Rubber Spine

Ever since he became the Serbian vice-premier, Vojislav Seselj, the leader of the Serbian Radical Party (SRS), has been leaving the impression of a child writing a letter to Santa Claus, full of fear that he might write a letter down wrong in doing so. Seselj reminds us of a child afraid that he might mess things up or write something that his idol wouldn't like.

Seselj's Santa Claus resides in Dedinje. His name is Slobodan Milosevic, he sees and hears everything. In order to stay on good terms with him, the leader of Serbia's radicals suddenly started to mind his language more than ever. He no longer criticizes everything he isn't happy about and he doesn't lecture his political adversaries like he so often used to. In his first interview after becoming vice-premier, Seselj didn't say a single word about the Serbian president, Milan Milutinovic, much less did he dwell on his previous statement that he would never accept Milutinovic as president and would disobey his decisions at all times.

THE BAN: At a regular SRS press conference a day or two later, Seselj instructed the new information minister, Aleksandar Vucic, not to comment on Mirjana Markovic's latest statements to the effect that she will deal with all her political adversaries. "You should ask the JUL board for all information, Vucic has nothing to say", Seselj told reporters. In 1993, Seselj predicted that Slobodan Milosevic and his wife would have to take refuge in Cyprus to avoid the fate that befell the Ceausescu couple. In all honesty, Mirjana Markovic said at the time that Seselj "personifies the fascist-oriented right wing, always in conflict with the genuine leftists". The two sides seem to have come to terms in the meantime as they joined forces to form a coalition government. A few days after Markovic identified almost every other pedestrian as a threat to national security, the radicals offered another one of their theories on "media in the treason business".

However, most observers do not take too seriously Seselj's new image of a lamb, nor do they believe that he will remain the vice-president for much longer. Most of them put Seselj's rapid rise to his obvious political talent and the ability to pave his way to power always choosing the safest methods. Hence a vast majority of political observers in Serbia believe that he will revert to his familiar language when the time comes. That time will come when Seselj starts feeling that he no longer needs to be in the SPS-Jul choir, when he assesses that it is time to move on.

All eminent political observers have spent the last few days analyzing how long the new Serbian government can last, which of the two coalition partners will turn against the other first and who will pull the shorter straw in a possible showdown between Seselj and Milosevic. No one seems to believe that the new government will last very long, but opinions differ as to who will strike first. Not a single observer believes that the new government's life depends on its ability to resolve social problems, as "ability" is a term quite incompatible with Mirko Marjanovic's cabinet.

THE BAIT: Dusan Mihajlovic, the leader of New Democracy, is among the few people believing that Milosevic has fooled Seselj. "Seselj has gone for the bait and Milosevic got the job done. Seselj is no longer a partner, much the same as Milutinovic, he is now an associate of Mirko Marjanovic", Mihajlovic said a few days ago. He believes that Milosevic outplayed Seselj and his entire leadership by placing them under the command of Prime Minister Mirko Marjanovic. The money flow, the legislature and the judicial system are still completely controlled by the SPS and JUL, while the radicals have been given the ungrateful task of dealing with the Zastava car and weapons industries in Kragujevac. Mihajlovic says that even having the information ministry in their hands is quite meaningless for the radicals because it had no real power.

Unlike the New Democracy leader, Montenegrin Prime Minister Svetozar Marovic believes that Milosevic rather than Seselj got a raw deal. Marovic says that Milosevic has taken not one but a string of Seselj's baits. He believes that Seselj is the master of the new government and that he will decide how long it will last. "It is no longer an SPS government, it is now an SRS government. Seselj will try to blame the socialists for all its shortcomings and cover up the incompetence of his ministers by saying that the socialists are uncooperative. I wouldn't be surprised if the preparations for fresh parliamentary elections in Serbia started now. The date for these elections wouldn't be set by the Serbian government or the SPS as the dominant party, it would be set by Vojislav Seselj.

An eminent Serbian economist, Mladen Dinkic, says the SRS economic platform is far too liberal for the socialists' liking. He believes the two sides might part company because the socialists won't be able to keep up with Seselj's possible desire to encourage economic reforms. Provided that the Kosovo crisis resolves itself in such a way that economic reforms become an issue.

VISIBILITY: Many observers believe that one of the new government's shortcomings is the fact that the radicals have their first team in it (they hardly have a second team at all), while the left wing is represented by obsolete cadres who risk self-inflicted injury every time they speak in public. Dr. Vladimir Goati of the Belgrade Institute for Social Studies has listed a number of other factors that might affect the life span of the new Serbian government. Goati says that both partners could at some point decide that they are better off on their own, adding that there are at least two potential situations in which either side could walk out on the other. The first has to do with the international position of Serbia, which might become too burdensome for one the coalition partners. The other is the possibility that one of the partners will benefit more from the deal, which could put an end to the marriage of convenience.

