The Starting Line of the Normal

The results of the special elections in Montenegro are due on Monday morning. The elections have been going on virtually since last August, when the presidential election race began. There were no breathers, and even the  head runners are vividly exhausted. The final convention of Momir Bulatovic's Socialist National Party (SNP), held on Tuesday in downtown Podgorica, looked like a countryside fair. Milo Djukanovic's supporters had a feast that evening in a Montenegro hotel, the biggest local information market, as they thought Bulatovic's campaign was a disaster. The Montenegrin president's followers thought they had touched the sky because only a  handful of people turned up for Bulatovic's convention, it lasted for two arduous hours, and Bulatovic's closing address was devoid of all purpose.  It will also continue to be remembered for the fact that Milosevic's name was not mentioned, for somebody probably came to the right conclusion that his involvement in Bulatovic's election campaign has become counterproductive.  Rumors had it on Wednesday morning that Bulatovic was angry with Milosevic, because the latter told him that appointing him the federal prime minister overnight was only a political propaganda stunt and that Nikola Sainovic would actually be in charge of the federal parliament.

It is more certain, however, that there is dissatisfaction within the SNP with Bulatovic's inauguration as federal Prime Minister. Podgorica is full  of eyewitnesses who swear that Momir's fans threw chairs and tables at each other. Meanwhile, the appetite of Milo's fans is rising. They believe that Djukanovic's campaign will be a stunning success and that he will win the majority of the votes, even among the Christian Orthodox part of Montenegro’s electorate. Djukanovic's supporters believe that they won in Niksic, while - in their opinion - Berane is split and there has been a twist of fortune in Herceg Novi. If you tell someone that Bulatovic won 10,000 votes and Djukanovic half as much in Herceg Novi barely six months ago, they will just wave at you and share the secret that "refugees have been deleted from voting lists".

The Montenegrin election committee was to declare how many voters there were in Montenegro at a press conference due last Wednesday. The conference was called off because some municipalities failed to deliver their lists on time. The census for entering the parliament is three percent and a special spray will be used to prevent one person from voting more than once. Relevant public opinion polls reveal that Djukanovic's coalition is actually ahead. Optimists predict that he could win at least 35 and no more than 38 seats in parliament, which would enable him to form a reasonably strong coalition government.

Some Belgrade newspapers came up with the theory that Bulatovic was fractionally ahead of his main rival, but informed sources in Montenegro say that it should not be taken seriously. The sources believe that Perovic's  liberal alliance could come in third, but some observers believe that he won't do as well as he did in the previous elections because some of his voters might decide to go for Djukanovic.

A basement in Podgorica has been transformed into a bookmakers office called Wembley. The competition is "Elections '98," bets are coming in like  hot cakes. Mladen Kalezic and Misa Djurovic are happy with the way things  are going. Most of the people who put their money on Djukanovic believe  that he will win 35 seats in parliament. The liberals are in second position. "They like gambling," says a young man taking in bets. The betting procedure is quite complicated because it is done at two levels. Apart from  predicting how many sets in parliament each party would win, you must also bet on how many Montenegrin municipalities they stand to gain. There is a  total of 20,000 combinations and the minimum wager is 10 dinars. Some people put in as much as 2,000 German marks.

Some minor parties, including the JUL, backed out of the elections. The election committee says they didn't do so on time so they will, formally,  take part in the race. The JUL case is especially intriguing, because the party was about to run on its own for the first time, and observers say that it stood to win a thousand votes at most. In order to avoid embarrassment, JUL withdrew from the elections making a lot of noise on its way out. The Montenegrin police denied claims that a prominent JUL member, Ivan Markovic, had been attacked somewhere between Prijepolje and Bijelo  Polje. The all-round impression is that the JUL blew the whole thing out of proportion so that it would have an alibi for backing out.

A number of things could happen after the elections, depending on how emphatically a particular party wins the race. A "popular protest rally" could be on the cards, but the police indicated that it won't be on the receiving end this time round.

Any kind of a state of emergency seems to be off as the international community made it clear it wouldn't tolerate anything like that. Bulatovic's statement that the international community treats Djukanovic like a "minor  role player" can only be counterproductive as it is quite apparent that it's actually the other way around. First of all, the world regards the Montenegrin elections as regional rather than local.

Second, it is obvious that Djukanovic has raised his rhetoric regarding Milosevic, since he realized that Montenegro has been excluded from the "Kosovo package". Well informed sources say that Madeleine Albright's letter just wasn't kind. Local guests are virtually being thrown out of the few Podgorica hotels to make room for some 120 CSCE observers and 20 European Parliament members elected to supervise the Montenegrin elections. Djukanovic is having dinner with foreign ambassadors on Friday and the entire Contact Group should be represented. Along with the "foreign factor", there are a number of logistical problems completely eliminating the possibility of a state of emergency.

If this is how things turn out, the Serbian regime will keep lending logistical and financial support to the unitarisation of the federal state while Montenegro will continue to defy that process. The announced amendments  to the law on security services seem to be a warm up for the upcoming battle.

Various rumors are running around in the heated pre-election atmosphere.  Reporters watching the final rally staged by Bulatovic's supporters were  falling asleep with boredom when they received a telephone call from Herceg Novi asking if it was true that there were casualties in "a fight that broke out". Rumors have it that Bulatovic will claim victory before the race is over to incite a rebellion in case he loses, and some people say that a lot of rifles can be seen here and there these days.

A statement was released by the federal government on Wednesday, confirming Bulatovic's promise that both republican constitutions would be modified to suit the federal constitution. The federal stocks managing director, Milorad Stanojevic, was "retired" the same day. Stanojevic's demise from the federal government could be very significant if he is replaced by someone who can start exhausting Montenegro by manipulating the market with stocks. A liter of sunflower oil costs 18 dinars in Montenegro, and it is believed that the shortage of this item has been caused deliberately. A local firm stepped in and provided some reserves so oil shortage will not determine the outcome of the elections, but this game of economic and political power will definitely mark the post-election period in the southern Yugoslav republic.

As this issue of the weekly Vreme is being completed, the organizers of Djukanovic's final rally are setting up the stage for the event. Djukanovic, Novak Kilibarda and Zarko Rakcevic will address the crowd. A special treat will come in the form of a telegram of support sent from Subotica by Dejan Savicevic and Predrag Mijatovic. The organizers thought the telegram would be a surprise, but its contents are already the talk of the day in Podgorica. Nothing is secret here except the outcome of the forthcoming elections.

The Telegram

The Yugoslav national team's final preparations for the World Cup in France are the reason for our absence from Milo Djukanovic's final pre-election rally.
In this decisive moment for Montenegro and Yugoslavia, we are with you in this victorious path, convinced that Djukanovic's coalition will provide peace and prosperity to our beloved Montenegro and our country Yugoslavia , whose colors we shall wear in France. Athletes are always with those who want to move forward.
Let the victory of Djukanovic's coalition be a prelude to Yugoslavia's victory at the forthcoming World Cup.

Yours faithfully, and always with you,
Predrag Mijatovic and Dejan Savicevic