Politics of Swift Failures

It appears that the abandoned patent of the former Yugoslavia called self-rule actually has far deeper roots than was supposed, and it appears that in some mysterious way it is once again sprouting in Serbia.  I don’t know in which other way to explain the fact that in this country mailmen are still delivering mail, garbage men are still collecting waste materials, actors are acting, singers are singing, thieves are stealing, TV is lying and generally life is unfolding normally, even though the top of the Government is paralyzed and invisible, as if it has withdrawn into deep illegality.

For instance, do you still remember the President of Serbia, Milan Milutinovic?  He is the well mannered gentleman in a tight suit who once used to love to shake hands and to receive guests.  Neither has anyone seen his friend Milosevic for some time now, except for Holbrooke — that is if he is to be believed.  Momir Bulatovic, who is still trying to fool everyone with the old trick that he is nothing less than the President of the Federal Government, is buzzing around, not knowing where to stop, and where to begin.  He was recently arrested in Switzerland for impersonation.

The Parliaments of the Federation and the Republic are on leave of absence.  MP’s probably realized on their own that they have become superfluous, so that they are no longer grumbling and asking anyone to ask them what they think about the situation.  They would do best if they concentrated on fishing, picking mushrooms or husbandry.  Namely, it turns out that political technology has developed to such a degree here that all the principal actors have become superfluous.

Judging from all this, the situation in Kosovo is developing in the best possible and most desirable way.  There is no more need for special explanations about this matter, or for the public to be unnecessarily disturbed.  Those who have a strong desire for worrying and fretting should make an effort of informing themselves on their own.  In actual fact, it seems that people at the top of the Government would like it best if everyone forgot them a bit — both the people they govern and the outer world which is sending threatening signals.  This time it seems that the Americans decided not to ask Milosevic for help, having realized that a born pyromaniac can never make a good firefighter.

 It is surprising with what speed the Liberation Army of Kosovo (KLA) has advanced from a terrorist organization to a legitimate negotiating partner.  This radical turn occurred from March to June, probably less owing to efforts of the KLA itself, than those of Milosevic.  No one was ever in a hurry to acknowledge such popular rebellions, especially not violent methods or separatist goals, because the world loves to live under an illusion of stability and with an idea that aggression is part of the ugly history of mankind.
Milosevic had an opportunity of taking such an approach, of sharing the initial revolt with the rest of the world at the actions of the KLA, and of asking for help when the American Envoy Robert Gellbard called the Albanian rebels terrorists.  Now this same Gellbard is meeting with representatives of the KLA, and Serbia is being subjected to sanctions and threats of NATO intervention.

What happened in the meantime?  Milosevic organized a plebiscite against foreign intervention, badly feigned readiness for dialogue and for weeks sent a delegation to Pristina in vain, with the idea of only accusing the Albanian side for refusing to negotiate.  It was a complete, irreplaceable waste of time.  On the ground, it turned out that special units were not only unable to destroy KLA, but that the KLA had grown from the several masked men into an army with uniforms which supposedly already controls around forty percent of Kosovo.  And the police only managed to produce ruins and tens of thousands of refugees.  But the main thing is that Gonzales has not set foot on Serbian territory.
It is difficult to find another example of such swift political failure.  But what appears as failure form the Serbian perspective, is in the eyes of the international community a great evil and a threat to the entire Balkans.  Thus Milosevic could find himself for the first time in a position of joint accusations both domestically and from the outside.  Serbian anger at the loss of Kosovo could be happily joined with international anger which has the same origins.  Namely, Milosevic is seriously threatening the intention of the world of not allowing borders to be changed in the Balkans.  His policies and his manner of dealing with problems is leaving Albanians awestruck, inspiring them to dream the wildest dreams and to harbor the craziest hopes.

I fear that they are barely withholding themselves from publicly proclaiming that which once used to be his goal: all Albanians in one state.  And thence great grief first of all for Macedonia, and then for the entire Balkans.  Thus, the election slogan by Milan Milutinovic “Serbia and the World” could be logically continued with the phrase “against Milosevic”.  He owes Serbia Kosovo, which he once promised it, and to the world he owes stability in the region.

If it happens, as there are premonitions, that the Hague Tribunal begins proceedings against the President of FRY, perhaps not even the greatest nationalists will any longer have any desire to prove that the Tribunal is anti-Serbian.  Perhaps they might actually think the opposite.  In any case, all options would be closed to Milosevic from that point on.  Not even Lukashenko would be willing to come to Belgrade, and it is a big question whether another book by Mira Markovic would be translated into yet another of the world’s languages, except perhaps for the eventual use of the Tribunal itself.

That is why the regime in Belgrade is looking like it has withdrawn its head into its shoulders, having constricted itself, keeping quiet and preparing to take the blow which no one knows where it will come from and whether it will be possible to survive.