"The biggest threat to the coalition comes from what is inside it, not from the weak and disjointed democratic opposition. The radicals have a great chance of becoming far more visible now that they are in the government, because they can now communicate with the silent voters using government-controlled electronic media. And win their support, of course," says Goati.

ANOTHER DAYTON: Srbobran Brankovic also believes that the new government will not last very long. He thinks Milosevic wants to use Seselj as a transitional step to an important political decision. To a Dayton accord on Kosovo for example, as some kind of accord will have to be made sooner or later. At that point it will become clear that Milosevic has made a coalition with the radicals in order to be able to make concessions in complete contrast with the logic of nationalist radicalism. According to Brankovic, Seselj also wants to disillusion anyone who still believes that Seselj belongs in the opposition. "The best way to discredit the radicals or any other party calling themselves opposition is to have them in a government with the SPS. Working with the SPS is like running in deep water", says Brankovic. According to a recently conducted opinion poll, almost one half of all the radical supporters said they would not vote for the SRS again if it entered a coalition with the socialists. Seselj could lose quite a lot while Milosevic will cross a critical bridge before striking some kind of deal on Kosovo. The radicals will be fully discredited and sidelined, while the socialists will make another offer to Vuk Draskovic or call fresh elections.

"All that can't last very long. The SPS and the SRS are almost identical parties whose trademarks are nationalism and demagogy as the opiate of the masses. The partnership will break open for the same reason former Yugoslavia did - its constituent elements were too alike", Brankovic says.

Dr. Slobodan Antonic, a sociologist, claims the new Serbian government was formed virtually five minutes before it was made public. He says Milosevic has once again shown that he is a good player for short-term goals. Milosevic's decision to make an offer to Seselj was a move few people expected. He lowered the price of Vuk Draskovic and showed that he can't be blackmailed, sending a clear message that he can always count on more than one "bride". Milosevic now has a double alibi in case something goes wrong in the Kosovo talks. He can always tell the international community that the other side is being uncooperative and persuade the Serbian audience that the other side is to blame if he is forced to make too many concessions in the southern Serbian province.

"I still get the impression that Milosevic is a bad player when it comes to long-term goals. I believe that Seselj will be able to mount a serious challenge for the post of Yugoslav president before Milosevic's present term runs out. The democratic opposition has broken into pieces, while Seselj is bigger and stronger than ever. He has grown bigger and stronger every time he has either come to or walked away from the socialists. In 1991, he was let into the parliament by the socialists as a public jester. He won 30 percent of the votes at the federal elections held a year later. The same year, he snatched away from the socialists a section of their voters and demonstrated how good he can be once he gets into the institutions. Now he is the vice-premier. You can imagine what will happen if Seselj gets enough air time. He lost the presidential elections to Milan Milutinovic because his rival had the upper hand in state-controlled media and institutions. If he improves his position in these strongholds of power, he will improve his chances of not getting ripped off again. Thinking long-term, inviting Seselj into the government was a very unwise move by Milosevic", Antonic says.

Antonic doesn't believe the SRS will lose too many voters for becoming partners with the socialists. He expects that Seselj will win over a number of SPS voters. "It is true that many SRS members are very radical and opposed to forming a coalition with the socialists. However, his easy victory over Vuk Draskovic has persuaded his followers even more that he knows exactly what he is doing all the time. It seems Seselj has realized that the only way to get rid of the communists is through their own institutions. His supporters believe his latest course of action is a swift maneuver and I don't think he will lose a lot of support. Draskovic would have lost a whole lot more because his followers have been fighting the regime in the streets for the last eight years", Antonic elaborates.

A former ranking SPS official, Borisav Jovic, made one of the most accurate predictions of what could happen between Milosevic and Seselj in the near future. He says the SPS-SRS coalition is an unprincipled and forced one. Draskovic didn't seem to know what he wanted, so the socialists picked Seselj in order to avoid fresh elections. Jovic says that all those who think national interests can bring the socialists and the radicals closer together are wrong, and thus suggests that neither side gives a toss about the national interest. "This government will last until the balance of power shifts in favor of either the socialists or the radicals. In the meantime, both sides will try to discredit each other as much as possible.  When judgment day comes, all the old animosities will come to the surface and new ones will appear. Both partners will label each other as the most bitter adversary and try to get rid of each other once and for all", he wrote for last weekend's issue of the Belgrade Dnevni Telegtraf.

It is hard to add anything to the words of a man who used to be a top-ranking SPS official at a time when the socialists and the radicals first fell in love with each other.