Agony With No End in Sight

Only eight days after the Socialist People’s Party of the former president of Montenegro, Momir Bulatovic, initiated the replacement of the president of the federal government, not only has Radoje Kontic been replaced, but Momir Bulatovic has become the new federal premier.

By expressly promoting his Montenegrin errand boy to the position which nominally has the greatest authorization in the state, the president of Yugoslavia, Slobodan Milosevic, showed that he has no intention of waiting for the results of the May 31 parliamentary elections in Montenegro, in which victory (admittedly a close one) is expected by the reform forces of Milo Djukanovic, and permitting that victory to threaten his positions in the leadership of the federal government.

The manner of Kontic’s replacement has demonstrated that Milosevic is not changing his method of dealing with political competitors, which had been seen in the political elimination of Dobrica Cosic, Milan Panic and Dragoslav Avramovic.  It also demonstrates that he continues to consider the highest agents of state authority — the parliament and government of FRY — as mere instruments for insuring his seat of power.  However, the most serious consequence of Kontic’s replacement is that the constitutional equality of Montenegro has been flagrantly stepped upon, because the Parliament of that Republic had voiced its opposition to this move.  There is very small likelihood that this latest Yugoslavia will survive with such policies, and judging by all indications, the state is entering a period of agony with no end in sight, and with possible bloody developments.

2000 DAYS: Radoje Kontic is of the least consequence in all this.  Already for decades a lukewarm political personality and an eternal member of different governments in the former and present Yugoslavia (someone calculated that he spent 2000 days in the position of premier of FRY alone), he was accused in the Parliament of FRY, on May 18, of “holding back and now wishing to interfere” in the crisis in Montenegro — which means that he did not side with Bulatovic.  In his own defense, Kontic spoke at length about gasoline byproducts and monetary aggregates, and never summoned enough courage to say anything about the actual causes of the crisis in the Yugoslav federation and about the real reasons for his replacement.

Kontic is important as a symbol in this whole affair.  Largely thanks to him and the head of the Yugoslav Army’s Headquarters, Momcilo Perisic, in January of this year the army was not misused for preventing the inauguration of President Milo Djukanovic.  In the more recent past, he did not make an effort to submit the Radio Television Yugoslavia Project to the authority of the government, a project which was created by the Yugoslav Left Party of Milosevic’s wife for the purpose of waging an information war against Milo Djukanovic.  Milosevic assessed that the conflict with Djukanovic and Kontic can no longer continue.

The main job of Kontic’s replacement in the parliament of FRY was not accomplished by MP’s from the ranks of the Socialist People’s Party, which initiated the whole matter, but by prominent members of the Yugoslav Left and the Serbian Radical Party.  The former attacked Djukanovic, as they always do on every occasion, while the latter were entrusted with showing him that he will not be allowed to influence the government in the federal state just like that.

Montenegrin MP’s who represent the legitimate government in that republic were outvoted in the Assembly of Republics — an assembly which exists in order to insure the equality of two federal units which completely differ in geographical size.  (The Assembly of Republics is comprised of 20 MP’s from Serbia and Montenegro who are chosen by parliaments in the republics.  Prior to the session of federal parliament, the parliament of Montenegro recalled six of Bulatovic’s MP’s because they were not acting in accordance with decisions made by that parliament, but this was not acknowledged in the federal parliament, and these six MP’s continued to perform their functions just as if the parliament of Montenegro had not voiced its opinion.)

One day after the session of the federal parliament, the parliament of Montenegro decided that it would not acknowledge the unconstitutional decision by the Assembly of Republics on the replacement of Kontic, nor any other unconstitutional decisions it might make in the future.  Montenegro is not acknowledging the new premier, and with that also the new government.  The president of DPS, Milica Pejanovic-Djurisic, went to the president of FRY for consultations regarding the new nominee, stating afterwards that “Slobodan Milosevic did not have a single argument to prove that legal and political aggression was not performed in the parliament of FRY.”  No one from DPS went for consultations with the nominee, Momir Bulatovic, who has already become premier.

