatic contacts.  This stage has begun a long time ago.  The second stage consists of humanitarian, economic and financial help, and it has also begun.  The third stage will begin in the event that dialogue is not initiated in Kosovo, that is in the event that military actions begin there.  That is when direct participation of Albanians from Macedonia will begin”, states Arben Dzaferi.

Otherwise, Macedonia is expecting elections in October of this year, and their outcome is far more difficult to predict than ever before.  Dzaferi’s radical DPA has serious chances of driving out from the Albanian part of the political scene the more powerful PDP, which is also the coalition partner with the ruling Branko Crvenkovski’s Social Democrats.  With the disintegration of this coalition, probably the entire philosophy on which the present government and President Gligorov built the image of Macedonia as “an oasis of peace and stability in the Balkans” would also come down.  Among opposition parties, it appears that actions by Ljupce Georgijevski’s VMRO, which stands behind firm and uncompromising attitudes toward Albanians, are once again on the rise.  In Skopje these days, there are many people who, once they hear that you come from Belgrade, will “give you credit” for the police action in Drenica and who claim that Milosevic appears to be “the only one who knows how to deal with them, with Albanians”.  Several days ago, when the deadline for going to prison was nearing for the Mayor of Gostivar and while people were fearing possible disturbances throughout western Macedonia, one of the local interpreters of Macedonian political developments described thus what will happen in the several months to come: “If Rufi Osmani does not go to prison, the government will fall and the elections will certainly be won by VMRO.  If they send him to jail and show that there is a legal state here, the Social Democrats will stand a chance of keeping power.”

Regardless of the widespread acceptance of such political assessments, the present Macedonian government is certainly not facing an easy situation.  For months now it has been walking a tightrope without a safety net beneath.  Last year, when the police reacted sharply in Gostivar, and, at the cost of human life, decided to take down the Albanian flag in the center of town, the EU decided not to give Macedonia promised financial aid and took it off the list of privileged countries.  In the meantime, the economic situation has significantly worsened, the Mayor of Gostivar should be heading to jail soon, and Albanians who elected him claim that “spontaneous protests” are possible.  And elections are on their way.

Liberation Army of Kosovo (UCK)

Recently in an interview for a Greek paper, Arben Dzaferi claimed that, for now, UCK exists on the level of small groups of soldiers, but that should a need arise, it could easily grow into a real army of around 100,000 soldiers.  To the question of whether UCK is actually active in Macedonia, he answered: “UCK is more active militarily in Kosovo, while in Macedonia it is at the stage of logistics and eventual preparations for the future”