State of War

The Studio B viewer who called in during the Monday, October 5 program perhaps had the most precise political analysis of the political outcome of a very dangerous situation and a NATO threat of war which hovers above our country in the past week.  “That is the last American attempt at strengthening Slobodan Milosevic’s power.”  It sounds cynical, but maybe also true.  On Wednesday morning, between the second and third rounds of negotiations, testimonials leaked that Milosevic is negotiating firmly, which is probably true.  That politician never makes tactical errors, only strategic ones.

There were many speculations: that the negotiating agenda included the proposal by Christopher Hill, American Ambassador to Macedonia and Special Mediator in the Serbian-Albanian negotiations, but also that it included Holbrooke’s offer that Russian and American troops come to Kosovo, which President Milosevic refused...  This second version does not quite correspond to the Russian decision to politically stand up against intervention and to organize its own military maneuvers as quickly as possible, but might have some connection to Koffi Annan’s complaint that he does not have his own, independent observers in Kosovo and with the proposal forwarded to him by the Security Council that he should suggest a way in which he could get relevant information from the ground.

Perhaps it has some connection with the English proposals that NATO infantry should come to Kosovo, and with some earlier NATO ambitions, according to which it would only step in to oversee the situation after an agreement had been reached by the two sides.  Yugoslav officials have not given any signs that they are thinking about such an alternative.  On the contrary, the emphatic rhetoric of refusal perhaps refers precisely to such a possibility, but still, following Russian advice, OSCE was called in.  As far as European civilian observers are concerned, OSCE is pretending that it does not understand Bulatovic’s invitation and is attempting to shift attention to OSCE observers’ offices in Vojvodian and Kosovo.

After the first round of talks with Richard Holbrooke, Slobodan Milosevic has announced that threats of intervention are a criminal act which is merely encouraging bandits.  In combination with actions taken, this means that he wishes to withdraw the armed force gradually from Kosovo and, if possible, on the basis of his own assessment of the situation on ground, so that such disengagement would not cause chaos which would be reminiscent of the withdrawal of the Americans from Saigon.

The Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA) has announced the continuation of armed attacks, armed groups are still around, there are still serious border incidents and attempts by armed groups to enter Kosovo from Albania.  A source close to the Serbian police told France Press that KLA has not been completely neutralized in Drenica, which contradicts statements made by the Government, and that the police has been denied access to that part of Kosovo, because that would inevitably lead to new conflicts.
Yugoslav government structures have announced on several occasions that operations are finished and that withdrawal of forces is under way.  Federal Premier Bulatovic informed Federal Parliament that all armed actions in Kosovo and Metohija have been stopped on Monday, September 28; that immediately after special antiterrorist police units have been withdrawn; that of the ten fighting units, which was the sum total in Kosovo and Metohija, five have been returned to locations outside the Region where they are permanently based, while five are permanently located in the Region.  Six fighting units of the Yugoslav Army have returned to their barracks in Pristina, Urosevac, Djakovica and Prizren.  Prior to that, the Serbian Prime Minister announced the withdrawal of special police units into barracks, where they should remain in a state of readiness.  That is somewhat more precise than what Serbian Prime Minister Mirko Marjanovic stated in the Parliament of Serbia one week ago, while it matches what was said by Zoran Andjelkovic , Head of the Transitional Government of Kosovo.

The day after Bulatovic’s October 6 speech, a B92 reporter reported that a convoy of buses with policemen, accompanied by one armed transport vehicle, was heading toward Kursumlija in the South of Serbia.

On Wednesday, October 7, the Security Council made another announcement, a considerably more balanced one, in which Yugoslavia is being asked to observe the previous resolution, and in which it condemns the “tactic of random and disproportionate use of force against civilians, as well as terrorist activities.”  The fact that the word “terrorist” has finally entered the Security Council’s vocabulary was immediately noted in Belgrade’s state media.

Press agency reports indicate that a split occurred in the Security Council — that the English and the Slovenians poured gasoline on the fire, while the text of the resolution was being cooled down by the Russians, the Chinese, and, which is new, by Brazilians.  If the objective of intervention, as American and English interventionists state, is to avoid the looming humanitarian crisis, war maneuvers, which would have to last for an indefinite period, could only increase the number of civilian casualties and merely block existing humanitarian actions.  The departure of the French, English and Canadian diplomatic corps, is an act of warning to Yugoslavia and precaution in view of Seselj’s threats and assessments that the situation is growing more unstable, could also limit the work of mediators and humanitarians on ground.

After certain dithering, heated rhetoric and chest beating, the Government finally announced some preparations for protecting the population: the hospital at Kragujevac is preparing beds for the eventual wounded, and in the interest of this is freeing up its beds which are presently occupied by the less seriously ill, while it is asking the municipal government to transfer stores of medicines to the hospital.  The Municipal Government of Novi Sad has announced the beginning of technical preparations for servicing technical systems, as well as for receiving new refugees.

