The Final Techniques

The finale has begun of Milosevic's five year-long efforts to postpone the democratic transformation of Belgrade and requiem for the old socialism through the Yugoslav explosion and Greater Serbia. He has united all the Yugoslav peoples, Slav nations in Europe and the whole world against the nationalistic paranoia of a universal anti-Serb conspiracy. Now even the most faithful are abandoning him: priests, academics, Orthodox pan-Slavists, the nationalistic opposition, leaving only the fascists and hypocritical Socialists. Tomorrow he will be abandoned by the Montenegrins, the police will betray him and the army will move over to the democratic opposition because it hasn't any planes to combat the "phantoms" of an international army and it needs new money. Maybe the regime will be left with the faithful and fanatical Krajina Serbs around Belgrade which he is keeping for the settling of accounts with Sumadija (central Serbia), Vojvodina and middle-class Terazije (central and the oldest Belgrade quarter). These are the dead watch that is buried with a pharaoh.

The Americans will probably not wait to see the exhaustion of the economy of Serbia and destitution of its inhabitants. Christmas is far off, and too much misery and time for regime propaganda could push a proud people towards their leader instead of turning them away. The November presidential elections force Bush to hit a few months earlier or else he will be unable to justify the trade blockade and fuss he has raised over the Belgrade regime. The world will not be satisfied only with Milosevic's retreat from Bosnia-Herzegovina, but with his fall in Serbia. To give him credit, he still maneuvers well: he has pushed Kecmanovic and Pejanovic into the Sarajevo Presidency so that he can act tomorrow against the irresponsible Karadzic and say that Serbia respects the legal executive Bosnian government and not the separatist and rocket launching "Serbian Republic of B&H". A bellow of derision and disappointment will then be heard in Belgrade. Everyone will talk of yet another betrayal - but there are few who will say that the senseless dissipation began when someone shouted: "The borders are the problem, not the system!"

Still, Milosevic hasn't the guts. He does not dare recognize an independent Bosnia-Herzegovina, let alone announce that Serbia will reject unification with any of the territory Serbian separatists want to extract. This is why Belgrade is cornered. He incited the Serbs outside Serbia in order to bring about a change of borders or add foreign territory to Serbia - a reason in itself for international military revenge - and now he can no longer renounce this publicly, because Serbia and the hundreds of thousands of refugees and dead will ask him: "Did you raise us up just to drop us?" If he leaves them, Belgrade will react; if he doesn't, Belgrade will still react; if he goes on with the war, Washington will react. Even if he betrays his Socialists and runs away to Cyprus, they'll get him quicker than anyone else. He has to play the whole game in Belgrade.

Milosevic is aware that the end is near. He's too good a technician not to know that the speed of a desperate attempt to meddle in Kosovo, Sandzak and Vojvodina will not be enough to beat the speed of foreign intervention. He might enter into the final battle but he already knows he's lost it. The political solution to Kosovo and Vojvodina by the CSCE has already been announced: special status. In practice, this comes down to transforming Serbia from a centralist state to a federal one. This is the best way for the CSCE to federalize Croatia as well in order to resolve the status of the Serbian Krajinas without affecting its territorial integrity. If Milosevic were to have the courage to abandon the absolutely deluded idea of a "unified Serbia", then the federalization of Serbia could precondition the guarantee of the big powers, particularly the USA, Russia, France and Britain, that the territorial integrity of Serbia will remain untouched. In a word, the more autonomy in Serbia, the more demands can be made on behalf of the Serbs in Croatia and Bosnia-Herzegovina. This is the best way to get out of a tight corner and leave peacefully.

In this way the big powers would be given enough responsibility to ensure the integrity of Serbia and its concessions instead of it carrying their curse that a dictator and keeper of national oppression can not be slung off. And Tudjman in Zagreb would have no choice. Just as Milosevic brought him, so he would take him down.

Were Milosevic to hand in his resignation before a government of national salvation is formed in Belgrade, Serbia is threatened by a military dictatorship and lawless junta. It would be joined by the armed terror of a demoralized vagrants and frustrated reservists. Although many expect the President to bend his head and pull the curtain on his career, his political nature gives no indication of any tendency towards sacrificing himself for the sake of the nation. If he were to start talks with the opposition about the forming of a government of national salvation, he could save himself, in particular from the humiliation of escape or confrontation with a general protest led by the opposition, academics, the Patriarch, Karadjordjevic and the University. It will not longer be a question of whether anyone agrees with his war policy or not, but that Serbia, from a choice between him and itself, chooses itself.

In Belgrade power can be taken from the Socialists exclusively by peaceful means and with the broadest anti-regime coalition of all democratic forces. Milosevic and his group have no answer to massive civil disobedience. In the case of the use of force, foreign intervention would be almost certain. And the regime has no finesse because it took over in 1987 with political violence and lawlessness.