Domino Effect

Even though very little is visible on the surface, it appears that the epicenter of political power is experiencing intense tremors. The political tremors in Belgrade are at the very least as intense as the physically real ones in the seismically active Mionica, near Valjevo. The only difference being that there will be many more victims in Belgrade in this political seismic activity.

The Chief of the State Security Service, Jovica Stanisic, who is the man who certainly knows the most about Serbian secrets (including the ones about his employers-until-yesterday), has been replaced from his job last week — virtually without any explanation. People who are versed in this issue say that in the Service, which was governed until recently by Stanisic’s people, a major cleanup began immediately the day after in which nearly all of Stanisic’s men lost their former jobs. Political seismographs registered considerable movement on the ground occupied by the military, and claim that the departure of the Commander of the Yugoslav Air Force are just the beginning.

Certain agencies reported last week (on the day when Stanisic was replaced) that at the session of the Chief Council of SPS, held on that day, the vice-president of that party, Vilorad Vucelic, will also be replaced. The next day, SPS itself denied that anything other than Kosovo appeared on the agenda of that session. Least of all party reshuffling. However, both the press agencies and the SPS were right. Officially, Vucelic still continues to be vice-president of SPS, most likely until the next session of the Chief Council of that party. Unofficially, he no longer does this job, especially after the recent, it could be said, "farewell" meeting with Slobodan Milosevic.

KOSOVO CURVE: Sources from this party also say that together with Vucelic, the Executive Council of SPS will also be saying goodbye to Radovan Pankov, while a similar fate awaits Mihalj Kertes, member of the Head Committee of this party and Director of the Federal Customs. Stories about their downfalls have different forwards, but they are most often connected with the name Jovica Stanisic and the total eclipse by the "red" wing of the party. Supposedly, Stanisic’s fall should result in a so-called domino effect and contribute to the downfall of all those who were close to him in various capacities, or who charged their batteries on his power source.

The sweeping broom of the staff cleanup will most likely not stop at the name Vucelic, Pankov and Kertes, which are mentioned in SPS these days mostly in an undertone as former prominent party officials. There are even premonitions that this sharp Kosovo curve could see the departure of the biggest number of names which have a high rating in SPS, a party that thus far managed to maintain its monolithic structure and to retain homogeneity at each of the other curves it went through. In some about-town calculations surrounding Milorad Vucelic, there is mention that on his way out Vucela could bring down with him the "liberal wing of SPS" (up to now fairly invisible), and could form a party of his own. For instance, a sisterly counterpart to Djukanovic’s DPS. Even though in the coalition atmosphere of the Radicals and JUL, nearly the entire SPS appears as a group of moderates and "liberals", such opinion should not be carried too far. The more so since all those who left SPS and Milosevic’s gravitational field thus far, automatically lost all influence and importance on the political scene. Rare attempts by such outcasts to form parties of their own mostly ended in failure, and it is hard to believe that Vucelic would risk something of this sort.

BOSNIA CURVE: When several years ago Slobodan Milosevic decided to put away the maps of Serbian lands, which he had peered at for some time, and to change course away from Pale, right up to the imposition of sanctions in Republika Srpska, many people expected considerable dispersal among the ranks of the ruling party. However, it turned out that the number of those who did not adapt to the new political currents was fairly insignificant. Shortly after the signing of the Dayton Agreement, Ph.D.s Borisav Jovic and Mihailo Markovic fell from the top of the party. As a member of the staunch nationalist current in SPS, Milorad Vucelic also fell at that time, having occupied positions of Director of Radio Television Serbia and Chief of a group of MP’s from SPS. He immediately went into private business after that. Among those who became part of "party recycling" at the time were Milomir Minic and Radovan Pankov. Still, everything passed without great shakeups, while Ph.D. Jovic himself later wrote that he was replaced at a fifteen minute session of the party chiefs to which he was not even invited.

