The Social Dead End

The last Yugoslav social structure owed its collapse to a lack of preparations and concrete solutions for its decades-long ethnic, socioeconomic, political, and religious variations. The current social structure inherited a part of these problems, including more severe economic, social, and political tensions. Unemployment, impoverishment, social uncertainty, an increase in diseases, decrease in life expectancy and standard of living, tremendous housing problems, a rise in crime, etc., do not only remain unresolved, but are nowhere in the solutions of current political discourse. They merely pile up with no end result.

This evaluation was given by Prof. Milosav Milosavljavic, at the Political Science Faculty, where he also lays out the state of Yugoslav society in his new book “Social Policy in Transition.” The main argument which he presents centers around the lack of any social programs on the agendas of all political parties, government or opposition. The study was conducted by a team of experts at the Center for the Study of Policy Alternatives – Center for Policy Studies (CPA/CPS). The purpose of the study is to offer politicians an agenda for a social policy which could be realistically implemented, and which would help Yugoslavia steer away from the mistakes made by Russia and other states in transitions. It attempts to make a powerful case in support of reforms put out by G-17 economists, which should be implemented with little delay here in our society. “Vreme” will present the more salient parts of the study, in which it hopes to bring political attention to the issues of everyday life.

Marina Blagojevic:
THE TRAUMATIZED POPULATION AND ITS DEVELOPMENT.

It can be concluded that the general population has undergone trauma due to the social regression of the 1990’s. There has been a steady increase in the average age, climbing from 29.3 to 35.7 years. Serbia’s average age is at 35, while Kosovo’s mean ranks near 25 (1992). The average in the third Yugoslavia has grown from 29.3 to 35.7 (1993). The percentage of retirees has increased from 7.5 to 12 percent (1995). The intensive process of an older population has a drastic implication of more people dependent on social services. Their numbers have grown from 757,000 to 1,169,000.

Certain segments of this effect have been more severely affected. Rural areas, for example, have been left without a young population, particularly young women. The migration into Serbia from Croatia and Bosnia-Herzegovina in the 1980’s numbered to 600,000. It does not however, mildly compare to the shocking demographic shifts which Serbia has experienced throughout the 1990’s.

Migration into the country has inevitably increased the percentage of Serbs within Serbia, something which has yet to be documented by statisticians. The “brain drain” - 350,000 highly educated cadres are a particular problem, as far as emigration is concerned. (Bolacin , 1995)

The number of marriages has dropped by 15% in five years. The lower rate of marriage (in central Serbia from 6.1 to 5.1 per 1000 persons between 1990-96, and in Vojvodina 6.0 to 5.4). Pairingly, the number of divorces has decreased as well. The conclusion may not lead to necessarily better marital relations, but rather to the increased dependency between the marriage partners.
 

Berislav Sefer: Social Security and the right to work.
THE OMNIPOTENCE OF THE STATE

The omnipotent elite, aided by an unequal distribution in wealth and resources, controls the employed and the retired. Due to its constant presence in recent years, the myth of making matters worse without their intervention has become created. The direct consequences are the stagnation of transitional reforms.

The Alarm Clock of the Hungry

Necessary average work hours needed to purchase the following products:

   1989  1997   Index
Oil (l)   49 min  1h 42min  208
Trout (kg)   36 min   6h 4min  1011
Heating Oil   10 min   3h 36min  360
School Notebook  7 min   26 min   371
Refrigerator   17 days  82 days  483

By international comparison, real wages are exceptionally low. In 1997, the average salary was 200DM, or $125. In Europe, the lowest hourly wage is at $5 in Portugal. The highest is in Germany, at $15 per hour, in Italy $9, and Greece $7. Yugoslavia, vis-à-vis Greece had an hourly wage at about a tenth of Greece.

It must also be noted that 300,000-350,000 employed workers do not receive regular pay. Real wages are steadily dropping (they are at 70 percent of the levels they were in the late 1980's). Wages are paid irregularly, and many times under the pressures of a general strike. Let us mention not only that 15% of the work force does not receive pay, but over 50% earn a wage below the national average.

