Heads or Tails

On Wednesday, May 20, no one in Pristina knew whether the Serb-Albanian dialogue set for Friday would actually go ahead. The main obstacle to the meeting of the two working groups was an economic blockade of Kosovo imposed by Milosevic, as well as a few administrative problems. The sides involved waited impatiently for Richard Hill, officially the U.S. ambassador in Macedonia and unofficially Richard Holbrook's right hand, to return from Belgrade with the latest position of the Serbian side. Hill stayed in the region after Holbrook's departure to make sure that the peace process doesn't fall apart as soon as Holbrook and Gelbard turned around.

The other problem came up within the ethnic Albanian negotiating team. Two major players, Hidayet Hisseni and Bujar Dugoli, the leader of the ethnic Albanian student' independent union, left the team shortly before Milosevic's first meeting with Rugova. Although many other members of the team also think that Rugova gave in when he agreed that the talks could go ahead with no direct foreign mediation, there is no room for fear yet that the team might fall apart. "In fact, things are a lot easier since Hisseni and Dugoli left because they always had objections and created a lot of unnecessary tension", said one of the G-15 team members who wished to stay anonymous for obvious reasons.
Another source, however, says the talks are bound to fail unless Milosevic makes a few concessions in the near future. "I do not understand why this man has a persistent need to open new battlefronts all the time. He has imposed economic sanctions on Kosovo, taken apart the Belgrade University, started a crisis in Montenegro...all at the same time. We are now debating why isn't there any milk and oil in the shops, whereas we should be discussing ways to stop the fighting. If this continues I will get up and go home, but other people will get up and go to the woods", the source said.

Still, there is reason for cautious optimism. The meeting between Milosevic and Rugova on May 15 might not have brought significant improvements on the ground, but at least things didn't get worse. The Kosovo Liberation Army (UCK) still opens fire at the police and army here and there, but the UCK's headquarters did not issue an expected statement declaring Rugova a traitor. Reporters who spoke to UCK in the past three days or so say the UCK members are aware that they too are between a rock and a hard place. "The Serbian police and army are not capable of crushing the UCK with one decisive blow, but the UCK, on the other hand, can't launch an offensive either. That's why most people want to see if the talks will bear fruit, for it's never too late for war if they don't", a well-informed source said.

Rugova probably came out of the talks with Milosevic stronger than he was before they started. Even Bujar Bukosi, the "Prime Minister of Kosovo's exiled government" who criticized Rugova's "soft approach" a number of times, restrained from condemning Rugova and basically supported the peace process. "Rugova's position is essentially safe as long as he keeps demanding independence for Kosovo. The real problems are expected with a debate on the crux of the problem - Kosovo's status. That question, however, hasn't even been chunked yet", a western diplomat told Vreme.

In Pristina, most common people are torn by anxiety hanging between fear that any isolated incident might trigger a full-scale conflict and expectation that the talks bear fruit. Tension has eased in the cities to a certain extent, although caution is still vivid and the streets are empty with the first sign of darkness. Slogans written in Pristina's main street reflect the mood of the ethnic Albanians. You can still see "peace, freedom and independence" written in English and Albanian, and "Uprising, Freedom, UCK" written in Albanian only. At a recent rally in Pristina, the ethnic Albanian crowd chanted both "long live Rugova" and "long live the UCK", as the protectors were apparently unaware that Rugova and the UCK disagree on the methods of achieving a common objective.

In fact, what we have is two sides of one coin. Ibrahim Rugova, an intellectual who claims that Mahatma Gandhi is his idol, is the face the ethnic Albanians want the world to see. The UCK is the face they want the Serbs to see. The coin was flipped when the peace talks began, and it's either heads or tails; the probability that either will prevail is 50 percent.