The socialists were faced by their second great trial after the local elections in the Fall of 1996. After losing power in the big cities and initial attempts at weaseling out of that, and then with the passage of the lex specialis in order to acknowledge the will of the people, post factum, the party fell into a deep crisis. Once again everything ended without great shakeups, with the former Mayor of Belgrade, Nebojsa Covic, numbering among the party outcasts because of his support for acknowledging the election loss, alongside the top socialist at the time, Nisa Mile Ilic, who lost out because of attempts to transform the loss into a victory. Somewhat later, in April of last year, the party top was changed, which was explained at the time as necessary staff renewal. Three party vice-presidents were replaced: Nikola Sainovic, Bosko Perosevic and Slavicavica Djukic-Dejanovic. Their shoes were filled by Milorad Vucelic, Dusan Matkovic and Zivadin Jovanovic. On the very same day, April 27, 1997, Radovan Pankov, Ratomir Vico, Zeljko Simic and Dragoljub Milanovic were co-opted into the SPS Executive Council.

There was never too much fuss raised over those who came and went. The political resurrection of Vucelic, Pankov and Minic served as the best proof of the thesis that no one is ever completely cast out of SPS, and that all those who quietly accept demotion, with full loyalty to the party leader, can expect one day to be rehabilitated into an even higher party position. Falling out and not adapting to the situation at one curve does not meant that you can’t hop on the train sometime later. Especially if you realize on time that in this party (as in any other one, for that matter) the carriers of bad news are in great favor, just like those who try to stick out too much. It could be that Stanisic and Vucelic in their positions lost sight of these golden rules. Especially of the rule regarding bad news.

USABILITY: Vucelic’s return last year was explained, above all, as a wise move on the part of Jovica Stanisic who supposedly suggested to the very party top that instead of the shady, assembly line aparatchiks it would be far better to appoint as party front man the far more skillful Milorad Vucelic. At that time it could be heard that it was becoming ever more difficult for Stanisic to cover up for the "catastrophic staff decisions of the socialists" or that through his "moles" he was once again tearing up the already torn up opposition ranks.

Vucelic’s usability was very high for the SPS at that time: Vucelic was on good terms with the leadership of Montenego, especially with Djukanovic, who began showing increasingly serious signs of disobedience; he was also useful in contacts with the democratic opposition at a time when it appeared that cooperation with it was inevitable; he was also on good terms with Serbian intellectuals who were angry with Milosevic when he began to dissolve the Serbian national selfhood in the concoction prepared in JUL; it appeared that he could be quite a successful presidential candidate and opponent to Seselj... However, his resurrection lasted for a very short time. According to one version, Milosevic did not approve of his "universality", according to others, his ambition, his exceeding closeness to the revolting Djukanovic, and even the leakage to Podgorica of certain secret plans forged in Belgrade. All that lasted but a few months, after which Vucelic only nominally continued to fulfill his role of vice-president of SPS, while the real inner party authority was handed back to those who were marked as the main culprits in the local elections loss of two years ago. Last time Vucelic was removed from the party top as a supporter of "a hard national line", while this time he’s off as a "liberal".

Even though at this moment in SPS itself, Milorad Vucelic is considered the most serious candidate for execution, the list of those who could join him appears to be much longer. These days party heads are trying to explain the basis of the Kosovo policy throughout Serbia, trying very hard not to use the very unpopular word referendum in their vocabulary. At the same time, all party organizations are intensely conducting analyses, with special emphasis on the activities of every member of the Head and Executive Committees of SPS in the last two years. That is why it is quite possible that some future staff changes could be interpreted as insufficient enthusiasm in doing one’s job, and not, for instance, as eventual disagreement with the policies which are presently being conducted with regard to Kosovo.

Individuals from SPS claim that JUL stands behind every dismissal — from the chief of State Security to the ones that are expected in this party. The socialists, who are keeping a distance with their coalition partners on either side say jokingly that "they have been pregnant in the seventh month for a very long time now" and that it is difficult to predict whether the situation will give birth to anything. The only thing that is certain for now is that Jovica Stanisic has departed. And that Milorad Vucelic is being readied.