Domestic analysts are uncertain as to what is the real objective of the newest American-European threats, initiated a few months after grinding of teeth and allowing the separatist insurgence in Kosovo to be broken.  Bora Kuzmic, Professor at the Faculty of Philosophy, assessed at last week’s Belgrade Media Center Press Club that the threat alone has increased homogenization, above all initiating the instinct for self-defense, but also being accompanied by an increase in isolationism, xenophobia and other accompanying phenomena.  If we believe that the objective of intervention is integration of this area into Europe, then threats are a definite mistake, observers Kuzmanovic.  However, he aks whether that is really the objective?  If, for instance, the interventionists are treating Serbia as a kind of Blakan Iraq, and if they wish to reduce its military power, then it is questionable whether from their perspective the tactic is actually faulty.

If this analysis is taken into account, the next question is what happens with the military balance established in Dayton (foreseen reduction in arms), and does it mean the undermining of the Dayton Agreement.

Because of the NATO threat, in Yugoslavia last week a seeming state of war was instituted.  Namely, on October 5, the Yugoslav Parliament adopted as an official document Momir Bulatovic’s expose in which he observes that FRY is under “direct threat of war.”  112 MP’s voted “for” in the People’s Assembly, while three MP’s did not vote, while in the Assembly of the Republics, 24 voted “for”.  There were no votes against.

In the expose by the Federal Premier, Momir Bulatovic, it is stated that threats of military intervention against Yugoslavia are very serious and that they should be accepted as such: “Their gravity demands that this Assembly recognizes that FRY is under direct threat of war.  Remaining committed firmly and in principle to peace and to the option of resolving all questions through dialogue and agreement, FRY must nevertheless defend itself in the event that it is attacked.  Regardless of who might attack us, we are resolved to defend ourselves with all means at our disposal.”

Bulatovic explained that by observing that the country is under direct threat of war, Federal Parliament is creating a list of situations in the country in order to assume appropriate measured, in accordance with the Constitution and the Law.  He called the indirect and postponed adoption of a decision as “useful ambiguity”: “For now, Federal Government has not proposed that Parliament announce a direct threat of war, because a solution could be found through diplomatic channels, given that talks are in progress.”  At the conclusion of the session on the current state of security in Kosovo, Bulatovic stated that the state of a direct war threat can only be declared by Federal Parliament.
“In the event that FR Yugoslavia is attacked, the order of events is known.  The first bomb to fall on the territory of FRY would force Federal Government to adopt a decision about such a state and, if possible, to inform Federal Parliament about it,” stated Bulatovic, adding that he hopes “that such a situation will not come to pass.”  The Premier of FRY stated that possible military intervention “obligates all government officials, including Federal Government to adopt a decision in keeping with the actual situation.”
He also stated that a formulation has been adopted in accordance with the Constitution and the Law, as well as that all eventual decisions will also be legitimate.
A state of war was not declared at the time of the disintegration of SFRY, and up to now has not been declared in recent, post-war history.  The President of Serbia, who still has that constitutional right, has not used it up to now.  This article (Article 83 in the Constitution of Serbia) is otherwise in the package of decrees which is part of the initiative for synchronizing the constitutions of the republics and the federation, and which has been declared unconstitutional.

According to the Constitution of FRY, Article 78, Paragraph 2, a state of war, a state of direct threat of war and martial law are declared by Federal Parliament.  According to Article 99, Paragraph 10 of the Federal Constitution, when Federal Parliament is unable to call a session, Federal Government declares  a state of war, a state of direct threat of war and martial law after it has listened to the opinions of the President of the Republic and the President of Federal Parliament.  It is required to submit all decisions adopted during a state of war to Parliament for approval.  During a state of war, Parliament cannot be dissolved.  With the mentioned parliamentary decision, Bulatovic got the green light.  All that remains are consultations with the President of the Republic.

The Yugoslav Law on Defense, adopted on May 27, 1994, deals with the case of declaring a state of direct threat of war in the following manner:
Article 6 states that in the event of a state of war, a state of direct threat of war and martial law: citizens, state officials, enterprises and other legal entities are required to adopt measures and act in accordance with obligations outlined in the plan for general mobilization and the plan for organizing preparations for defense and decisions made by Federal Parliament; and command, units and institutions of the Yugoslav Army are required to act in accordance with the plans for mobilization and exploitation of the Yugoslav Army and decisions made by the President of the Republic.

Article 8 stipulates that in the even of a state of war, a state of direct threat of war and martial law, the President of the Republic, in accordance with decisions taken by the Supreme Defense Council, must decree measures of readiness, mobilization and exploitation of the Yugoslav Army, and other measures and actions which the Yugoslav Army must undertake with regard to prevention and removal of the danger which threatens the defense of the country and its security.

What has been done with the army is not known to the public at large, except for the fact that the Vice-President of the Government of Serbia suggested that antiaircraft units are in a state of readiness, and that the population will be notified in a timely fashion, while Zoran Lilic, Vice-President of Federal Government, stated that there will be no general mobilization for now.

