Tight-Rope Walking

Did Milo Djukanovic commit to one thing in Belgrade, and do something quite different in Podgorica?  That is the question of the day in Podgorica.  All the more so since Djukanovic has not said a single word on the developments in the Supreme Defense Council session and the decisions adopted there, decisions which are being interpreted in various ways, with the public only being exposed to what was recorded and officially released by Slobodan Milosevic’s military cabinet.  After this, in his public address in Podgorica, Milo Djukanovic eschewed any mention of the Supreme Defense Council, but categorically stated that an attack by NATO forces should be avoided because it should not be permitted that bombs should fall on the citizens of Montenegro and Yugoslavia in order to save a government which cannot be saved.

Judging by the steady flow of information from well informed sources, the progress of the Supreme Defense Council session was marked by Milosevic’s, Djukanovic’s and Perisic’s speeches, while others, and especially the Bulatovics, Momir the Federal Premier and Pavle, the Federal Defense Minister, did not utter a single word.  According to the same sources, Djukanovic stated that there is no question on Kosovo remaining within Serbia and Yugoslavia, which means that Kosovo has not been lost for Yugoslavia. He added that it was high time for Milosevic to fulfill what he promised in the name of Yugoslavia to representatives of the international community, especially to Boris Yeltsin, as well as to fulfill what is contained in the documents in the possession of the international community. He urged Milosevic to obey the latest Security Council resolution.  It is inevitable that Albanians get autonomy in Kosovo, and without God knows how many victims and how much destruction, and without all the other consequences which Montenegro and Serbia would be faced with in the event of a showdown with the international community.  According to the same sources, Djukanovic stated that it is quite natural for a state to defend itself against unjustified attack, and that he did not know who in the country would be against entering into conflict with anyone in the world. He suggested to Milosevic that he should immediately address the public and state the readiness for receiving international representatives and give them the opportunity to personally see for themselves that, as Milosevic claims, the anti-terrorist forces in Kosovo have been reduced to peacetime levels.

Montenegro and its ruling coalition is in an especially delicate situation, and it is hardly surprising that amid the latest events so much diplomatic activity is taking place, along with sessions of the government and parliament of Montenegro.  Analysts assess that there is no essential difference in attitudes between Montenegrin government officials and institutions on the Kosovo issue, that is to say that the same opinions voiced by President Djukanovic appear to be widely adopted both in government and in parliament, so that there is no division in the ruling coalition.

The fact that Montenegro is officially against a conflict with the international community does not mean that it will be spared from eventual military intervention, because no single official actually asked for that. The removal from Montenegro of the army and its installations, that is to say the military targets, did not even enter the agenda.  There is still no reason for that, according to the well informed VREME sources, even though it is a fact that Montenegro has no control over the army. This is because the Supreme Defense Council has stopped meeting, with the exception of the single, recent meeting in which Milosevic, according to general assessment, wanted to strengthen his position. The loud message which was sent recently from Montenegro is that federal offices and the Federal Parliament contain a large number of Montenegrin officials who, however, have not been legitimately appointed by Montenegro.  Milosevic has still kept Federal Government under his control, which he has also done with Federal Courts, and now even with Federal Parliament, so that there is a clear intention of consolidating his position in the entire federal infrastructure without acknowledging the will of the citizens of Montenegro by refusing Djukanovic’s representatives from the Ruling Coalition in the Council of the Republics.  As things stand, Momir Bulatovic and his followers are firmly rooted in Federal Government, while the same situation is to be found in Federal Parliament, and as far as their opinions are concerned, they have nothing in common with the majority of Montenegro, that is to say, with the decision of the Parliament of Montenegro.  As far as Milosevic and Bulatovic are concerned, Montenegro in the form it is at the present continues to be unacceptable.  Both the one and the other recognized in the Kosovo crisis an opportunity of provoking official Montenegro into a move which would support their old accusation that the leadership of Montenegro is anti-Serbian, anti-Yugoslav, and traitorous.  Furthermore, in Montenegro it has been assessed that Djukanovic and his Government have no influence on the most sensitive question - the Army. Although this has not been stated yet by the heads of government, right from the Vice-President of Parliament, Rifat Rastoder, down to the Deputy Prime Minister Novak Kilibarda, it could be heard that General Perisic, the Supreme Commander of the Yugoslav Army, is no longer consulted on the Army’s involvement in Kosovo, and that he has been altogether removed, while Kilibarda demanded that in the event of a possible showdown, the generals and the soldiers be placed under Montenegrin command.  Admittedly, Kilibarda did not back up this statement in the capacity of the Montenegrin Deputy PM but rather as the Leader of the People’s Party.

However, it is a fact that the number of people in Montenegro who are willing to fight with anyone is on the wane, while the Government clearly stated that it is against NATO military intervention, but also that Milosevic should fulfill his promises, convinced that everything can be salvaged at the negotiating table, in the same way that it can all be lost on the battlefield.