Made in USA

The opposition in Serbia just got the reinforcements it had waited on in vain for years.  This week Washington officially registered in the Against Milosevic Club, acknowledging in this way that, until now, through all these unhappy years, it had been seriously counting on him.  Of course, better late than never, but this lateness cost an awful lot.  There was too much death and destruction going on while the biggest power was waited upon to come to the conclusion that “In the past decade Milosevic was at the center of every Yugoslav crisis.”

Many did not live to see this day, many escaped, gave up, lost all hope or simply joined him.  In the meantime, entire peoples have been left high and dry, while Serbs have been driven to madness.  In the meantime, all faith in democracy, the law, the system, in rights and reason has been lost.

Milosevic’s Serbia has been reduced to Seselj and JUL.  America itself was not able to stop all this, but in the beginning it didn’t even try, choosing later on to go with Milosevic.
The opposition, which Washington will support from here on in, had its bright moments, but now is not in the best of conditions, so that the strength of internal resistance is clearly not the reason behind America’s change of heart with regard to Milosevic.  But before all else, it is really worth taking a look at whether this is really a final turnaround.  Namely, it could be understood that the State Department’s position is merely part of public pressure exerted on Belgrade in order for it to soften its attitude toward Hill’s plan for Kosovo, and that if Milosevic were to swallow this, he could once again become a “factor of stability.”

However, I do not believe that this is the case this time.  On this occasion Washington committed itself all too clearly, which should mean that Milosevic’s time is up for all concessions and that no one like Holbrooke will be coming to visit any longer.  It appears that this negotiator, who became famous by getting Milosevic to bow down, has somehow gone out of favor in Washington.  It probably became clear to someone that Milosevic’s concessions are always only temporary or halfhearted, or both, so that even Holbrooke’s successes are more glamorous than actual.

However, it is also not unimaginable that Washington has become worried because of Seselj’s initiative for uniting Serbia, Russia and Belarus.  To us, that might appear silly, but a superpower must be wary.  In any case, that would not be the first time that different peoples, especially if they are desperate like all of the above, would take up some silly cause.  In fact, no one deludes themselves with something that is particularly reasonable, while America is clearly still worried about the possibility that Russia might once again take off in some direction.

It appears that the latest dismissals of the Army’s and the Security Service’s heads, along with the stifling of the media, have only confirmed Washington’s suspicions that Milosevic is bracing for a feisty battle and that he remains a sworn enemy of everything which could in any way look like Western values.  It is likely that they got tired of having to deal with him with no end in sight, especially as he is clearly pushing for the opening of a crisis with Montenegro, even before the one in Kosovo has yet settled.
All in all, America has promised that it will no longer extinguish local fires with the aid of the top arsonist, but that it will devote its attention to him.  He could try to prolong his lifetime and to enter the game once again by, let us say, sacrificing Seselj, which would certainly be well received.  It is a big question whether that would be enough, but that is what Vuk Draskovic is counting on, claiming to be the only democratic opposition in Serbia, while, at the same time, standing in Milosevic’s defense.  He is recommending himself both to Milosevic and to the Americans as dependable support, but it seems to me, that appears to everyone as everything but that.

Thus, I believe that Milosevic has already crossed the last line for tactical maneuvers and concessions, and that it is more likely that he will forge ahead to the very end.  His alliance with Seselj is not as pragmatic as Draskovic would like to think.  That alliance is a natural and profound reflection of the progression of that regime, which had to come to Seselj as if by force of gravity.  That is why today Seselj speaks in the name of the regime and appears more authentic than Milosevic himself or his wife.  He is their lawful child and no one has the right to ask that they get rid of him.  If they can no longer continue with him, it does not mean that they can do without him.
Therefore, if Seselj remains, that will mean that the regime has decided to use all means at its disposal in dealing with those whom America wishes to help.  All political activity and all brutality will be directed at the opposition, non-government organizations and students.  Washington’s promise to help them could have even more dire consequences than the NATO threats.  In this sense it would have been better if no one from Washington had made any promises, for if a hunt for “American agents” begins here, any kind of aid will inevitably be too late.

Namely, no one should hope that America can remove this regime in two days.  The opposition, embodied in the Alliance for Change which is just taking off ground, especially should not abandon itself to waiting for America to simply put them in power.  It never happens that way, despite the widespread belief that foreign powers have always determined how things will happen here.  And precisely because they believe this, people here think that it is a matter of dignity to stand up against everything coming from outside, thinking that in any case it is of no consequence, that it does not cost anything and changes things still less.  This means that now the opposition needs to be especially careful and wary, so that American support does not end up costing the loss of support from the citizens of Serbia.