The corruption index is at 7.4, according to the British magazine "The Economist" The highest rating is 9.0. this is by far the largest corruption rating in all the transition states of the former Yugoslavia, or Hungary (1.2), and Albania (5.7), which are also considered to be in transition.

Gradimir Zajic: The position and social rights of the unemployed:
"EMPLOYMENT SECURITY"

In general, the majority of workers support a strategy which does not introduce excessive reforms into the system. The move is aimed mostly at preserving what little security current benefits of employment provide, which does not necessarily provide the right to be paid. In 1990, the subsidized surplus in the work force was between 20 and 25%.
It is therefore easy to conclude that real unemployment rate was above the nominal figure of 19.7%. The real GDP between 1990 and 1996 has fallen by 50%, and official unemployment has risen by 12.7% (posarac, 1998).

At present, the Employment Bureau in Serbia estimates that 25-30% of the work force is in excess and subsidized. the managerial structure in firms confirm these findings. On the basis of the technological coefficient of the industrial Capacity of Yugoslavia, it is estimated that the number of people employed is in surplus of 65%. therefore, using these calculations, the real unemployment in Yugoslavia is estimated at 47.7%. Using the economic activity of in the public and private sectors between 1989 and 1996, the average excess work force has been at approximately 622,200 workers.

Having taken a passive stance to Yugoslavia's economic dynamics, the drastic cuts and irregular pay has forced firms to send workers on mandatory leave. The number of such cases in 1996 stands at 300.000. At many points during sanctions, the number soared up to million. The number of people actively seeking work was at 814,000 in 1997, as opposed to 207,000 in 1989.

Unemployment has risen by over a third. The official unemployment figure has thus risen from 17.9% in 1989 to 25,9% in 1997. In 1997, a third of the unemployed are younger than 25, and 22% between the ages of 25 and 30. A majority of 56.1% of the unemployed is under 30. If we take the number of unemployed between 30 and 40, we can conclude that over three quarters of the unemployed are in their most productive years.
 

Berislav Sefer: Models of social policy within a market economy and a pluralist political system

National markets are losing their significance. They have been replaced by increase in productivity and drive for short-term profit.

Economic power of states and trans-national corporations (in blns of USD)

country/TNC   The total GDP or corporate earnings
Indonesia   174,6
General motors    168,8
Turkey     149,8
Denmark    146,1
Ford     137,1
South Africa    123,3
Toyota     111,1
Exxon     110,0
Shell     109,8
Norway    109,6
Poland     92,8
Portugal    91,6
Yugoslavia    15

*Source: Human development report 1997, UNDP, New York
*Yugoslavia's GDP is based on am optimistic projection for fiscal 1997.

Mirjana Prazic: The Implementation of health care benefits

There has been a rise in reports of hospitals not admitting patients, except in cases of emergency, despite having referrals from their doctors and approval from their insurance to do so. There have also been cases where people under insurance have had to buy medical equipment needed for their own needs to the hospital, since various medical institutions do not have them.

Between 1991-1995, the number of doctor's visits has decreased by 35%. In 1991, the average number of visits per person was at 7.5, and dropped to 6.5 by 1995.Drinking water in 6 regions had been analyzed, and found that bacterial contamination had increased by 40%, and chemical pollution had risen three to five times. Going by the figures of the Health Institute of Serbia, 49.4% of samples found micro biological contamination in city sewers, and chemical pollution in 37.5% of samples in 1994. The investigation of foodstuffs has shown that an average of 36.8% of samples tested were substandard, and in particular categories of foodstuffs, as many as 68% of samples tested were considered tainted by bacteria. The increase in food poisoning can be explained by the higher tendencies to eat food directly from markets, and less eating out n restaurants, where the quality of the former is hardly under scrutiny.