Zoran Djindjic, President of the Democratic Party, observed that with its newest decisions the Government has declared a cold war against the rest of the world.  That could be true, even though it is more correct to say that war has been declared to the better part of the Yugoslav population.  Seselj made his usual threats, but it is not insignificant that he was actually talking about what could possibly happen — a state of war is a very touch “institution”, as a rule it stops all political life and brings those in power into a position of deciding how to deal with whom, with total arbitrariness...

Are the ruling people in Yugoslavia decided on exploiting the state of war for a witch-hunt and an uncontrolled showdown with those who do not share their opinions?  The answer to this question can be found in another question: have they demonstrated such willingness up to now?  The regime’s parties have been creating an atmosphere of paranoia regarding the fact that political groups (among which they point to independent media and the President of Montenegro, Milo Djukanovic) exist here which are ready to call in interventionist troops.

In other words, western threats of war have given the regime a pretext for renewed demonization and total elimination of pro-European groups in Serbia.  With this, the western threats to Yugoslavia have inflicted as much harm to the pro-European, liberal segment of the Serbian public as if bombing had already taken place.  If the renewed radicalization continues, all that remains is to look helplessly at what happens when instead of moderate solutions, extreme ones are chosen, and when nationalist radicalism, separatist nationalism with pacifist interventionism are all combined, each of which is being heralded impulsively by certain groups in Belgrade...  In states which are disintegrating or in which there is a belief that they are being threatened, it is difficult to protect even the most basic of human rights — despite the fact that humanitarians and policemen usually have their hands full in such situations.

With a minor correction: if in the recent past, at international conferences and in occasional texts written by our citizens, there was rash flirting with threats against the regime being possibly beneficial for avoiding bloodshed, now all that is gone in circumstances in which there are real possibilities of recruits, sons of Serbian mailmen, taxi drivers, farmers and tailors, being blown in the air.  In the situation which has developed, there is virtually no political subject (MP’s, regime journalists, etc.) who has not said his bit on the defense of the country should it be attacked.

If something unexpected does not happen, and in the Balkans they usually tend to happen, perhaps this chaotic situation will slowly calm down.  There are no serious conflicts, armed forces are actually withdrawing, and now even international agencies are confirming information that around 50,000 civilians have returned to their homes.  According to decisions adopted by Federal Parliament, it is stated that “activities (in Kosovo) have stopped, antiterrorist forces have returned to their bases, all parts of Kosovo and Metohija have been opened wide to humanitarian organizations, diplomats and journalists”, and that “conditions have been created for dialogue”, with the expectation that “dialogue will begin immediately.”

In the Parliamentary summaries it is indicated that FRY will guarantee “solutions for Kosovo and Metohija which will be achieved through dialogue, along with respect for territorial integrity and sovereignty of Serbia and FRY, in accordance with the constitutions of Serbia and FRY and international standards in the areas of civil rights and the rights of minorities, along with the equality of all citizens, national communities and ethnic groups in Kosovo.”

The exit door is just slightly open.  No — with a strong draft blowing, that door keeps slamming shut and opening up constantly.

Threats and Limitations

However, a declaration of a state of war does not boil down merely to readiness for action and mobilization.  Such an act brings the state and society into a special situation in which the authorities enjoy greater powers, and the citizens fewer rights.

What will halve a long-term effect on political life here can be found written in another place.  According to Article 99, Paragraph 11 of the Federal Constitution, acts adopted during states of war can limit, for as long that state lasts, certain human and civil rights and freedoms.  In many cases, such a broad formulation can mean the suspension of the human right of not being arrested without a court order (so-called Habeas Corpus).

Our Federal Constitution is explicit in the declaration that rights protected by articles 20,22,25,26,27,28,29 and 43 cannot be suspended.  This means that a declaration of a state of war cannot result in the suspension of equality among citizens based on race, nation, language, religion, sex or political orientation; it is not possible to suspend man’s integrity, his privacy and rights to privacy, the right to respecting the individual in a criminal or any other procedure, the right to protection against torture, demeaning punishment and handling; a man cannot be denied his right to appeal, cannot be sentenced for an act which before it was perpetrated was not foreseen in by the law, with the right to defense council in court being in force; the right to religious practice cannot be curbed.  In Article 30 of the Federal Constitution it is stated that, should the defense of FRY demand so, freedoms of movement can be limited; Article 32 states that the principle of privacy in mail correspondence can also be suspended...

What are the guarantees that under war conditions the mentioned rights would be protected?  What is suggested by the fact that this regime immediately instigated a wich-hunt?  During the process of deciding on whether to declare a state of war, certain politicians, for instance Vice-President of the Government of Serbia and Leader of Serbia’s Radicals, Vojislav Seselj, has announced repression against citizens of those state which would participate in aggression, against secessionist parties of Kosovo’s Albanians, and against independent media which he declared to be secret agencies.