The Newly Elected

The Bosnian Serb Republic’s electronic media begin their prime time news bulletins with reports on who from the international community’s many officials visited the RS and why. Robert Berry, the head of the CSCE mission who organized and supervised the Bosnian elections, visited Banjaluka last Monday. Berry met with Zivko Radisic, Biljana Plavsic and Milorad Dodik, as did several ambassadors. Robert Gelbard, the US Special Envoy to the Balkans, paid a visit to several RS political parties. Quite simply, all foreign politicians who visited Banjaluka in the past week or so met with the newly elected or deposed politicians in RS.

It’s still not quite clear who’s coming to power and who’s leaving, although the official election results were published last week. It is hard to tell how long the transfer of power will last in a country which has two presidents – an official one and a special one in the person of Carlos Westendorp. It is peculiar that none of the foreign envoys can find time to meet with officials of the Serbian Democratic Party (SDS), which is still the largest parliamentary party in spite of its dwindling strength and popularity.

It seems that many foreign politicians, especially Robert Gelbard, are finding it difficult to come to terms with the fact that Nikola Poplasen is the new RS president. After their meeting last week, Gelbard promised to keep an eye on Poplasen but made an even bigger diplomatic error when he referred to the new RS president as “he” or “him”. It was a bit easier with Zivko Radisic, the RS delegate in the Bosnian presidency, and Momcilo Krajisnik, who is now just an “ordinary” SDS member. Things became complicated again with Milorad Dodik, who says he will remain Prime Minister, although his political adversaries say that he is already the former RS Premier.

The implementation of the election results will have to wait for a while, for the process of handing over power is a long one in these parts. All diplomats on business in the RS these days want to know who will be the next Prime Minister. Some of them even suggest who the major powers want in that position. The Prime Minister will be appointed by Nikola Poplasen, who says that he hasn’t made up his mind just yet. Poplasen apparently intends to offer the Prime Minister’s position to the SDS, as it’s the biggest party in parliament. Along with a few minor parties, the SDS and the Radicals will have 32 seats in parliament, which is not enough to form a government. On the other side, the Sloga coalition, backing Milorad Dodik, can count on just as many seats.

The present stalemate has invited many local observers to start speculating with all sorts of combinations as to what might happen. As far as public combinations are concerned, the Serbian Radical Party (SRS) and the SDS have called all pro-Serb parties and coalitions to put their differences aside and to form a united front so that they could form a government on their own. The Sloga coalition, comprising the Serbian National Party (SNS), the Socialists and the Social Democrats have effectively ignored the appeal and keep saying that Milorad Dodik is their candidate. Dodik also has Carlos Westendorp’s support, meaning that he could also be backed by the Bosnian Federation deputies.

According to one of the scripts, Poplasen could come up with an SDS candidate who will suit everyone, but who will be denied by the Sloga coalition. A parliamentary crisis would emerge in that case, and Dodik would remain Prime Minister for an indefinite period. After a conference on the implementation of the Dayton Accord due in Madrid early next year, Carlos Westendorp would consequently be promoted and entrusted with the election of the new Prime Minister. Poplasen hasn’t ruled out this possibility in his recent interviews but said that such a course of events would reflect the immaturity of Serb political parties. He added that it would spell defeat for him as a president and mark the beginning of his descent. In order to avert that, the new president will do his best in the coming days to produce some kind of a political compromise. No matter how the story ends, he will never declare Milorad Dodik the new Prime Minister.

The Candidates

The obvious candidates for the Prime Minister’s position are Milorad Dodik, Momcilo Krajisnik, Mladen Ivanic, Dragan Kalinic, Rajko Kasagic, Rajko Tomas and Dragan Cavic. Krajisnik’s name came up shortly after the elections, when it became apparent that he had been defeated by Radisic in the presidential race. However, Robert Gelbard and Carlos Westendorp came to Banjaluka as soon as they heard his name, with the intention of taking it off the list of candidates.

Rajko Kasagic, a former Prime Minister, could be elected again, as he serves a solution based on compromise. Kasagic kept a low profile after being sacked by his own Serbian Democratic Party. Rajko Tomas, a professor of the Economic Faculty, was an advisor to Biljana Plavsic while she was the RS president.

Fear

Immediately after SRS leader Vojislav Seselj threatened to make all NATO troops a moving target for the Serbs if they launched air strikes against Yugoslavia, many observers went straight to Poplasen and Seselj for a comment.

Poplasen, whose calm and composed appearance is a complete contrast to Seselj’s, first failed to complete his homework set by Robert Gelbard. The US envoy asked Poplasen to distance himself from Seselj’s threats, but the new RS president issued a statement condemning terrorism wherever it came from.
Those who saw themselves as sitting ducks started leaving Banjaluka even before Seselj voiced his threat. Last Saturday, for example, many Americans left. Those who have left the area temporarily have moved to Sarajevo.