The rate of disease from chronic diseases, as well as the mortality rate among the general population, has significantly increased between 1986-1995. Rate of Malignant diseases has increased form 1.3% in 1986 to 1.5% in 1995, diabetes (3.8-6.7), psychosis (2.4-2.8, hypertension (52.4-54.7) and coronary diseases (5.4-5.8). Up until 1990, the mortality rate was falling by 9,3 ppm, while by the end of 1995, it rose to 10 ppm.

Between 1985-1990, 150-185 murders had been reported. In 1991, 233 murders had been reported, and in 1992 and 1993, over 300 murders had been committed. 50-60% of murders take place in the age group of 25-54.Suicide accounted for 1350-1500 deaths between the period of 1986-1990.
During the period of sanctions, over 1700 suicides per year took place, mostly of people over the age of 55.

Ljiljana Mijanovic: Social stratification, pauperization and social protection

Poverty :Only 35% of Yugoslavs was capable of meeting their basic needs in the first half of 1997. A third was unable to meet subsistence level needs, while close to 500,000 were living in conditions of poverty.

Poverty incidence – poor: 462.676, pauperized: 6.186.268number of people in regions which live in conditions of poverty and impoverishment (extreme poverty)

Region  Paupers  Subsistence Substandard Total
Central Serbia  181.969 1.734.386 1.757.447 3.673.429
Vojvodina  129.216  419.398  823.387  1.372.001
Kosovo  147.330  455.330  283.658  886.318
Serbia   458.242  2.609.014  2.864.492  5.931.748
Montenegro  4.434   90.302   159.698  254.520
Yugoslavia  462.676  2.699.406  3.024.186  6.186.268

The threshold of absolute poverty is considered the inability to meet half of a family's basic needs. Subsistence is defined as meeting all the basic needs Substandard poverty is considered as unsatisfactory finances, not meeting the 150% of all basic needs. The total number of poor are an addition of all poverty groups.

Srecko Mihajlovic: Socio-psychological factors of transformation in social policy

PASSIVE LOYALTY

In relation to the government's social policy, citizens can be grouped into two categories of behavior: civically active or loyally passive. The basic characteristic of passive loyalty is waiting for help. It is awaited, and expected. Did you at any time need for someone to help you, materially or otherwise

Help was necessary for    help sought   help received
55% of semiskilled workers    14    7
50% of housewives     15    10
48% of farmers      13    7
48% of clerks with secondary school   7    4
47% of workers in the social sector   8    5
46% of retired people     11    5
45% of technicians     10    6
44% of Q and HQ workers    9    5
43% of workers in private sector   8    3
40% of unemployed     20    13
40% of experts with vocational schools   8    6
39% of small businessmen    11    7
37% of students     3    1
(Q – qualified, HQ –highly qualified)

Cited Sources: Centar za proucavanje alternativa & Socijalna misao, Beograd, 1998). Ekspertski tim CPA: prof. dr Milosav Milosavljevic, profesor Fakulteta politickih nauka u Beogradu; dr Marina Blagojevic sociolog, docent, Filozofski fakultet, Beograd); mr Miroslav Brkic (asistent, Fakultet politickih nauka, Beograd); prof. dr Mijat Damjanovic (do skora profesor na Fakultetu politickih nauka u Beogradu); mr Gorana Krstic (samostalni savetnik u Saveznom zavodu za statistiku); mr Srecko Mihajlovic (Institut druãtvenih nauka, Beograd); dr Ksenija Petovar (sociolog, Arhitektonski fakultet, Beograd); Ljiljana Mijanovic (sociolog, gradski centar za socijalni rad, Beograd); mr Mirjana Prazic pravnik, Republicki zavod za zdravstveno osiguranje, Beograd); prof. dr Bozidar Raicevic (ekonomista, Ekonomski fakultet, Beograd); dr Luka Todorovic (pravnik, Beograd); prof. dr Borislav Sefer, profesor, Beograd); Gradimir Zajic (sociolog, Institut za socioloãka i kriminoloãka istrazivanja, Beograd); Milan Nikolic (direktor CPA\CPS, Beograd).