Crossing Off the Zeros

The Federal Republic of Yugoslavia is confronted with international economic sanctions. In this situation, there are quite a few businessmen who are openly announcing or just hinting at "channels", "schemes" and similar business practices. This leads us to at least two conclusions. The first is that they are not fully grasping the situation and that they naively believe that the blockade is full of cracks, and, secondly, that it's only up to Serbian traditional cleverness to continue handling things as if nothing much has happened. The second possibility, which does not exclude the first, indicates the existence of well-developed Mafia channels of a Latin-American kind, i.e. the connection between the government and "successful businessmen".

However, there are some dissenting opinions. Mr. Djordje Romoda, the general manager of a manufacturing company from Kula (Vojvodina), says that he and the workers have just received a dismissal notice: "Slobodan Milosevic fired us. He's been working on it for quite a while (...) I have problems with the workers, for I claim that we are broke, and the President is saying that we are not." Mr. Romoda says that his factory is facing a close-down, because his foreign partners, who have been buying 80% of the factory's production, can wait for up to a week only. Therefore, all employees will given paid leave for as long the company has any money.

A day after the sanctions were adopted, President Milosevic said at his polling station that Yugoslavia will respond to the embargo with the truth. There are at least two truths in Serbia which simply cannot coexist. After his initial statement, the Serbian President indicated that he is moving towards the truth by not rejecting the possibility of his resignation, but only a day later he resumed his ordinary activities, as if nothing had happened.

It seems that we should search for the truth, announced as a response to the blockade, in Moscow, or try to find it in the Serbian PM's "smart" public appearances. It is quite clear now that the Serbian leadership had been promised that Russia will veto possible sanctions in the Security Council. However, serious analysts had formerly detected reliable indications that the Russian representative will raise his hand in favor of the sanctions against Yugoslavia. This gives rise to a separate, but extremely important, question as to whether the Serbian leadership, together with its experts, is able to perceive the reality at all, and to make its decisions accordingly. For example, in front of TV cameras, the Serbian PM sent a message to Moscow, which says that individual decisions will not jeopardize the historical friendship between the two peoples, and that the Russian government should base its decisions upon truth, and, ultimately, calls upon the Russian people to make Mr. Yeltzin and the others come to their senses, otherwise...

Concerning one's senses, just a day before the said message, Mr. Bozovic was explaining to local and foreign journalists that "a collapse due to sanctions is out of the question." Mr. Bozovic's argument for such reasoning was that the Yugoslav economy is not like the Bulgarian or Romanian economy, and that it has a completely different structure and potentials. Commenting on the PM's statement, one of the journalists, known as one of the top experts in domestic and world economy, said that the problem for the new Yugoslavia's economy lies in very fact Mr. Bozovic cited as an advantage. The Bulgarian and Romanian economies are self-sufficient, while Yugoslavia has to exchange at least half of its national product with the world. This would not have been easy even without the sanctions, if we take into account that the new Yugoslavia's economy and the economies of former Yugoslav republics (who are either presently at war with Belgrade, or whose economies are devastated) are extremely interdependent.

It is simply shocking to even take note of new evidence that this is the catastrophe towards which the regime has been leading the country, day by day, for years. It's of little avail to resort to "cosmic justice" or to indicate that the innocent (the voters?) will pay the highest price. Excuses based on the allegedly new report by Boutros Ghali are weak, because it has all been written in the previous Resolution, and it also stands in the introduction to the Security Council's Resolution by which the sanctions were imposed. Instead of a conclusion, here is part of an article by a professor from the Belgrade Faculty of Agriculture (published in the BORBA daily):

"An economy which is not functioning is immune to economic boycott. This is no consolation for Serbia, for its economic development demands fresh capital. Serbia's economy has been brought to its knees, and its population is facing communal kitchens and work brigades for the reconstruction of what will be devastated, while the youngest and the most gifted are buying one-way train tickets. Therefore, it is simply not serious to say that the sanctions will not affect Serbia."