Where is Serbia Heading?

I am simply not sure whether this whole business with the bombs and “the last minute rescue” was a movie or happened for real. Certainly dramaturgy was at work, probably because no one is still willing to believe in a reality which does not look like a movie.  The two main actors, for whom this is not the first appearance together, played against each other quite well, bringing the thriller to a happy end.  They spent so much time alone and has such broad authorities that the whole thing looked a bit like their personal vendetta.  In the end they bowed to general applause, each one from his particular audience.

Both actors had their own evil forces: Holbrooke had NATO, while Milosevic had Seselj.  NATO made bomb threats, while Seselj threatened with terror. Seselj and his Government answered the NATO preparations and the active NATO order with their own infamous Decree.  However, the bombs did not fall, but the independent media is being closed down and persecuted, and all after an agreement has been released which “removes intervention.”

There is no logic or political reasoning here.  If martial law has not been declared at the time when the threat of war was greatest, how come is it that the practice of censorship and the spirit of marital law have taken off ground after the removal of the direct threat?

For now there are two possible answers to this question.  One is that Milosevic’s regime is really decisively proceeding to remove all remaining democratic appearances, precisely because of concessions which he had to make on Kosovo.  Such a reaction is not unexpected, because that regime harbors long-standing animosity toward everything that comes from the West, and it considers democratic appearances, the opposition and independent media for enemies from within whom it was forced into accepting. The staunchest regime ideologues probably really believe that these are all spies, traitors, vultures, and are congratulating themselves on having put up with them at all up to now.

Thus, if Milosevic had agreed to a reasonable agreement on Kosovo, and if on that occasion he is sending himself postcards and telegrams of support, that does not mean that he does not feel defeated.  It seems to me that he, all in all, did not fair so badly, but he certainly did not get what he fought for and what he strove toward.  Otherwise the greatest pressure by the biggest power ever known to the world would not have been necessary.  If now he is angry and embittered, he could easily decide to take out his frustrations on those whom he considers allies of his enemies.

The other possible explanation is somewhat better and would indicate that the increased enthusiasm for censorship can be attributed to the Radicals who feel that the agreement on Kosovo threatens their position in the Government.  Seselj took a big head start in this bombing crisis, evidently dominating the Serbian Government and pushing it with all his strength into a conflict with NATO and with “spies and traitors”, and appeared to be getting ready for a final attack on the very top of the Government. An agreement which is unpleasant for Milosevic would have to be “absolutely unacceptable” for him.

Thus, the attack on the media could be a continuation of the Radical’s attempt at taking over the political scene, offering Milosevic liquidation of their common enemies.  But such a present is laced with poison.  Seselj would appear as someone with bigger muscle power who is sending the police into Belgrade’s media editorial offices, while Milosevic’s knees are shaking before NATO.  I believe that at the first opportune moment he would jump on Milosevic himself.

It is not out of the question that the two of them forged some sort of gentlemen’s agreement on peaceful handing over of power once Milosevic’s mandate expires.  Could Seselj wait for that is a question which only he can answer, but with him in power, Serbia’s future looks very bleak at best.  Of course, that also concerns the Kosovo problem.  If the international community is uncertain as to whether Milosevic will fulfill his obligations with regard to Kosovo, and if it wants to know whether it can believe him, it is best merely to observe the development of the situation in Belgrade, than to gather information on ground.

Seselj’s remaining in power is the best test of the readiness for a serious, peaceful approach to Kosovo.  If Milosevic is not capable of getting rid of him and making a deeper democratic turn in Serbia, no one should hope for any sort of stabilization in Kosovo.  The agreement with Holbrooke, whichever way it is taken, presumes an attempt at building some sort of Serbian-Albanian coexistence.  The prospects for that are in any case hopeless, especially after the explosion of violence in the last twelve months, and it is completely senseless to invest any kinds of efforts in that direction for as long as the Government of Serbia includes among its members a notorious fascist.

It is not merely an issue of his attitude to Albanians, but also to the West which is now sending its people there and is assuming responsibility for the fate of Kosovo.  I am not able to imagine a conversation and cooperation between any foreign diplomat and the Vice-President of the Serbian Government, who does not miss an opportunity of expressing his profound hatred and revulsion for everything western.  He probably does not accept it even in a geographic sense, and would probably much rather call it “contrary to the east.”

Of course, we are not obligated to be enthusiastic imitators of everything western, neither in a cultural nor in a political sense.  Beside the evident civilizational progress, there is much self-contentment there, attended by silliness and searching.  It is true that Russia is being approached unintelligently and badly in general; it is also true that there is tension between Europe and America; it is also true that America is having a difficult time in its new role as the only remaining superpower — but anyone with any brains should have more cause for worry than malice, given such a landscape.

However, Serbia, especially in Seselj’s interpretation, is building its future on the expectation of the rest of the world falling apart.  Even if such a miracle were to happen, what would Serbia, in God’s name, stand to gain by it?  Of course, this is merely delusion of the people and exploitation of fear, stupidity and ignorance in the most cynical and malicious form imaginable.  But, when that fascistic conundrum takes root, only force can root it out.  And it is best with domestic, homemade force — that is, if it is not too late.
As far as Kosovo itself is concerned, the agreement reached by Milosevic and Holbrooke will probably improve the humanitarian situation.  All else is extremely uncertain.  It would be a complete surprise if individual attacks by KLA were not to be continued, wile even the more peaceful Albanians will dither considerably on whether to behave in the agreed upon fashion.  This agreement merely offers some breathing space and a postponement, but even that is more than nothing.

I fear that the TV spectacles of Holbrooke’s convincing and NATO’s threats is as much as the international community, such as it is at the present, can do in this situation.  It could easily happen that Kosovo becomes quickly forgotten and abandoned, even though now the possibility has been opened for long-term stabilization.  If any long terms interest anyone, perhaps it is the right time to offer Serbia some prospect of positive compensation.

It is true that Milosevic demonstrated that positive inducements have far less effect on him than threats, but it seems to me that this episode with Holbrooke also showed that it is important to occupy all his time and to keep him away from the morbid influences of the Radicals and Yugoslav Left.  Of course, it would be easier for everyone to sign him off, but it is clear that this would merely create more problems.  Thus, it would be worth while finding diplomats who know how to handle such difficult cases, and to let them visit him and call on him on an ongoing basis.  Otherwise, in company with which he is surrounded, it is a complete miracle that he is managing at all to keep any touch with reality.