Bosnia-Herzegovina Before the Elections

Leading into the general elections in Republica Srpska, scheduled for September 12 and 13, there is an ever disappearing and paling shadow that remains behind the great cloud which rose after the murder of the high police official in Pale, Srdjan Knezevic.  At first it looked like the murder of Knezevic will decide the outcome of these elections — from the Coalition “Sloga” it was claimed that the evidence leads directly to Momcilo Krajisnik, and between the lines it is indicated that leading into the elections Krajisnik could not only remain without immunity, but that he might altogether lose his chance to run.  Ten days before the election, the murder of Knezevic and Krajisnik’s immunity are being mentioned less and less, and it appears that the entire pre-election campaign is taking its regular course, with all customary, but not excessive amount of pre-election mudslinging.

Premier Milorad Dodik, who was most active in the mudslinging department in this instance, mentioning undeniable facts, appears to have taken the foot off the gas pedal, faced with a list of suspicions that the top policeman in Pale was killed by his fellow policemen, and perhaps someone from outside.  Krajisnik, whose checkered past includes compromising details that are not related just to this case, also appears not to have much interest in prodding into what happened in his backyard.  Judging by some unofficial opinion polls which are mainly released in RS by foreigners for internal or party use, after the Knezevic incident, Krajisnik’s chances of beating the leader of the socialists, Zivko Radisic, in the race for the Presidium of Bosnian and Herzegovina and RS are no longer as convincing as they were at the beginning of the campaign.

The winner in this battle (in the event that those responsible for implementing the Dayton Agreement do not change something at the last moment) should sit on the three-member Presidium of B&H in the following eight months.  Representatives of the international community, who are once again frequently coming to B&H, have reiterated that they would not like to see Momcilo Krajisnik occupy that position once again.  American State Secretary, Magdalen Albright indicated this openly, avoiding to meet Krajisnik in her visit to Sarajevo last week, while her visit left in its wake the story that Americans would like to see the three-member presidium in the makeup of Izetbegovic, Zubak and Radisic.

As an experienced politician, Krajisnik will certainly do everything to remain in the position which he has occupied thus far, and in response to Albright and all those who share her views to become the chairman of the three-member Presidium.  His campaign has for its slogan “he knows how to deal with them”, which should most probably refer to the representatives of the Croats and Muslims in the Federation, but also to all those in RS who definitely decided to stop the former SDS political monopoly.  His political opponents claim that Krajisnik “is only good with money,” and that the story of him as a “tough” and “uncompromising Serb” no longer holds water.  In any case, Krajisnik is for the first time entering these elections with a considerable dose of uncertainty — behind him stands a weakening party whose top perceives the upcoming elections as “the last line of defense.”  According to widely held opinion, were Momcilo Krajisnik to fall, SDS will also follow for all time, with many of its present leaders possibly ending up in jail.

What is already known is that last one who will speak before the end of the pre-election silence in the Banjaluka Square will be Krajisnik.  During that time, while Krajisnik will be busy collecting the last political points in a city which is obviously not well disposed toward him, Biljana Plavsic and Milorad Dodik should be in a plane, en route to Moscow, if there is anyone there by that time who will be able to receive them.  The visit to Moscow, leading up to the elections should suggest to the voters the impression that the ruling duo does not only have a helmsman in Washington, but that it is on equally good terms with Moscow.

Regardless of the outcome, the September elections in Republika Srpska should finally put an end to the unique polarization of power which is present in the territory from Pale to Banjaluka.  In last year’s elections, a half-way point was reached.  Since then Pale subsisted on memories and earlier habits — like someone who had not completely lost power, or was merely temporarily in that situation.  At the same time, the people in Banjaluka also did not behave like they had firm control over power on all levels and in every place in RS.  How it looked in practice was best seen recently in Doboj, on the occasion of the opening of the traditional international handball tournament.  The tournament would not have been held had the Government of RS not devoted a significant sum to its organization.  According to protocol, Premier Dodik was supposed to open the tournament.  SDS President, Dragan Kalinic scurried to Doboj, while local leaders of this party suggested to the Government that they cannot guarantee Dodik’s safety on his opening speech.  After certain haggling, it was decided that the tournament will be opened by the Minister for Sports in Dodik’s Government, former member of the national handball team, Milorad Karalic.

In any case, Dodik used to play basketball.