A Chance for the Moderate

Although many people expected clashes between Serbian police and troops, on the one side, and the KLA, on the other, to end this week, the opposite happened; the Serb offensive has entered its third and final stage. After restoring traffic on the Pristina-Prizren road and recapturing the KLA stronghold Drenica, Serb forces have launched an offensive to free the Djakovica-Decani-Pec road. Fierce fighting is in progress around the villages Junik, Glodjani and Crnobreg. The number of casualties is rising on a daily basis; four police officers and eight KLA members were killed on Tuesday, while a lot more were wounded. It seems that the Serbian regime, which said that fighting wouldn't stop until the KLA is eliminated, were more honest than Slobodan Milosevic, who told a foreign envoy more than two weeks ago that clashes would end very soon. Meanwhile, threats by the western powers to step in with a military intervention seem to have lost their intensity. Although NATO said that plans for an intervention in Kosovo have been finalized and approved, politicians with the authority of deciding when NATO should step in are restrained. It therefore appears that Serbia has no major obstacle in breaking down ethnic Albanian separatism in Kosovo for good.

However, things are not always what they seem. Now is the time for Serbia to show restraint, subtlety and political wisdom more than ever before, for the distinct chance for a peaceful solution to the conflict won't be there much longer. The Serb offensive has temporarily eliminated the most hard-line players of the ethnic Albanian team, Marxist-oriented extremists who have been opposed to any kind of peace talks. The likes of KLA spokesman Jakup Krasniqi and a number of commanders known under names of various reptiles and predators ("Snake", "Lion", etc.) kept saying they could achieve their goal by war only. "There is no need to negotiate because force is the only language Serbia understands", one of them recently told a foreign reporter. People on good terms with foreign-based ethnic Albanians, who at one stage threatened to take over the KLA, perhaps realized that ideological dogmatism does not help make a good commander and that one negotiates when one is forced to, rather than when one wants to. If not them, everybody else came to this conclusion and it is likely that support for the ethnic Albanian extremists will keep dwindling.

Contrary to the general belief in Serbia, the KLA never was a homogenous and unified organization. It was more like a popular movement with many rifts regarding ideology, business and regional interests among its many clans. Opposed to the KLA's Marxists and Leninists stood its so-called military wing, comprising former police and army officers with professional skills. From the very beginning, the first lot asked for the KLA's rapid transformation from a guerrilla movement to a proper army and insisted that as much "free territory" as possible should be occupied as soon as possible. The "soldiers", on the other hand, pointed out that it was too early for such action. It appears the latter were right, for the KLA's first quest, the attack on Orahovac, ended in complete failure and created the conditions for a Serbian counterattack. The "free territory" is gone and Krasniqi, who at one stage claimed that the KLA controlled more than a half of Kosovo's territory, has nothing left to say.

At this time, the two KLA factions are blaming each other for defeat. The "military wing" is saying that the strategy of conquering territory was wrong and that they should have stuck to the hit-and-run tactics, while the Marxists claim that the idea was good but badly implemented in the field by the commanders. The conflict between the Marxists and the soldiers has now spread to the entire base. Meanwhile, some 200,000 refugees are roaming around and living on scarce supplies and humanitarian aid. They dare not return to their homes until the Serbian troops leave. These people looked upon the KLA as their protectors and defenders, but many of them now regret denouncing Rugova's policy of non-violent resistance. However, there is a completely opposite reaction too among the ethnic Albanians. Those who had their houses burnt down or their loved ones killed are yearning for revenge and are ideal for recruitment. Much like the entire ethnic Albanian movement, the KLA is splitting rapidly into two irreconcilable factions. One resembles the moderate PLO, while the other is the exact copy of organizations such as Hamas or Hezbolah.

The moderate faction, however, will not get a chance to do the right thing unless it is given one. The KLA has just suffered a heavy defeat; that should be enough for the time being because hasty efforts to eliminate the organization completely could be counterproductive. It is impossible, in any case, to eliminate completely an organization such as the KLA, unless the Serbian police intend to stay in Kosovo's villages for good or fight with the local population every few weeks or so.

Let's take the village of Likovac for example. It was a KLA stronghold until last week, when the police moved in and withdrew after burning down the village. Western diplomats who visited the village later the offensive say the KLA have moved back in. Much the same thing happened in the village of Smonice near Djakovica. Therefore, the efforts to get rid of the KLA in each and every village are meaningless.

They crucial step towards peace could come from Belgrade. It would be foolish to expect of Rugova to sit down and talk until the fighting ends, for he will have an excuse not to as long as the clashes continue. Bryan Donnelly, the British ambassador to Yugoslavia, offered on the behalf of the Contact Group a compromise to both sides involved in the conflict. Although the details are still secret, it is known that the plan envisages wide autonomy for the ethnic Albanians and international guarantees that it will not be taken away the way the autonomy provided by the 1974 Constitution was. However, it does not envisage independence or even the possibility for secession from Serbia.

It is somewhat humiliating that the plan was drawn up thousands of miles away from Belgrade and Pristina. However, both the Serbs and the ethnic Albanians should now eat their pride and consider what Donnely has offered. After all, Kosovo's fate is in the hands of the authorities in Belgrade and Pristina, not those in Bonn, Washington and Moscow. It is time for Milosevic and Rugova to sit down and talk to each other rather than let others make their decisions for them.

The KLA has been dispersed rather than defeated. If the resulting opportunity to settle the conflict by political means is wasted, the KLA will be back with a vengeance and a structure far more perilous. The new KLA generation to emerge very soon will be far more fanatical and prepared to adopt worldwide terrorist methods.

If a political solution to the conflict is found, this generation will disappear for it won't be able to survive in a peaceful environment. However, if Serb and ethnic Albanian leaders are unable to make any progress, we will be looking back at what has been going in Kosovo for the past six months as the good old times.