Big Mixup

“Kosovo is one step away from all-out war.  I am leaving here without a magic bullet for peace”, stated the American Ambassador to the United Nations, Richard Holbrooke, as he left FRY.  Self-criticism was quite appropriate.  Not only is it not clear after Holbrooke’s latest tour of the Balkans what it is precisely that the Americans wish to achieve in Kosovo, but things have gotten even more complicated with the announcement that the State Department had established official contacts with members of the Liberation Army of Kosovo.

Holbrooke’s visit itself abounded with episodes which can only be classified as farce, with elements of the theater of the absurd.  For instance, in Skoplje the leader of Kosovo’s Albanian’s, Ibrahim Rugova, came to the meeting with Holbrooke, dressed in a sweater, a jacket and the compulsory scarf (at ninety degrees Fahrenheit — in the shade).  When Holbrooke suggested that he take his sweater off, according to the American Time magazine, Rugova refused with the words: “I’m an Albanian hick”, probably making efforts to be funny.  In Junik, where the “accidental” meeting with two KLA commanders took place, Holbrooke allowed himself to be photographed without his shoes, sitting next to a heavily armed, uniformed individual pertaining to be the political commissar of the village.  Holbrooke’s later explanations that the photograph was taken without his knowledge, and that he unsuccessfully asked for the individual in question to be disarmed, did not change the impression that the American Ambassador, purposely or otherwise, contributed to the public promotion of the KLA.

CAFE POTEMKIN: This theater even tried to play at being the Serbian Government: all during Holbrooke’s visit to Kosovo, RV and PVO Mig planes flew over the region, breaking the sound barrier above Pristina on several occasions, in a kind of tardy response to NATO’s intentions in the air from the previous week.  Still, the most comical scenes took place in Decani: attempting to show that “life is coming back to Decani”, authorities quickly fixed up a cafe in the center of this town, planting undercover policemen in the cafe’s garden and fixing them up with cold drinks so as that they might appear like carefree citizens of Decani.  The hoax was discovered when Holbrooke’s convoy, after a brief tour of the desolate town in ruins, passed once more in front of the mentioned cafe, where the previously described “guests” were seen in front of the police station, chortling merrily with their uniformed colleagues, while they probably waited for a bus to take them back to Pristina.

When Holbrooke came back to Belgrade with the intention of meeting Milosevic for the second time that week, after visiting Junik and Decani, some kind of dramatic result of this meeting was impatiently awaited.  Many believed that Milosevic would react sharply to the “accidental meeting” in Junik.  This did not happen — to everyone’s general surprise, the Tanjug Press Agency’s report from Junik for the first time mentioned the KLA without the use of the word “terrorism”.  In fact, as we learn, the two of them spent the better part of their time together watching the Yugoslav-American soccer match in Paris.  By this time, probably both of them were aware that there were no chances for progress in the negotiations.  Holbrooke somewhat unwillingly demanded from Milosevic that he withdraw the police checkpoint in Komoran, twenty kilometers away from Pristina, promising that he would use his influence with the KLA for them to withdraw their own checkpoint which is located a small distance away.  Milosevic refused this, so that Holbrooke went home without any, not even symbolic, negotiating trophy.

Had Milosevic been ready to put up with the “mischief” in Junik without any hard feelings, what Holbrooke did several days later in Trans-Montaigne was evidently the straw that broke the camels back.  The Yugoslav Federal Premier, Momir Bulatovic, whose rating drastically fell after May elections in Montenegro, was scheduled to participate in the summit of the chiefs of states and governments in this small Swiss town.  To Bulatovic’s great surprise and anger, Holbrooke materialized in Trans-Montaign, not unlike the Evil Witch in the Sleeping Beauty, and insisted that he is the only one who has the right to speak about the situation in Kosovo.  Bulatovic packed his bags and flew back home crestfallen, while Holbrooke stated in his speech that his colleague, Undersecretary Robert Gellbard, had met with an unnamed KLA Chief in an unnamed Western European country.  Milosevic gave vent to his justified anger at such behavior on the part of his old negotiating partner in a commentary issued in Tanjug in which he noted that Holbrooke “had lost all credibility as a negotiator”.  If this means that there is no more place for Holbrooke in Milosevic’s reception room, it is no longer clear with whom the FRY President intends to negotiate from now on, given that he had already once refused to meet with Gellbard, and where Gonzales is concerned, he merely smirks.

