The Cradle Rocks

When you reach the end, you inevitably think of the beginning. In the case of the Serbian movement for self-destruction, at the beginning there was Milosevic's promise to return dignity and Kosovo to the Serbian people. As for dignity, nobody here knows the meaning of that word anymore, but during these past five years, many, too many Serbs have believed that nobody was their match.

They had a hell of a good time, but it didn't last long. As usual, the keepers of world order arrived at the end to find out who messed things up. The Big Boss ended up on international reward posters, while his accomplices are getting ready to slowly tiptoe away. The only thing which might stir up another plot is Kosovo, that is if the Serbs, after all that has happened, have not lost the will to get agitated over their "cradle".

Even most of those who denounced Milosevic long ago admit that he has defeated separatism and unified Serbia. But many future defeats could be foreseen from that success. He simply went there, shot at demonstrators, announced that Serbs were now protected, left behind the army and the police and left. The world had already branded him as an transgressor, but the case was neither a simple nor a major one, and another war broke out elsewhere soon afterwards.

In the meantime, ethnic Albanians from Kosovo turned their backs on Serbia, organized long-term resistance and thus raised their national self-consciousness and developed political discipline. Their leaders toured the world, benefited from the assistance of loyal emigrants, received international missions and, bypassing the Belgrade apparatchiks, internationalized the problem of Kosovo.

Tiny, skinny Ibrahim Rugova became the leader of the major ethnic Albanian party almost by chance, but this writer, who looks like somebody constantly fighting a terrible fear, has turned out to be the ideal personification of Albanian suffering. He inevitably inspires sympathy and admiration of various humanitarian and diplomatic missions, as a living monument to the sacrifice for human rights, which happens to be the strongest point of the ethnic Albanian political strategy. Some day, of course, the world will be disappointed after it turns out that the experience of a victim teaches nothing but how to later become a good executioner. At least, that's the way it happens in the Balkans, where victims and executioners switch places easily. But that day is still far away, and at the moment Rugova has things his way, helped mostly by the Serbs and Milosevic himself.

The small number of privileged and overprotected Serbs in Kosovo has already turned into parasites who will be unwilling or morally incapable to survive and remain there. The loudly promoted plan of settling 100,000 Serbs in Kosovo has silently faded, just like the one concerning the expulsion of the alleged 300,000 Albanian immigrants. The movement of so many people can be done only by war, as has been proved in Croatia and Bosnia, but then everybody runs away. The question is whether Serbia is left with any other choice but to give up Kosovo or start a war against the Albanians.

The war in Bosnia is still gaining momentum, the front in Croatia could reopen any minute, but as far as Serbia is concerned, it has for a long time been practically excluded. Maybe not forever, but any attempt to expand its territories to the West would cause international intervention, already hanging in the air. The "Southern front" issue is on the agenda again, since it is believed that Milosevic must return to where he started, because everybody is aware of the fact that the conflict between the inhabitants and the owner of the land remained unsolved.

The ethnic Albanians in Kosovo are currently holding their doubly clandestine elections, in places only they know about, with much more precaution than the Serbs in Croatia carried out their elections with some time ago. But, the Serbs were armed, they marked their land by barricades, enjoyed the full support of the Army and established total control over their territory. It is very unlikely that the Albanians are ready to do something like this in Kosovo. Although there have for years been rumors that they are about to revolt any second, there has not been a single incident there for a long time. Compared to others, it seems as if they aren't making even traffic violations. However, I would not bet on the notorious thesis of the Serbian nationalists saying that the Albanians are keeping calm because they are cowards.

They are simply aware that time is on their side and have patiently been waiting for Serbia to reach its weakest point. It seems that this point is near, although nobody knows how much further Serbia can still fall. They probably realize that they should not miss the opportunity to attempt to secede Kosovo while the present regime is in power. They might be hoping that the world is so fed up with Milosevic that it would make an exception in the case of violent redrawing of borders since it would be done at Milosevic's expense.

In any case, the Albanian elections represent a challenge for Serbia. Its smartest move would be to proclaim them illegal, refraining from using batons right away, no matter how hard it would be for the present regime. In such a case, the Albanians would be the first to take up arms and would thus lose the advantage of being looked upon as victims. But, except for verbal excursions, Milosevic has not, so far, demonstrated the ability to enter into a conflict without marking himself as the main instigator. Besides, he is once again under strong pressure, both from the inside and the outside. Everybody is criticizing his improvised federation with Montenegro and the electoral mascarade with Seselj. He always gets nervous in such situations and starts looking around trying to find someone to wage a war with.

Of all the possible moves with regard to Kosovo, the one that is definitely out of the question is that Milosevic would ever sit at a table with Ibrahim Rugova. It would remind him of one of those terrible dreams an adult can have: being back in elementary school and sitting in benches with kids. The mere physical existence of someone like Rugova represents for Milosevic irrevocable proof that it has been discovered that he fixed his marks, turning Fs into As.

It is probably true that no regime in Serbia would ever consent to giving up Kosovo and offering it to the Albanians, with the right to later add it to Albania. Property is property, even if only on paper and even if it turns out that the Kosovo game is not worth the candle. The ethnic Albanians can wait for a long time until there is someone in Serbia to deal with them in the way De Gaulle did with Algeria.

The idea of dividing Kosovo has for a long time been known to many in Serbia, but why look for a peaceful solution when you can wage a war there like any place else? Rugova and the others must be satisfied with Milosevic efficiency in returning dignity to the Serbs and they probably would not accept division any longer. In a future war Albania would most certainly take part, and it is becoming an ally of the West and can count on its help, unlike Serbia, which continues to refuse to look around and take note of the enormous changes that have occurred in the past few years.