Fire and Smoke

The expectation of when Ph.D. Radovan Karadzic will show up before the Hague Tribunal - he is accused of genocide, war crimes and crimes against humanity - has reached unbearable proportions in the first half of April.  It began on January 29 with a statement by Carlos Westendorp, High Representative of the International Community in Bosnia and Herzegovina: "If Dodik's Government takes into its own hands the police of Republika Srpska (RS), and at the same time the cashflow from customs and taxes is cut off, I would not give Karadzic more than two months of freedom."  Westendorp was explicit on March 26.  He explained that the Government of Milorad Dodik has gotten on its feet, that is to say that the police as well as revenues from cigarettes, gasoline and alcohol are under its control, and that Ph.D. Karadzic will soon lose the support of the police because he will no longer be able to afford it.  "It is desirable that Karadzic hands himself over on his own to the Hague Tribunal, but if he does not do that, events are developing in a way that will make his arrest very simple," stated Westendorp, adding: "My feeling is that this could happen in one month's time."  When on April 2, five hundred Italian, German and French members of SFOR, with over eighty armed vehicles, blocked access to Pale, carrying out routine checks of local police, executing a search in "Famos", where Ph.D. Karadzic held his offices, and several transport vehicles spent some time in front of his home, the media exploded.

RUSSIA - BELORUSSIA:  At first in Western media, and then through echoes and reactions in our media, "exclusive" information and denouncements changed at the speed of light.  The former leader of Serbs and top star of the Hague Tribunal was in this way simultaneously in Pale, Russia, Belorussia and Zabljak, negotiating terms for handing himself over with the Americans and the Hague Tribunal, with Ph.D. Biljana Plavsic and Dodik, and with Slobodan Milosevic and Momcilo Krajisnik...  His house in Pale had become a singular cult place for journalists: few reports were without details about drawn curtains, a second floor under construction, about mysterious night lights...

State Department Spokesman, James Rubin, suggested that there is actually some fire behind all that smoke.  At a regular press conference, held on April 9, to the question whether Washington would accept certain concessions, in the event that this leads to the handing over of Karadzic, which he supposedly asked for (defense and serving of his sentence in one of the Orthodox Christian countries), he answered that the "USA is in principle ready to accept all decisions by the Tribunal" which "has demonstrated enormous flexibility up to now."  He added that "from time to time" there is news of Karadzic - Hague Tribunal negotiations.  The French daily newspaper Le Monde, in the same text in which the former leader of Bosnian Serbs is placed in Russia, cites that he has contacted "two American lawyers" concerning his handing over.  These legal representatives really do exist and are called Edward Medwyn and Thomas F. Hanly III.  Together with a lawyer from Belgrade, Igor Pantelic, and on the basis of a proxy given them by Karadzic, they attempted to participate in a discussion in the Summer of 1996 on the accusations of General Ratko Mladic and himself.  They were turned down with the explanation that their presence in the courtroom would result in a discussion and a case in absentia, which is not stipulated by the Tribunal's Statute.

Then Ljiljana Zelen Karadzic announced that not only will her husband not hand himself over, but that "no one will authorize anyone, that is, he will not allow anyone to defend him before the Tribunal..."  Along with this, a statement was made by the member of the Presidency of B&H, Momcilo Krajisnik, who in the manner of an experienced "councilor" had said that he does not know where Karadzic is, that he does not have any contact with him, but that he knows that citations "in certain media about his voluntary handing over are completely baseless."  This and a bit more was sufficient for James Rubin to be forced to "put his foot in his mouth" (April 13): "I must admit that stories about the handing over of Radovan Karadzic to the Hague Tribunal are mere rumor."  He arrived at this conclusion when he "contacted certain officials in the administration who are working on that case."

Anyway, the story of Karadzic's handing over or arrest does not stop here.  It is known that since the beginning of 1998, the authorities in Pale had permitted access to Tribunal investigators to documents of Republika Srpska agencies from 1992-1995, as well as footage of relevant Serbian Radio Television.  According to the Blic daily, representatives of the RS Government "have submitted to the Hague Tribunal Office documentation indicating their willingness to cooperate in every way with the Tribunal, including the condition that Radovan Karadzic would voluntarily hand himself over."

PRISONER:  As things stand, Karadzic's days of freedom are numbered.  If NATO in the supposed plan for arrest dubbed "Genitarius" calculated that besides a great involvement of personnel, armed vehicles and helicopters, SFOR losses would amount to between 20 to 40 soldiers, now it is considered that for something of that kind "two helicopters above his house and several tanks around it" would be sufficient for everything to pass without incident.  If it is so, the question is why has the inevitable not happened yet, because, from the entire international community, statements have not been lacking that Karadzic does not hope he will escape the Hague.  (By the way, the UN has approved budget increases for the Tribunal, so that now it amounts to 64 million dollars.)

Answers are in the area of speculations of high politics.  But, if statements by Bozidar Vucurevic, MP in the RS  Parliament and "Head" of Eastern Herzegovina, are anything to go by, it would be best for Karadzic to die and to thus unify all Serbs.  In this way, the former leader of Bosnian Serbs would not pull down anyone with his statements at the Tribunal - no one on either side of the River Drina.  There are suspicions, more or less justified, that SFOR is postponing the arrest, for different political reasons, so that one of his bodyguards does not make a "unifier" out of Karadzic with one touch of the trigger, which would free many of his associates and mentors from nervous tension.  Because of these same reasons - certain diplomatic sources indicate - so much confusion has been created around his handing over, for which real readiness exists.

The questions of why just now the Karadzic "case" had become the top story are unavoidable; that is to say, why is the military General Ratko Mladic being handled separately from the political leader of Bosnian Serbs?  This is all the more relevant since according to American questionnaires only six percent of the population of B&H consider the arrest of these two individuals a priority.

To the first question the answer could be both sought in the renewed sharpening of relations between Belgrade and the international community (Kosovo), as well as in attempts to finally disarm the Pale leadership, which is symbolized by Ph.D. Karadzic himself.  It is precisely in this that the office of the High Representative of B&H sees the key to the success of the upcoming September elections.

The other answer, why General Mladic is left unmolested, is interpreted with his considerably smaller influence than Karadzic's, especially as far as Belgrade's protection is concerned, but also by sheer pragmatism.  Taking in both of them at the same time would not be all that simple, and if their "cases" are separated, if Karadzic "brakes the ice", General Mladic's trip to the Hague could be somewhat simplified.

According to every "well informed source", the former president of RS is somewhere in eastern Bosnia.  He could not have left for anywhere, nor will anyone accept him.  Actually, while hiding in fear of arrest, Ph.D. Karadzic is convicted without a court or a sentence.
Whatever happens, handing over or arrest, it is merely a technical question.