Even though the sudden change in the American attitude toward the KLA, which Gellbard only recently called a “terrorist organization”, fits in well with domestic proponents of the Anti-Serb conspiracy theory, who claim that the West has been secretly supporting armed separatism in Kosovo from the very beginning — serious analysts believe that what is more likely at issue is an attempt to “tame” the KLA, and that after a brief flirtation, strong pressures will be exerted on the Albanian side to accept a cease-fire and to submit to Ibrahim Rugova’s political control.  As this article is being written, a meeting is taking place between Rugova and his colleagues from other Albanian parties in Pristina, where the central theme is “establishing government agencies of the Republic of Kosovo”.  Even though there are still no statements on the outcome of this meeting, it is certain that what is at issue is a step in the direction suggested in a previous issue of VREME NDA (see article “State of Imbalance”).  Namely, the whole idea is that the KLA should submit and be bound to the “Parliament of the Republic of Kosovo”, which was elected at the beginning of this year.  However, it is still uncertain whether those leaders of Albanian parties who harbor ambitions of representing the KLA singlehandedly, above all Adem Demaci, will accept such a plan, while it is still more uncertain whether such pretenders will be accepted by the KLA itself.

SWISS CONNECTION: Even though American officials are refusing to give more detailed information on who it is Gellbard met with, VREME found out from reliable sources that the meeting took place in Switzerland with members of an organization which is officially called the People’s Movement of Kosovo, better known by the contraction LjPK (Levizja per Kosoves).  This is an organization which has been representing itself for some time now as the political wing of the KLA, but which is registered as a “humanitarian organization” in Switzerland.  LjPK, which had established offices throughout Europe in the last two years, is in charge of a monetary fund, “The Call of the Homeland”, through which the Albanian side gets financial contributions for the KLA.  There are also founded suspicions that LjPK people are the actual authors of the famous statements by the “KLA Headquarters” which are occasionally being faxed in the Albanian language to Pristina and Tirana.

There are two reasons why Albanians should be very careful where these people are concerned.  Namely, even though it is certain that LjPK has some financial and organizational influence on the KLA, it is extremely uncertain whether they are actually capable of controlling people on the ground.  “Those LjPK guys are sitting in Switzerland, eating melted cheese, while we are here, bloodying our heads”, stated recently a local KLA Commander in an interview with a VREME journalist.  “We do receive help from them, but not orders.  If they want to be in charge, let them first come here.”  In other words, it could turn out that Gellbard actually spoke with KLA sponsors and not with its leadership, which is far from being the same thing.

The other, and far more serious American problem is the fact that at this moment there are few chances that any Albanian factor will accept anything less than the complete independence of Kosovo.  This especially holds true for LjPK, whose leaders are former political prisoners from the eighties — people who formed their political attitudes in Serbian jails.  One of the people who most probably met with Gellbard is Bardilj Mahmuti, a man who only two months ago stated that “The only thing up for negotiation is the establishment of an international border between Kosovo and Serbia.  No other agreement will hold.”  When it is taken into account that the LjPK leadership includes two members who come from Western Macedonia, and that the slogan of this organization “Zeri i Kosoves” clearly demands the joining of parts of Macedonia to Kosovo, it turns out that there are very few chances that these people will contribute to any kind of process which will lead to a stabilization of the situation in the region and to the maintaining of international borders in the Balkans — which is the explicit objective of the Americans.

DANGEROUS CONFUSION: That is — if that still continues to be their objective.  Namely, there are discussions these days among some circles in Washington of the possibility of reaching the following agreement with the KLA: “We’ll give you independent Kosovo, and you keep your hands off Macedonia.”  In the event that this idea, which is still under consideration, is approved by the American leadership, the road to general catastrophe in the Balkans would be well paved.  Firstly, it is not known whether anyone on the Albanian side is sufficiently powerful to be able to commit to giving up on aspirations in Western Macedonia; secondly, there is no reason why the KLA should honor such an agreement.  Many sources indicate that the KLA infrastructure has already been organized in Macedonia for some time now, and that it is just a matter of time when it will be activated.  Even if, in the meantime, Americans bring considerable force to help the government in Skoplje, the Americans would have very few prospects in curbing the expansion of Kosovo.  In any case, the very fact that this “option” is being considered indicates the degree of confusion and frustration among the main players in American foreign policy.

This confusion has evidently begun to bother American allies in Europe, who have taken a cool attitude to Holbrooke’s and Gellbard’s flirtations with the KLA.  The result is a considerable weakening of the idea of an independent NATO intervention against Serbia.  Greece and Macedonia were the first to withdraw permissions for their airports and airspace to be used in such actions; in the meantime, France, Italy and Germany have placed a condition on their participation which requires prior approval from the UN Security Council.  Only the British are still supporting the American idea of intervention without any reservations, so that it could be concluded that the possibility of NATO sending bombers to Kosovo has gone to shambles.

This could be a dangerous conclusion.  It is precisely the degree of frustration and confusion in American foreign policy which increases the possibility of a “Cowboy” move with which America could attempt to improve its image, which has been somewhat tarnished by Holbrooke’s lack of negotiating success.  Besides that, it should not be forgotten that Milosevic has demonstrated considerable talent up to now in turning the whole world against himself by making an enormous mistake (like the one in Drenica).  This is a time when all the players in the bloods drama in Kosovo should behave with complete, that is to say, with surgical caution.  It is not only Kosovo, but the entire Balkans which is on the negotiating table, while the time for trial-and-error experimentation has now been completely exhausted.