To the Last Drop of Someone Else's Blood

An increasing number of banks is following the farmers' logic by establishing trading companies. The logic is that not only profits but their very survival lies in the possession of goods, not in loads of worthless money. It seems that only the President of Serbia and his "favourite MP", Mr. Seselj, follow the logic of the authors of the economic part of the (in)famous 1986 SANU Memorandum, (often regarded as the Serbian Academy of Arts and Sciences' blueprint for Milosevic's politics); more precisely they are just set in their ways for they must realize that there is no room for their policy in a free and open economy.

It seems that even Radoman Bozovic has abandoned the two aforementioned gentlemen. Mr. Bozovic speaks in the Parliament about the consequences of the blockade, which anyone can forsee by just glancing in the newspapers, while the anti-inflation and stabilization policy is not mentioned anymore, though he has been working on it day and night.

Still, something that was devised under Bozovic's sponsorship was mentioned by professor Ivan Maksimovic at a conference held last Wednesday at the Serbian Academy of Sciences and Arts. Academician Maksimovic lamented that it is now impossible to achieve one of the goals of the anti-inflation and stabilization policy, i.e. to reduce the monthly inflation rate from 100% to 20%.

Some other topics from Prof. Maksimovic's report adequately illustrated the polarization mentioned at the beginning of this article. In short, the blockade was viewed as the consequence of the world's reluctance to accept any kind of new Yugoslavia, though it has not been adequately explained why Yugoslavia would be a thorn in the flesh of the new world order. According to Maksimovic, pressure for the Serbian leadership to step down arose from the inability of "right-wing" forces from America and Europe to control them. Academician Maksimovic spoke about "economists-defeatists" who are, by blaming the current Serbian regime, consciously or inadvertently, falling into the hands of foreign enemies. He also offered a sort of moral and professional platform for economists, obliging them to do their best within the given circumstances.

Finally, Academician Maksimovic agreed with his colleague Nikola Cobeljic that the causes of the difficult situation the Serbian economy has found itself reside in the economic development of Serbia and ex-Yugoslavia, that they are mostly of a political nature and the consequence of years of discrimination against Serbian economy, finally confirmed by the former Yugoslav republics' secession. Prof. Cobeljic spoke of Serbia's potential for becoming a major food exporter, of its important geographic position and other prospects for prosperity. He also said that Serbia, presently at the bottom of the abyss, will rise by activating its national energy.

In short, what was missing from the original Memorandum assessments were those views which regarded the 60s attempts to introduce a market economy as the beginning of all of our troubles, Academician Mihailo Markovic could probably not indulge in this, bearing in mind his role in the Socialist Party of Serbia and its tactical and verbal pro-market stance. However, the reaction to the report of Mr. Miroljub Labus, that market mechanisms and privatization should be initiated at once, regardless of the fact that they are long-lasting processes, shows this idea has not been abandoned by the Academicians. For example, Prof. Cobeljic revealed to those present that a market, in the classical sense, does not exist anywhere in the world, and that governments play important corrective roles in all market economies...

On the same day, at the same time, some 100 meters away from the Academy, the Institute for Economic Sciences organized a discussion about a book of collected papers dealing with Serbia's position in Europe. Though the book itself was an important achievement, the discussion was focused, quite naturally, on the recent situation, on the international sanctions against Serbia and Montenegro.

"I am very upset", said the Institute director Tomislav Popovic, "because great importance is attributed to the conspiracy theory, thoroughly aided by the historical school of thought which is dominant in the Academy, a school which does not perceive changes in the world, which studies the exact places where commas are placed in certain documents from times long-gone..." Mr. Popovic also spoke of the increasing view which doesn't admit the mythical role of the Serbian people and with which Serbia will re-establish links with Europe.

For Mr. Nebojsa Popov the conspiracy theory, from the standpoint of common sense, is pure superstition, if nothing else, simply because it cannot be proved. He said that it was a case of the inability to respond to contemporary challenges, of the exclusion from the world, of an anti-Protestant tradition whose consequences are catastrophic.

A day later, on Thursday, the Institute organized a press conference concerning its economic stabilization program. It is evident that under the present situation economic stabilization is out of the question, but its introduction is at least worth mentioning.

In the Introduction, one of the authors, Dr. Tomislav Popovic, said that it was unlikely that sanctions will last less than three or six months. After they are lifted it will be hard to recuperate from their effects within a period shorter than five years. Mr. Popovic wrote the following:

"Sanctions lasting longer than three months on one hand, without a social and political consensus, the authorities' international legitimacy, and financial support, will inevitably impose a Cuban-like model of an autarchic, highly-regulated economy, with consequent implications on the repression of human rights and freedom, with an eroding standard of living and poverty (75% of the population with an income below the minimum of subsistence), a drastic fall in industrial production (up to 16%-18% of its 1989 level), with a permanent decline of the quality and technological properties of products, increased military spending for the protection of borders as well as of the regime and for the maintenance of a social order. It is a scenario of hopelessness, even if a military intervention and/or a civil war in Serbian lands are avoided."