The two day procedure of naming the new government is so ridiculous that there is no sense in seriously considering the new federal government as a serious agency of state which is the most powerful state agency according to the constitution of FRY.  On Tuesday, May 19, within several hours, Milosevic had undertaken consultations with heads of parliamentary parties and MP groups, nominated the new premier, and the nominee also conducted the same consultations.  The session of the assembly of FRY, which otherwise meets every six months, was called for Wednesday, May 20 — two days after Kontic’s replacement — in order to vote on the new government and its political program.  The program of the government of a country which is in a deep economic and political crisis appears to have been written on the night between May 19 and 20.  And all this dejavu with the highest institutions of state is happening, among other things, so that Slobodan Milosevic could now offer clear support to his man of confidence in Montenegro to whose campaign he did not offer open support prior to the presidential elections in Montenegro last year.  This man of confidence bragged on a TV program about how at the palace of the federation he waited in line for nearly an hour just to shake Milosevic’s hand and to congratulate to him the on Day of the State of FRY.
It is interesting that Milosevic decided on this step despite the fact that public opinion polls in Montenegro indicate that Bulatovic had not lost too many supporters even though he no longer holds any state office.  It is a big question to what extent the swift transfer of Bulatovic to the position of premier can change the balance of forces in Montenegro ten days before parliamentary elections, because the electorate in that republic is already firmly divided between Bulatovic’s and Djukanovic’s political options and it is not likely that anything could sway them greatly.  And it is certain that Milosevic will hardly look very powerful if Djukanovic’s side wins in the elections, even though he indicated “his support” for Bulatovic in this way.  That is why, by way of prevention, Ivica Dacic stated in parliament that “SPS is not greatly interested in who comes to power in Montenegro, but rather the relationship of Montenegro to the joint state” — as if it is possible to disassociate those two things.  All in all, Milosevic is most interested in limiting Djukanovic’s influence on the federal government, which the president of Montenegro openly indicated he wishes to do, going as far as wanting to raise there the question of Milosevic’s governing abilities.

TRIAL: What Milosevic quite certainly managed to accomplish with Kontic’s replacement is a drastic worsening of otherwise very bad relations within the federation.  On May 18, in the village of Ubli, in the Kuc Region, Milo Djukanovic assessed that the instigators and actors behind the replacement of the federal government want to “negate Montenegrin integrity and the equality of Montenegro in Yugoslavia.”  “They wish to destroy Yugoslavia and to cause a conflict in Montenegro...  The formula behind the formation, survival and progress of our community is equality between the two republics.  If there is no equality, it is clear that there is no joint state,” stated the president of Montenegro.
A joint state will most probably continue to be, at least on paper.  Montenegro with Djukanovic at its head will acknowledge and respect less and less the federal state, and Milosevic will continue — as Djukanovic assessed — to put Montenegro on trial to see “whether it can endure his daily ignoring of the constitutional system of Yugoslavia, and therefore Montenegrin rights in the joint state, or we will finally give him proof, at a moment of utter impatience, for his claims about how Montenegro is destroying Yugoslavia.”
Judging from all accounts, Milosevic really is waiting for an open separatist action by the government of Montenegro — which has not been forthcoming.  Until now, Djukanovic has demonstrated good self-composure and consideration in his statements and political moves — which could not be said for all of his associates.  In the coming days and weeks, Milosevic will continue to increase the pressure, while pressures will increase the possibility of “utter impatience”.  And “utter impatience” in the explosive situation which now exists in Montenegro can easily change into violence, and violence can lead to even bigger violence.

However, it is not highly likely that Montenegro could separate form Yugoslavia in the near future, and it could certainly not separate calmly and peacefully.  First of all, Montenegro is divided — results of the presidential elections indicate that nearly half of that republic supports Momir Bulatovic’s formula “Yugoslavia without alternatives.”  This balance of power has not changed drastically, and therefore there is no consensus, and that is one of the many important reasons behind the difference between, let us say, Slovenia when it departed from SFRY and the present Montenegro.  Furthermore, Slovenia had outside support for breaking off, while Montenegro, for the time being, at least as far as is known, does not have that.  It is possible that the situation could change in the event of armed intervention against Djukanovic, coming from Belgrade, but this must also be clear to Milosevic.  On the other hand, it is a big question to what extent Milosevic haggled with the trump card of Montenegro when he negotiated with Gellbard and Holbrook about a meeting with Ibrahim Rugova, and how much he will continue to haggle when the status of Kosovo comes up for consideration.  The USA and the West are now more interested in stopping further spreading of the conflict in Kosovo than they are in supporting Djukanovic’s reform option, especially if that support would mean something more than financial help and reception at the highest levels in world capitols.

In this game of nerves, Milosevic is more experienced, but the future is not on his side.  However, it is ever more certain that the future is also not on the side of Yugoslavia.